EPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Likely a tropical depression already. Well defined MLC on M/W, and from what I've seen before that if MLC is this well defined on microwave, the LLC is likely constricted and closed.

Fresh GMI pass:

[Yellow Evan]

23/1800 UTC 12.9N 115.3W T1.0/1.0 95E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

The spin is there.

[cycloneye]

100%/100%

Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure located
about 750 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has continued to become more organized over the
past few hours and a tropical depression appears to be forming. If
the recent development trend continues, advisories will be initiated
later tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

.

[Kingarabian]

100%/100%

Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure located
about 750 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has continued to become more organized over the
past few hours and a tropical depression appears to be forming. If
the recent development trend continues, advisories will be initiated
later tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

.

They probably are just waiting on more convection to fire over the center. Else by their definitions, I'm sure if recon was in there, they would've found at least a TD 6-12 hours ago.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks better then Alberto for most its time as a named system.

Recon would probably find it around 40-45 knots.

[cycloneye]

EP, 95, 2018062400, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1156W, 30, 1007, DB

[Yellow Evan]

Looks better then Alberto for most its time as a named system.

Recon would probably find it around 40-45 knots.

I find it very hard to compare weak Atlantic named systems in general, especially a subtropical storm like Alberto, than systems at least somewhat spawned by the monsoon trough in the Eastern and Western Pacific, which tend to have colder cloud tops and more banding. Given that ASCAT seldom shows higher than Dvorak intensity estimates with developed tropical systems only verifies my argument that something like 95E would not be 45 knots with recon and would not necessarily be named in the Gulf of Mexico.

[Kingarabian]

Looks better then Alberto for most its time as a named system.

Recon would probably find it around 40-45 knots.

I find it very hard to compare weak Atlantic named systems in general, especially a subtropical storm like Alberto, than systems at least somewhat spawned by the monsoon trough in the Eastern and Western Pacific, which tend to have colder cloud tops and more banding. Given that ASCAT seldom shows higher than Dvorak intensity estimates with developed tropical systems only verifies my argument that something like 95E would not be 45 knots with recon and would not necessarily be named in the Gulf of Mexico.

Colder cloud tops over developing systems would indicate stronger convection thus higher chance of high wind speed. Not even Alberto, many systems in the open Atlantic that get recon have looked worse than a lot of systems in the EPAC and WPAC -- yet classified higher.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

24/0000 UTC 13.8N 115.9W T1.5/1.5 95E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952018 06/24/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 39 40 38 34 29 25 20 DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 39 40 38 34 29 25 20 DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 31 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 13 14 11 8 8 2 7 4 4 5 7 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 1 1 0 5 2 5 5 3 6 7
SHEAR DIR 64 55 38 30 21 3 311 318 313 284 227 200 188
SST (C) 28.5 27.9 27.3 26.6 26.0 24.4 23.2 22.9 22.5 22.6 22.8 22.9 22.8
POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 137 130 123 107 94 91 87 88 90 91 91
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 62 61 56 50 49 45 44 40 38 35
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 5 5 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 44 52 44 43 36 35 34 30 34 37 43 32 29
200 MB DIV 56 65 53 30 11 15 -3 -25 -17 -21 -30 -17 -20
700-850 TADV -4 -7 -6 -4 -2 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 5 0 6
LAND (KM) 1161 1085 992 909 866 829 932 1096 1239 1373 1502 1649 1831
LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.7 15.7 16.8 17.7 19.1 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.4 20.7 21.2
LONG(DEG W) 115.6 115.6 115.6 115.8 116.2 117.5 119.5 121.5 123.5 125.4 127.4 129.3 131.6
STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 12
HEAT CONTENT 14 9 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 16. 15. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 8. 4. -1. -5. -10. -15. -22.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 115.6

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 06/24/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.39 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 145.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.72 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 06/24/18 00 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING

[talkon]

Best track now has it as a TD.

EP, 05, 2018062400, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1156W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 240, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, epA52018 to ep052018,

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018
800 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 115.7W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES




Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018
800 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Over the past several hours, the low pressure system located around
115W has developed a well-defined surface circulation. The
convective pattern has also improved, with a primary band wrapping
around the western semicircle of the cyclone, and a secondary band
to the southeast and south. The system has therefore been
designated as Tropical Depression Five-E with an initial intensity
of 30 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak classification.

