ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[LarryWx]

It appears this is/will be the strongest Beryl of the 7 so far since 60 mph is the strongest of the prior 6.

Based on current trends, it looks like it. Though the last Beryl in 2012 was maxed at 70 mph, almost reaching hurricane strength, but yes, you're right about this one.

Thanks for the correction. The new Unisys site had it and other Beryls like 1982 at 60 mph for some reason when they should have been at 60 knots.

[Alyono]

the intensification trend seems to have stopped for the time being

[Steve H.]

Yes, that was a great discussion from the nhc. Always remain vigilant.

[GCANE]

Latest GFS UL forecast for Sunday, July 8, 12:00Z
Red X marks current NHC Guidance for Beryl.

In the clear 355K PV and anticyclone just to the north.
If it can keep dry-air out of its mid levels, may have something to deal with as it approaches the islands.

[Nimbus]

The ULL that was forecast to be in the Bahamas appears not to be there anymore.
At this point, no longer a real shredder possibility.
GFS is now forecasting conducive 355K PV conditions well past the islands.
IMHO the forecast is quickly changing.
Next couple models runs will be very interesting to see where the track ends up.

Without adequate protection 20 knots could be the death of this thing, as well as its fast forward speed by day 5.

The HWRF high resolution model is showing a much larger moisture envelope as Beryl approaches -57 degrees west. The models themselves may have resolution limits for tiny cyclones where the pressure gradient changes so close to the center. NHC probably has model runs initialized with an actual hurricane which would result in the more southerly official projection for track. Somewhat interesting scenario due to the smaller size creating a sustainable moisture feed.

[wxman57]

As rapidly as it intensified, it appears to be weakening. Eye no longer there in final visible imagery.

[BYG Jacob]

Is it just me or did the convection just go poof?

[Aric Dunn]

very typical so far. to see it pulse during this phase. convection coming back quickly again. now that the circ's are stacked should see this ramp up .. assuming it has not sucked in the sal.

[TheStormExpert]

Beryl reminds me a lot of Danny from 2015.

[TheStormExpert]

A little historical context: If Beryl becomes a hurricane, it'll be the first Cape Verde hurricane in the month of July since Hurricane Bertha in 2008.

May not qualify as a CV storm since it formed west of 40W

I didn’t know there were qualifications for a Cape Verde storm.

[Siker]

Definitely sucked in some dry air earlier. Convection refiring over the core right now.

[Siker]

They ever fix those coupling issues with the HMON?

[wxman57]

Here's a 2hr comparison - 1830Z and 2030Z. Structure definitely deteriorated.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection building pretty good now. relative to its size. in all quads.

[Twisted-core]

Here's a 2hr comparison - 1830Z and 2030Z. Structure definitely deteriorated.

http://wxman57.com/images/Beryl.gif

Looks like the system is expanding.

[CyclonicFury]

The decrease in convection this afternoon is likely a result of passing over SSTs of only about 25C. Structure is still there though. Doubt it will be able to make hurricane status but it's possible if it can have a convective burst and reorganize. Likely was never a hurricane earlier - NHC made the right choice by going with 50 mph.

[Aric Dunn]

latest frame that just came in. showing the beginnings of what may be a large burst.. deep reds with a speck of white so far..

[NotSparta]

They ever fix those coupling issues with the HMON?

[img]https://i.imgur.com/H8d4MSq.png[/ig]

Imo, this is reasonable, especially if it gets a more favorable environment than expected

[Siker]

latest frame that just came in. showing the beginnings of what may be a large burst.. deep reds with a speck of white so far..

Yeah that is a nice little burst. I'd expect that band displaced to the west of the core to die out. We'll see if new banding develops to the southwest / northeast.

[Siker]

They ever fix those coupling issues with the HMON?

[img]https://i.imgur.com/H8d4MSq.png[/ig]

Imo, this is reasonable, especially if it gets a more favorable environment than expected

Oh yes I'd agree it's reasonable, but I'd like to know whether the HMON's forecast is being driven by some flawed mechanism (though even if it still isn't coupled a storm this small is unlikely to cool the waters much ahead of its core).