WPAC: PRAPIROON - Post-Tropical
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- wxman57
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon
Looking worse by the minute now. Definitely no longer a typhoon.
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon
Still looks fairly well-organized to me.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon
TXPQ29 KNES 021527
TCSWNP
A. 09W (PRAPIROON)
B. 02/1440Z
C. 30.1N
D. 128.0E
E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG AND EMBEDDED
IN DG FOR A DT=4.5 INCLUDING 0.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=4.0. PT=4.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LEE
TPPN10 PGTW 021513
A. TYPHOON 09W (PRAPIROON)
B. 02/1440Z
C. 30.01N
D. 127.91E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T4.0/4.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.5. MET/PT ARE 4.0.
DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0923Z 28.90N 127.37E SSMS
02/1137Z 29.33N 127.75E MMHS
ZOUFALY
TCSWNP
A. 09W (PRAPIROON)
B. 02/1440Z
C. 30.1N
D. 128.0E
E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG AND EMBEDDED
IN DG FOR A DT=4.5 INCLUDING 0.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=4.0. PT=4.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LEE
TPPN10 PGTW 021513
A. TYPHOON 09W (PRAPIROON)
B. 02/1440Z
C. 30.01N
D. 127.91E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T4.0/4.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.5. MET/PT ARE 4.0.
DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0923Z 28.90N 127.37E SSMS
02/1137Z 29.33N 127.75E MMHS
ZOUFALY
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon
What a comeback.
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon
WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (PRAPIROON)
WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR
SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM JMA DEPICT CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL AND SHIFT EASTWARD OF A RAGGED 8 NM EYE,
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
RAGGED EYE THAT LINED UP VERY WELL WITH A LLC FEATURE IN THE 020923Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE LOW RANGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM T4.0 TO T4.5
(65-77 KNOTS) AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES CONTINUED STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, THE SAME WESTERLIES ARE CAUSING
MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VWS AND INCREASING. ALONG-TRACK SSTS, FOR
NOW, ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29 CELSIUS. TY 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY PRAPIROON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AS THE
CYCLONE CLIPS SASEBO, JAPAN AROUND TAU 18 THEN TRANSIT THROUGH THE
KOREA STRAIT. AFTER TAU 12, 09W WILL ENTER THE COLD WATERS OF THE SEA
OF JAPAN (25 CELSIUS AND BELOW), BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION,
CROSS THE NORTHERN TIP OF HONSHU, AND BY TAU 72, TY 09W WILL EXIT
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST SOUTH OF HOKKAIDO AS A COLD CORE
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (PRAPIROON)
WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR
SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM JMA DEPICT CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL AND SHIFT EASTWARD OF A RAGGED 8 NM EYE,
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
RAGGED EYE THAT LINED UP VERY WELL WITH A LLC FEATURE IN THE 020923Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE LOW RANGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM T4.0 TO T4.5
(65-77 KNOTS) AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES CONTINUED STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, THE SAME WESTERLIES ARE CAUSING
MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VWS AND INCREASING. ALONG-TRACK SSTS, FOR
NOW, ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29 CELSIUS. TY 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY PRAPIROON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AS THE
CYCLONE CLIPS SASEBO, JAPAN AROUND TAU 18 THEN TRANSIT THROUGH THE
KOREA STRAIT. AFTER TAU 12, 09W WILL ENTER THE COLD WATERS OF THE SEA
OF JAPAN (25 CELSIUS AND BELOW), BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION,
CROSS THE NORTHERN TIP OF HONSHU, AND BY TAU 72, TY 09W WILL EXIT
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST SOUTH OF HOKKAIDO AS A COLD CORE
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 142552
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon
Still a Typhoon per JMA.