Although the lack of deep convection in the northeast quadrant
suggests that some moderate easterly wind shear and dry air are
present, warm SSTs below the cyclone will likely support slight
slight strengthening for the next 24 to 36 hours. The depression is
forecast to cross a sharp SST gradient and become embedded within a
far more stable environment on Monday. This should cause it to lose
all deep convection and gradually spin down as a remnant low through
the middle of next week. The NHC forecast conservatively shows the
system as a tropical cyclone through 72 h, but it could become a
remnant low sooner than that. The official intensity forecast is
very similar to the intensity consensus IVCN, and the model guidance
is in good agreement that only modest strengthening will occur over
the next day or two.

The depression has been moving generally northward and the initial
motion estimate is 355/8 kt. The dynamical models are in good
agreement that the shallow cyclone will move continue moving
northward for the next 24-36 h, steered by a weak low to mid-level
cut-off low to its west. After that time, the weakening system
should become increasingly steered by the low-level tradewind flow,
causing it to turn toward the around day 4. The official forecast
lies near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and
closely follows the track consensus TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 14.3N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 15.6N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 17.4N 116.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 18.7N 117.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 19.5N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 20.3N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 20.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0000Z 20.0N 129.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018
200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Although convective banding features have become less distinct since
the previous advisory, a small mass of deep convection with cold
cloud tops of -80C to -83C has developed over and to the south of
the previously exposed low-level circulation center. Weak outflow is
restricted to the southern semicircle due to modest northeasterly
vertical wind shear. The intensity has been maintained at 30 kt
based on a consensus satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from
TAFB, SAB, UW-CIMSS ADT.

The depression has continued to move northward and the motion
estimate is now 355/09 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly
packed around the previous advisory track, so no significant changes
were made. The various dynamical models remain in good agreement
that the cyclone will move northward around the east side of a
mid-/upper-level low for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in the
system moving over cooler water and weakening. The more shallow
cyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical
ridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed
by a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded
in the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast
track is just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies
close to the consensus track models TVCE and HCCA.

The SHIPS intensity model guidance is forecasting the vertical shear
ahead of the depression to gradually decrease to 5-10 kt during the
next 72 hours. However, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26C SSTs
in about 24 hours or so, and also be moving into a drier and more
stable environment by 36 h and beyond. The result should be only
modest strengthening during the next 24 h, followed by steady
weakening thereafter. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant
low by Wednesday, and possibly dissipate by Thursday or Friday.
However, a 120-h point was included in order to maintain continuity
with the previous advisory. The new NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and is close to a blend of the
HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 15.1N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 16.4N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 19.0N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 19.6N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 20.3N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0600Z 19.7N 130.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

LLC almost centered with the newly developed CDO:

[cycloneye]

If that persists,it will be TS Daniel in the next advisory.

[cycloneye]

SAB up to 2.5:

24/1200 UTC 15.8N 115.8W T2.5/2.5 05E -- East Pacific

TXPZ25 KNES 241226
TCSENP

A. 05E (NONAME)

B. 24/1200Z

C. 15.8N

D. 115.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CENTER LOCATED LT 0.5 DEG FROM DG RESULTS IN A DT OF
3.0. MET IS 2.0 AND PT IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018
800 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

The cyclone has continued to maintain a small mass of deep
convection near the center during the past several hours, with the
low-level center under the convection. In addition, recent
microwave overpasses indicate that the system has developed a small
inner core. Based on this and various satellite intensity estimates
of 35 kt, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Daniel.

The initial motion is now 350/9. There is no change in the track
forecast philosophy. The various dynamical models remain in good
agreement that Daniel will move northward around the east side of a
mid-/upper-level low for the next 12-24 hours, causing the system to
move over cooler water and weaken. The resulting more shallow
cyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical
ridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed
by a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded
in the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast is
again an update of the previous track.

The forecast track brings the center of Daniel over sea surface
temperatures below 26C in less than 24 h, and this should cause
weakening even though the storm is in a light shear environment.
Thus, the intensity forecast continues the scenario of the
previous forecast by indicating a little more strengthening,
followed by steady weakening over the cooler water. The latest
dynamical models are consistent in showing the system dissipating
faster than previously forecast, and the new forecast follows that
trend by showing dissipation after 96 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 16.0N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.2N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 19.5N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 20.0N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

EP, 05, 2018062418, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1162W, 40, 1003, TS