2018 WPAC Season
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
GFS still showing the long range cyclones.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
It wouldn't surprise me if July ends up being fairly active because of a couple of these factors. The warm pool, while not currently not in an El Nino location, is still biased a little easterly than normal, which may help give systems a little more room to grow. Combined with the cool waters west of the Maritime Continent, this is also a good look for focusing rising motion over the WPac. The Mei-yu will need to clear out first though.
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- mrbagyo
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Convection is pretty active near the dateline and the Marshall islands and there could be a weak circulation embedded in it.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
mrbagyo wrote:
Convection is pretty active near the dateline and the Marshall islands and there could be a weak circulation embedded in it.
Won't be around for long.
Extensive cloudiness, widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms
remain spread across Kosrae and the Marshall Islands...and near/just
south of Pohnpei and Chuuk. A near-equatorial trough remains curved
across the region, possibly with weak circulations embedded within
the trough. Models show this trough slowly shifting northward as it
weakens over the next 24 to 36 hours. GFS maintains much drier
conditions across the region by Friday night with light/variable
winds eventually shifting to the east and northeast on Saturday.
Main weather concern remains the broad area of disturbed weather
near Kosrae and the Marshall Islands in the next 24 hours. Will
watch closely to see that weather conditions do taper off as models
indicate.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
EURO and GFS same timeframe but EURO weaker in short. EURO has it passing north of Okinawa...AGAIN...
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
EURO and GFS still has the Okinawa system. EURO keeps it weak while GFS has alternating scenarios...Major typhoon to nothing at all...
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Our next major longtracker?
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
The models drop the Okinawa system and delays the formation of the long tracker.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
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- doomhaMwx
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
The models take that area of convection near the Marianas towards the Ryukyu islands.
Perhaps some weak/slight development possible.
Perhaps some weak/slight development possible.
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- mrbagyo
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Too much TUTT cells around it.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
GFS has another typhoon passing near Guam long range.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
The past couple of runs has been entertaining to say the least.
00Z
06Z
12Z
00Z
06Z
12Z
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
Over the West Pacific, the GFS ensembles show potential development early in the period east of the Philippines, with a second potential tropical cyclone forming near or north of Guam. Both of these potential formation regions were covered with a single high confidence shape during Week-1 of the outlook period. For Week-2, additional tropical cyclone development is possible once again in the vicinity of Guam, with the threat extending northwestward well east of the Philippines.
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
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