Kingarabian wrote:NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:
There's no question that the atmosphere has switched to El Nino, and that we've entered in an El Nino event.
Westerly wind anomalies have dominated the entire equatorial Pacific for the most of June. It's just a matter of time before the Nino regions SST readings shoot up.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/QUM4X81.png[/mg]
Sorry, but I want to nitpick a little since that's just me
Yes there are westerly wind anomalies, and the atmosphere has begun to cooperate. However, we are still in a neutral state, but it is transitioning nicely to Niño. Not that this would supress any Niño event, though. In fact, I'm starting to think a moderate El Niño is a definite possibility
It's hard to see because very rarely does ENSO flip so suddenly, although we've had a lot of hints through late winter and the Spring (MJO activity, downwelling Kelvin's, lack of sustained strong trade bursts). It's almost impossible to see this much westerly anomalies dominating the entire Pacific ocean unless the background state allows it. Thus, I firmly believe it's almost impossible for ENSO to be in a neutral state, at least atmospherically. We may have been in neutral through May, but everything flipped during the first week of June.
We are starting to get the factors for a Niño, especially towards the surface, but there appear to be a few factors missing. Usually, you don't get the complete coupling until a Niño event is underway, but that will come soon. Besides, there's enough support already to push it into Niño territory within a couple of months. I do agree with you though.
About those anomalies, it could be a dataset problem, I'm not seeing a robust signal like that anywhere else. However, trades are still weaker than normal there
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and
in no way is official. Please refer to
http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon:
http://cyclonicwx.com