EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

There is still some shear but that should abate on Sunday and be light thru the next few days.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS coming in strongest than the past 7 runs:

[Yellow Evan]

This has decent conditions for the next 3 days so while the next 24 hours will be key, this is a good bet to become a Category 3 or 4 hurricane still I think.

[cycloneye]

Much stronger. From 1004 mbs at 12z to 18z at 982 mbs on 54 hours.

[cycloneye]

964 mbs in 66 hours.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS, 952mb @ hour 72.

[cycloneye]

945 mbs at hour 78.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS back to being bullish.

[cycloneye]

941 mbs is the lowest pressure in this 18z GFS run.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS is also considerably more NW than the 12zUKMET. If the UKMET solution of a stronger ridge verifies, then there's a stronger liklihood that future Fabio will be stronger.

[cycloneye]

This is interesting.

@GigEm12_Steph
The last two EastPac systems looked remarkably similar prior to being declared TDs. Note the amount of lightning observed by GLM in the rain band north of the center. (left) 12 h prior to TD06 [now Emilia] on 27 Jun; (right) 12 h prior to TD07 on 30 Jun.

 https://twitter.com/GigEm12_Steph/status/1013172515177410565




@EricBlake12
I said the same thing yesterday! Same banding and shear configuration, although weaker now

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1013191227280420865

[cycloneye]

TXPZ27 KNES 010016
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)

B. 30/2345Z

C. 10.8N

D. 104.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH THE LLCC LESS THAN 75 NM FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST FOR A
DT=2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track remains as TD.

EP, 07, 2018070100, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1048W, 30, 1005, TD

[cycloneye]

Wow,look at SHIP.

[cycloneye]

Bad microwave pass.We need ASCAT.

[Yellow Evan]

Red line here is 15-16N.

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SEVEN EP072018 07/01/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 48 57 76 91 105 114 109 101 90 78
V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 48 57 76 91 105 114 109 101 90 78
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 42 48 64 84 105 110 100 85 67 48
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 6 6 7 4 9 8 9 8 7 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 1 0 2 -1 2 4 7 11 14
SHEAR DIR 53 35 21 39 22 20 346 63 67 53 17 359 273
SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 27.1 26.9 26.2 23.4 23.0
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 147 145 145 152 151 151 136 134 127 98 93
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 -53.2 -54.1 -52.6 -52.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 3 2
700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 70 73 73 71 67 66 62 60 56 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 21 23 28 34 40 45 43 41 37 32
850 MB ENV VOR 44 45 47 46 51 57 71 72 80 67 64 45 33
200 MB DIV 69 50 43 49 78 80 102 90 18 -40 22 30 -11
700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 0 0 -4 -2 -9 -2 2 2 4 27
LAND (KM) 786 800 833 869 905 985 1091 1119 1183 1264 1398 1489 1573
LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.4 16.4 17.4 18.7 20.1
LONG(DEG W) 104.8 106.0 107.2 108.3 109.4 111.5 113.6 115.7 118.0 120.5 123.2 125.7 128.0
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 13 13 14 13 12
HEAT CONTENT 32 41 51 43 36 31 13 8 2 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 43.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 15. 21. 25. 28. 28. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 11. 16. 25. 38. 37. 34. 28. 20.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 19. 15. 7. 1. -4. -7. -10.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 18. 27. 46. 61. 75. 84. 79. 71. 60. 48.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 104.8

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 SEVEN 07/01/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 7.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 6.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.37 2.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 3.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -4.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 25.1% 24.4% 17.0% 11.6% 21.3% 23.0% 29.4%
Logistic: 2.2% 16.2% 8.2% 3.5% 1.1% 12.8% 39.9% 26.4%
Bayesian: 2.0% 40.8% 19.4% 5.7% 1.1% 0.7% 5.7% 5.3%
Consensus: 5.6% 27.4% 17.4% 8.7% 4.6% 11.6% 22.8% 20.4%
DTOPS: 3.0% 15.0% 9.0% 4.0% 1.0% 37.0% 45.0% 25.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 SEVEN 07/01/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[1900hurricane]

Heh.

 https://twitter.com/BadPasses/status/1013217111886454784

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

The depression is gradually becoming better organized. Deep
convective bands have been gaining curvature, but remain limited to
the southeast of the estimated center. Since the Dvorak
classifications are unchanged at 2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, the
initial wind speed is held at that value. This intensity estimate
is also consistent with the latest ADT values from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin. Even though the system is currently not
very strong, the circulation is quite large with the outer bands
extending about 300 n mi from the center.

The system is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. This general
motion is expected during the next several days as a mid-level
ridge to the northeast of the system remains the primary steering
feature. The track models are in very good agreement, and only
small changes were made to the previous NHC prediction. The
cyclone is expected to remain out to sea through the forecast
period.

Environmental conditions are quite ideal for the depression to
strengthen during the next few days with SSTs of 28-29C, vertical
wind shear less than 10 kt, and a fairly moist low- to mid-level
air mass. The models respond to these favorable conditions by
unanimously showing the depression becoming a hurricane within the
next few days. However, the models disagree on how strong the
system might get before it reaches cooler waters in a few days. The
SHIPS and LGEM models show the system reaching major hurricane
strength while the HWRF and COAMPS-TC models are notably weaker.
Regardless of how strong the system becomes, the strengthening trend
should end shortly after 3 days when the cyclone is expected to move
over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
environment. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the
previous one and is close to the HCCA and ICON consensus models.
This forecast is slightly below the models in the short term as the
large size of the system could make the initial strengthening
process more gradual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 11.3N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 11.7N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 12.4N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 13.1N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 13.7N 113.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 15.4N 117.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 17.8N 122.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 20.7N 127.9W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Deep convection developing.

[Yellow Evan]

Really nice banding and developing a CDO - one that is often a hint of significant deepening and one that would lead to a mid-level tropical storm sooner rather than later, although I'm mentally distracted by other stuff like the NBA FA right now, so this doesn't have my full attention yet, at least compared to normal.