Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:
The trend in the last couple of runs on the Euro is for the MJO to end up in the WPAC eventually:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/BxMOPdu.gif[img]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/yZwVyHK.png[img]
The TC being modeled out is due to conditions gradually becoming favorable with the departure of the sinking motion that has been over the EPAC for the most of May.
But my question is if the mJO is barely in phase 6 in the 7-10 day range, far western west pacific, would it not be the best conditions in the far eastern EPAC?
Perhaps the Euro is jumping on development way too quickly and may not be until at least mid June, IMO.
I certainly see what you're saying. Perhaps the Euro is hinting at TC genesis due to improved local conditions.
You sir called it, credit to where it is due. My self included were thinking mid to late June. Instead it ended up with two Cat 4s in early June.