ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[CyclonicFury]

Though it might be the new ascat pass that pushed them to issue the special outlook.. showing a closed circulation now.

That's not a new pass - that pass is from last night. The time stamp at the bottom is when the pass is from, not the time stamps on the top

[Aric Dunn]

Though it might be the new ascat pass that pushed them to issue the special outlook.. showing a closed circulation now.

[img]https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/atmosphere/ascat/MetopB/WINDS/cur_50km/zooms/WMBas26.png[/ig]

That's not a new pass - that pass is from last night. The time stamp at the bottom is when the pass is from, not the time stamps on the top

right coppied the wrong one.. ugh. i fix.

[Aric Dunn]

well even without the recent ASCAT... I think it is safe to say we have a TD....

[GCANE]

Looking at IR and the indicated grey cloud tops, appears 3 Hot Towers firing off simultaneously

[gatorcane]

This invest is a good example of how SAL is not necessarily a cyclone killer. The invest is organizing despite the SAL all around it. The main issue for long-term development is the increasing WSW upper-level winds it will encounter as it nears the Lesser Antilles which are pretty typical for this time of year.

[Aric Dunn]

This invest is a good example of how SAL is not necessarily a cyclone killer. The invest is organizing despite the SAL all around it. The main issue for long-term development is the increasing WSW upper-level winds it will encounter as it nears the Lesser Antilles which are pretty typical for this time of year.

the ese shear/ mid and upper level winds have really allowed deep moisture to come in from the south and the system has created a nice buffer between the SAL to the north. the pouch itself is quite moist actually.

[GCANE]

The convection that was south of the CoC earlier today and merged into the vort obviously moistened mid-layers and contributed significantly to intensification.
WV now looking really good IMHO.
This may have enough momentum to easily make it to 50W.
After that, still need to wait and see.

[cycloneye]

Very good looking now with hot towers popping up.

[NotSparta]

I'm figuring this is what made the NHC bump up chances

[Aric Dunn]

Very moist pouch. saturated column and good moisture feed. should have a TD tonight and TS tomorrow if it can keep the SAL out.

[GCANE]

700 to 850mb vort coming together.
Those towers should kick it up a couple more notches.

[Aric Dunn]

Another new microwave. still improving. convection nearly wrapped all the way around already.

I smell an upgrade soon..

[NotSparta]

Another new microwave. still improving. convection nearly wrapped all the way around already.

I smell an upgrade soon..

[img]https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc18/ATL/95L.INVEST/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/20180704.2044.f17.x.91h.95LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-103N-365W.091pc.jpg[img]

I think that's what made them release the STWO

[floridasun78]

how long will be stay as td if form 48 to 72 hour before hit dead zone?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Watch, the NHC will classify it tonight and by tomorrow morning it'll look like a POS.

[Aric Dunn]

Watch, the NHC will classify it tonight and by tomorrow morning it'll look like a POS.

lol that is possible. but comparing some other systems surrounded by sal like this., this one has quite a bit more moisture.

[Nimbus]

how long will be stay as td if form 48 to 72 hour before hit dead zone?

If NHC follows model support for dry air entrainment maybe zero for official purposes?

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1014654685339439104

[TheStormExpert]

Watch, the NHC will classify it tonight and by tomorrow morning it'll look like a POS.

Well it does have current support from a passing kelvin wave. The second it loses the support it will likely start poofing.

[cycloneye]

70%/70%

Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure and a
tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to become better organized. A tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean. By the weekend, however, upper-level winds
are expected to become less conducive for development when the
system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.