TY 1807 (Prapiroon)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 2 July 2018
<Analysis at 18 UTC, 2 July>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N30°40' (30.7°)
E127°50' (127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 440 km (240 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)
<Estimate for 19 UTC, 2 July>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N30°55' (30.9°)
E127°50' (127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 440 km (240 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 3 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°10' (33.2°)
E128°40' (128.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 3 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N35°50' (35.8°)
E130°55' (130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N40°25' (40.4°)
E136°40' (136.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 2 July 2018
<Analysis at 18 UTC, 2 July>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N30°40' (30.7°)
E127°50' (127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 440 km (240 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)
<Estimate for 19 UTC, 2 July>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N30°55' (30.9°)
E127°50' (127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 440 km (240 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 3 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°10' (33.2°)
E128°40' (128.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 3 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N35°50' (35.8°)
E130°55' (130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N40°25' (40.4°)
E136°40' (136.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon
Numerical models basically nailed the intensity forecast this time while the official agencies had Prapiroon weakening too quickly.
JTWC up to 75KT again at 18Z while JMA is at 960mb/65KT.
JTWC up to 75KT again at 18Z while JMA is at 960mb/65KT.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon
Closeup of landfall area.
WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (PRAPIROON)
WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TY 09W HAS REDEVELOPED AN EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 021800Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS THE 12NM WIDE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND IS HEDGED BETWEEN A 021810Z ADT ESTIMATE OF T4.8 (84 KNOTS),
A 021000Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 91 KNOTS AND AN RJTD DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TY 09W IS EXPERIENCING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS). TY 09W IS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD, AHEAD OF A WEST TO EAST MOVING TROUGH AND AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AND TROUGH. TY 09W WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
TRACK MORE TOWARD THE EAST AS THE STR WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH TRACKS
EASTWARD. AS TY 09W TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36 AND
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. AS TY 09W TRACKS INTO
THE SEA OF JAPAN IT WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (NEAR 25 DEGREES CELSIUS) WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon
WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (PRAPIROON)
WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THAT TY 09W IS STARTING TO BECOME RAGGED AND NO LONGER HAS AN
EYE IN MSI, HOWEVER A PARTIAL MICROWAVE EYE REMAINS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 022151Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
THE REMAINS OF THE MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS
IS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND HEDGED
BELOW AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T5.1 (92 KNOTS) BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TY 09W IS EXPERIENCING EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS).
HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE (25 TO 27
DEGREES CELSIUS). TY 09W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD, AHEAD OF A WEST
TO EAST MOVING TROUGH AND AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
TO THE EAST.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AND TROUGH. TY 09W WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
TRACK MORE TOWARD THE EAST AS THE STR WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD. AS TY 09W TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY EASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 48 AND CONTINUE EASTWARD AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
THROUGH TAU 72. AS TY 09W TRACKS INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN IT WILL ALSO
ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (NEAR 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS) WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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- doomhaMwx
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Typhoon
Based on recent radar imagery and a bullseye ASCAT pass, the typhoon's center appears to be passing, or has just passed, over Japan's Goto islands (off the west coast of Kyushu).
At 11am-12pm JST today, a station in Fukue city in the Goto islands recorded sustained winds of 71kph(19.8 m/s) with a gust of 137kph(38 m/s), and a SLP of 970.9 mb.
https://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today ... oupCode=60
At 11am-12pm JST today, a station in Fukue city in the Goto islands recorded sustained winds of 71kph(19.8 m/s) with a gust of 137kph(38 m/s), and a SLP of 970.9 mb.
