See Pohl and Matthews (2007) for more on this topic (AMS Journal hyperlinks aren’t working atm, this is a link to the abstract): https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C47&q=mjo+phase+speed+enso+&btnG=#d=gs_qabs&p=&u=%23p%3DRMN_e3289HYJ
![Image](http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif)
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Eric Webb wrote:The Eurosip has an obvious +ENSO bias however this should be a warning/lesson to all here that you shouldn't put all your eggs into one basket especially when it comes to ENSO. Forecasting ENSO based on large-scale conditions at hand is one thing, but forecasting the conditions based on the expected tendencies of the model that's predicting ENSO is definitely not the way to approach this because it implants another unnecessary layer of error into said forecast.
LarryWx wrote:Eric Webb wrote:The Eurosip has an obvious +ENSO bias however this should be a warning/lesson to all here that you shouldn't put all your eggs into one basket especially when it comes to ENSO. Forecasting ENSO based on large-scale conditions at hand is one thing, but forecasting the conditions based on the expected tendencies of the model that's predicting ENSO is definitely not the way to approach this because it implants another unnecessary layer of error into said forecast.
This is probably good advice but I still think it will be interesting to follow how Eurosip does. Also, keep in mind that Eurosip isn't just one model but instead is an ensemble of various models. And all I was emphasizing in these posts was trying to forecast ASO, not the ultimate event strength. I know you don't think ASO, itself, is important in the grand scheme of things and it may not be, but several here had been discussing ASO and that's what got me to jump in about that trimonth.
NotSparta wrote:LarryWx wrote:The June Eurosip recently updated and is a little warmer than the May update with low end weak El Niño (near +0.5 in Niño 3.4) for ASO averaged out with it warming to near +0.6 in Oct. This near +0.5 compares to near +0.35 for ASO in the May update.
Consistent with this warming, it has even higher pressures in the MDR for ASO from near 30W westward through the Caribbean and the GOM vs the already pretty high pressures shown in the May update. This update now has slightly higher pressure than the June ASO forecast for 2014. The June forecast for ASO 2015 is still somewhat higher with the pressures and is the only June forecast showing higher ASO pressures vs 2018. The message is clearly to expect a pretty quiet season in the MDR through the GOM overall with perhaps near normal north of 30-35N east of the CONUS to possibly up to near the NE US/SE Canada assuming this forecast has a decent clue.
Are you still thinking warm neutral for ASO? It's looking increasingly like El Niño to me
hamburgerman7070 wrote:I think the million dollar question aside from if a niño is present in fall/winter is will we or could we have a set up that favors cold air to come south, which was prevalent in 2009-10 niño.
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