Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas
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- Haris
- Category 5
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- Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
- Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas
Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
- cycloneye
- Admin
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The combination of a surface trough and an upper-level low pressure
system is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms over the west-central Gulf of Mexico. This system is
producing strong gusty winds over the northern and northwestern
Gulf. Environmental conditions do not support significant
development, however, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to
continue across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today. This
activity will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana
coasts later today or tonight. For more details on this system,
please see products issued by your local weather office and High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The combination of a surface trough and an upper-level low pressure
system is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms over the west-central Gulf of Mexico. This system is
producing strong gusty winds over the northern and northwestern
Gulf. Environmental conditions do not support significant
development, however, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to
continue across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today. This
activity will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana
coasts later today or tonight. For more details on this system,
please see products issued by your local weather office and High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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- Category 5
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- Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:58 am
Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
Big blow-up of convection centered very generally near 26N and 92W. Any t-storm activity over coastal areas from now on out will include very gusty winds(especially upon the onset of the squall). NHC has been mentioning this.
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-
- Category 1
- Posts: 493
- Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:26 pm
Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
Did the 12z euro shift further north??? Being in Victoria I don’t like that???
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
jaguars_22 wrote:Did the 12z euro shift further north??? Being in Victoria I don’t like that???
Yes it has.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
I’m expecting the Euro rainfall map to have some ridiculous totals after the end of this run and it even looks more widespread than the 0z from what I can tell so far anyway.
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-
- Category 1
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
jaguars_22 wrote:Can anyone post it??
I’m sure someone will in a few. I don’t have access to that.
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- Clearcloudz
- Category 2
- Posts: 523
- Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
- Location: Rosenberg TX
Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
12Z EURO rainfall is a Wow, Wow, Wow
Here is a link where you can see the rainfall in the most recent run and all members as well.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018061712/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180624-0000z.html
Here is a link where you can see the rainfall in the most recent run and all members as well.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018061712/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180624-0000z.html
Last edited by Clearcloudz on Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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-
- Category 5
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- Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:58 am
Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
Well, I only see models when they are posted here. But I can tell you that’s a huge blob of convection now in the GOM. About 26 N (generally). As system works WNW that rainfall should be headed toward the central Texas coast. Also have had smaller squalls move through already in SW La. Pretty gusty. Even without organization this mass of weather is going to bring basic trop storm conditions to the Texas coast.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
Big time totals on the latest euro. Mostly east of I 35 into southeast Texas. Widespread 10+ inch totals from Houston to the College Station area and south with some over 15inches closer to the coast.
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Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
The Euro shifts further north, the ICON model's scenario doesn't look as questionable anymore...
Last edited by wxman22 on Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
What the heck!
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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- Category 5
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- Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
- Location: Lumberton, Texas
Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
Icon model has been most consistent the last 2 days, tonight models should be interesting
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- Clearcloudz
- Category 2
- Posts: 523
- Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
- Location: Rosenberg TX
Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
cycloneye wrote:What the heck!
[im g]https://i.imgur.com/LEieoRV.png[/img]
This could be a problem with the EURO honestly, it recently with through a update 2 weeks ago pointed out by Ryan on twitter.
Last edited by Clearcloudz on Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Clearcloudz
- Category 2
- Posts: 523
- Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
- Location: Rosenberg TX
Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
stormlover2013 wrote:Icon model has been most consistent the last 2 days, tonight models should be interesting
Were starting to say that everyday now. lol
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-
- Category 5
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- Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:58 am
Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
Really time now to start looking at potential (I say potential) disaster situation for parts of Texas. Organization of system (and some is forecast over land) will help to keep the system intact. Could be a big, big, weather story here. Doesn’t have to have a name to do incredible damage.
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- Haris
- Category 5
- Posts: 1808
- Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
- Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas
Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
Re: Disturbed Weather in Gulf
Is a good thing the surface trough axis is going to be moving inland soon, as if its vorticity is becoming better defined this afternoon just offshore.
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