https://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today ... oupCode=60
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- cycloneye
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- Posts: 142552
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Tropical Storm
WDPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (PRAPIROON)
WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE RAGGED EYE HAS
BECOME CLOUD FILLED AS CONVECTION BEGAN TO ELONGATE AND SHEAR WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, CURVED BANDS REMAIN TIGHTLY
WRAPPED INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN ENLARGED BUT WELL-DEFINED LLC ON A COMPOSITE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM JMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS
IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT
IS BEING OFFSET BY INCREASING VWS. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS ARE BECOMING
UNFAVORABLE AT 26 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING AHEAD OF A WEST TO
EAST MOVING TROUGH ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY PRAPIROON WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY TAU 12, IT WILL ENTER THE COLD SEA OF
JAPAN (25 CELSIUS OR LOWER) AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
BY TAU 36, IT WILL COMPLETE ETT AND BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW
WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. BY TAU 48, TY 09W WILL HAVE MADE
LANDFALL IN HOKKAIDO WITH WINDS INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE GRADIENT
FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (PRAPIROON)
WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE RAGGED EYE HAS
BECOME CLOUD FILLED AS CONVECTION BEGAN TO ELONGATE AND SHEAR WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, CURVED BANDS REMAIN TIGHTLY
WRAPPED INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN ENLARGED BUT WELL-DEFINED LLC ON A COMPOSITE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM JMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS
IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT
IS BEING OFFSET BY INCREASING VWS. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS ARE BECOMING
UNFAVORABLE AT 26 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING AHEAD OF A WEST TO
EAST MOVING TROUGH ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY PRAPIROON WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY TAU 12, IT WILL ENTER THE COLD SEA OF
JAPAN (25 CELSIUS OR LOWER) AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
BY TAU 36, IT WILL COMPLETE ETT AND BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW
WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. BY TAU 48, TY 09W WILL HAVE MADE
LANDFALL IN HOKKAIDO WITH WINDS INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE GRADIENT
FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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- doomhaMwx
- Category 5
- Posts: 2432
- Age: 25
- Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
- Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Severe Tropical Storm
Center is now passing near/over Japan's Tsushima island in the Korea Strait...
A station in the island recorded gusts up to 75kph(21m/s) and a SLP near 974mb @ 6-7pm JST this evening.
https://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today ... oupCode=60
https://i.imgur.com/iWBXMHV.png
A station in the island recorded gusts up to 75kph(21m/s) and a SLP near 974mb @ 6-7pm JST this evening.
https://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today ... oupCode=60
https://i.imgur.com/iWBXMHV.png
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- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6059
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Severe Tropical Storm
JMA still has Prapiroon as a Severe Tropical Storm instead of a tropical storm.
STS 1807 (Prapiroon)
Issued at 11:45 UTC, 3 July 2018
<Analysis at 11 UTC, 3 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N34°20' (34.3°)
E129°30' (129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 440 km (240 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Estimate for 12 UTC, 3 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N34°30' (34.5°)
E129°35' (129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 440 km (240 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 3 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N36°40' (36.7°)
E131°25' (131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N39°40' (39.7°)
E134°50' (134.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 5 July>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N41°25' (41.4°)
E139°00' (139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 986 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
Issued at 11:45 UTC, 3 July 2018
<Analysis at 11 UTC, 3 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N34°20' (34.3°)
E129°30' (129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 440 km (240 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Estimate for 12 UTC, 3 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N34°30' (34.5°)
E129°35' (129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 440 km (240 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 3 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N36°40' (36.7°)
E131°25' (131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N39°40' (39.7°)
E134°50' (134.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 5 July>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N41°25' (41.4°)
E139°00' (139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 986 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 142552
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Severe Tropical Storm
STS 1807 (Prapiroon)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 3 July 2018
<Analysis at 18 UTC, 3 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N35°35' (35.6°)
E130°50' (130.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 440 km (240 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N38°50' (38.8°)
E134°20' (134.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N41°00' (41.0°)
E137°55' (137.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 3 July 2018
<Analysis at 18 UTC, 3 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N35°35' (35.6°)
E130°50' (130.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 440 km (240 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N38°50' (38.8°)
E134°20' (134.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N41°00' (41.0°)
E137°55' (137.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 142552
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Tropical Storm
JTWC 03:00 UTC:
WTPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 37.4N 132.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.4N 132.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 40.2N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 41.6N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 42.9N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 38.1N 133.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM
NORTH OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 37.4N 132.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.4N 132.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 40.2N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 41.6N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 42.9N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 38.1N 133.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM
NORTH OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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- doomhaMwx
- Category 5
- Posts: 2432
- Age: 25
- Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
- Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
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Re: WPAC: PRAPIROON - Tropical Storm
LOW
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 4 July 2018
<Analysis at 06 UTC, 4 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
LOW
Center position N40°00' (40.0°)
E134°00' (134.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 986 hPa
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 4 July 2018
<Analysis at 06 UTC, 4 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
LOW
Center position N40°00' (40.0°)
E134°00' (134.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 986 hPa
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