2018 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

Future 97E (likely to be Fabio) is probably going to be a strong storm. However, the [bold]GFS often has a tendency to over-intensify systems[/bold], so the 905 mb may be too intense. If I had to take a guess on the intensity, I would say strong Category 4 considering the relative rarity of Category 5 hurricanes in the EPAC.

This might be true in the Atlantic (especially phantoms) but in the EPAC it often can be the other way around. Aletta and Bud. This basin RI seems to happen with frequency when conditions present.

[Kingarabian]

Future 97E (likely to be Fabio) is probably going to be a strong storm. However, the GFS often has a tendency to over-intensify systems, so the 905 mb may be too intense. If I had to take a guess on the intensity, I would say strong Category 4 considering the relative rarity of Category 5 hurricanes in the EPAC.

It believe it did a good job intensity wise with Aletta, Bud, and even Carlotta, especially compared to the Euro. In fact, those first 3 named storms became stronger than what the GFS originally modeled out.

While tough to happen due to the lack of recon, if we factor in the models underestimating intensities so far, Emilia and Fabio could become back to back category 5's. The STR just needs to be stronger to allow Emilia to become that strong. I think it's a very high chance that Emilia and Fabio will at least be category 4 twins.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS run finishing up with Gilma becoming a major hurricane (on higher resolution) and future Hector entering the picture:

[Yellow Evan]

Future 97E (likely to be Fabio) is probably going to be a strong storm. However, the [bold]GFS often has a tendency to over-intensify systems[/bold], so the 905 mb may be too intense. If I had to take a guess on the intensity, I would say strong Category 4 considering the relative rarity of Category 5 hurricanes in the EPAC.

This might be true in the Atlantic (especially phantoms) but in the EPAC it often can be the other way around. Aletta and Bud. This basin RI seems to happen with frequency when conditions present.

Inner core dynamics are heavily at play for strong hurricanes so I'd not expect this to become a Category 5 but to say the GFS has a tendency to over-intensify systems is oversimplistic, even if it is sometimes true with very strong hurricanes. What the GFS run does tell you is we're gonna see a very potent hurricane, and the very low pressures yield one with fairly cold cloud tops, indicating some chance at becoming a Category 5.

[Kingarabian]

CFS backing away and trending towards lower rising VP200 anomalies over the IO for the middle of July. Also correcting to show more anomalous rising VP200 anomalies in the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

0%/80%

A tropical wave over the southwestern Caribbean Sea should move into
the eastern Pacific tonight or Tuesday. Development is anticipated
as the system moves westward away from Central America, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Ntxw]

Future Fabio will probably have a big tail according to the GFS. Reminds me of Marie '14. I agree with posts above inner structures and timing will likely play a role if it achieves Cat 5 or not. Regardless we're looking at a big, potent system that has been well modeled in advance.



Marie

[Yellow Evan]

Good catch - almost every mid to upper end Cat 5 worldwide has a southwest ITCTZ feeder tail.

[Weather150]

Now that the NOAA operations are back to normal, more EPAC model watching to commence!

[cycloneye]

00z GFS with the trio Emilia,Fabio and Gilma. From hours 144 thru 180.

[cycloneye]

From hours 180 thru 240 you can see Emilia weakening but Fabio bottoms to 916 mbs and Gilma is very strong.

[Ntxw]

Tries for Hector at the end of the run (way out there though). No less, a conveyor belt of 4 TCs. Fabio and Gilma may be twin strong hurricanes

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over Nicaragua and Costa Rica is expected
to move into the eastern Pacific by Tuesday night. Development is
anticipated as the system moves westward away from Central America,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Chris90]

My question is how much heat content is there available? It seems to be a conveyor belt of fairly similar tracks in a short period of time, if both Emilia and Fabio become majors, would they leave enough warm water for Gilma to work with, or would they upwell enough cold water without enough time for sufficient recovery that it would limit Gilma's potential?

[cycloneye]

00z Euro develops Emilia,Fabio,Gilma and Hector.

[cycloneye]

My question is how much heat content is there available? It seems to be a conveyor belt of fairly similar tracks in a short period of time, if both Emilia and Fabio become majors, would they leave enough warm water for Gilma to work with, or would they upwell enough cold water without enough time for sufficient recovery that it would limit Gilma's potential?

Good question. Not so much Emilia but if Fabio turns into what the models have (Cat 3 and higher) it could upwell waters but if Gilma takes a track a little south of Fabio's,it wont be affected much so it depends on Gilma's track. That is how I see it but others may have a different take.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS with the trio of Emilia,Fabio and Gilma.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over Nicaragua and Costa Rica is expected
to move into the eastern Pacific by tonight. Development is
anticipated as the system moves westward away from Central America,
and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of the
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[gatorcane]

06z GFS with the trio of Emilia,Fabio and Gilma.

http://oi66.tinypic.com/23sb1jd.jpg

Wow quite a wave train in the EPAC, looks like the EPAC is going to rack up a lot of ACE over the next couple of weeks.

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
Models still forecasting Fabio to be one of the most beautiful hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific in 5-days or so.
#TropicalUpdate
Potential for Category 4.