ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[GCANE]

UL conditions are in the clear to 60W

[shiny-pebble]

Also reminds me of Lee and Ophelia. The little 'canes that could

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk

[GCANE]

I just noticed this - a very interesting feature.
TPW showing another wave cresting over the top of Beryl.

[NotSparta]

Yep. Beryl is now the earliest MDR hurricane on record, beating out 2008's Bertha by 24 hours.

[Gustywind]

Hi my friends!
Waouw, the latest NHC forecast is very tricky. Curious wording from the NHC as dissipation is less prononced each weather forecast. The risk of a moderate TT close or on the islands near Dominica is not off discussion now.
Now, the NHC is speaking about Hurricane... but tiny.... What a mess! Let's hope that the Leewards will not have to deal with another cane scenario like the latest one of 2017 . The predictions of intensity are very versatile if not poor. Looks like tommorow will give us a better idea because of we're entering the weekend.

[cycloneye]

TXNT26 KNES 061208
TCSNTL

A. 02L (BERYL)

B. 06/1145Z

C. 10.7N

D. 45.9W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE EMBEDDED IN OW AND SURROUNDED BY
MG YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. THERE WERE NO EYE ADJUSTMENTS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[txwatcher91]

Beryl looks very healthy today. As it nears the islands the SST's will gradually increase and the shear will also begin to increase. With how poorly shear is forecast and intensity of tropical systems, those in the islands need to be prepared for Beryl as a tropical storm looks like a possibility and it could be stronger if the shear forecast changes some the next few days.

[GCANE]

Yep, just what I was afraid of.
GFS now curving this more north and under an anticyclone just before the islands.
Bahamas may be in play.

Latest GFS shows just south of PR with conducive 355K PV, good PW feed, and mid-level moisture entrainment from the ITCZ.

[Alyono]

Yep, just what I was afraid of.
GFS now curving this more north and under an anticyclone just before the islands.
Bahamas may be in play.

Latest GFS shows just south of PR with conducive 355K PV, good PW feed, and mid-level moisture entrainment from the ITCZ.

This is consistently tracking south of the guidance.

[NDG]

Have not been following Beryl because I’m still on vacation & poor internet connection. I will not be surprised if it reaches at least cat 2 if it stays in this low latitude now that it is reaching 27C waters, GFS now shows a little better UL conditions as it reaches the islands .

[NDG]

Yep. Beryl is now the earliest MDR hurricane on record, beating out 2008's Bertha by 24 hours.

Incredible! Lesson learned that with despite current “cool” SSTs there’s always the possibility if a strong African wave finds the sweet spot.

[txwatcher91]

Yep, just what I was afraid of.
GFS now curving this more north and under an anticyclone just before the islands.
Bahamas may be in play.

Latest GFS shows just south of PR with conducive 355K PV, good PW feed, and mid-level moisture entrainment from the ITCZ.

This is consistently tracking south of the guidance.

Alyono, what do you feel are the chances for this to maintain into the Caribbean (assuming it tracks south of forecast). Would it have better chances or run into a wall of shear? From what I can see on models it appears they reduce the shear as Beryl approaches but its still high enough to cause dissipation when it hits the mountains of PR. IF this were to track south of there and stay over open waters would that be a bit more concerning?

[tolakram]

I wonder if the SST measurements are wrong? Look at Beryl go, incredible little storm.

COD floater: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

SLIDER: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=739.5&y=983&z=2&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[txwatcher91]

Beryl is currently in roughly 26-27C water but as he approaches the island will enter 28-29C waters. Assuming the conditions are favorable still at that time it would not be a good scenario.

[NotSparta]

I wonder if the SST measurements are wrong? Look at Beryl go, incredible little storm.

COD floater: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

SLIDER: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=739.5&y=983&z=2&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

They're correct. The 200mb temperatures are cooler (-55C), which means a higher lapse rate and an ability to generate convection in cooler SSTs

[GCANE]

Yep, just what I was afraid of.
GFS now curving this more north and under an anticyclone just before the islands.
Bahamas may be in play.

Latest GFS shows just south of PR with conducive 355K PV, good PW feed, and mid-level moisture entrainment from the ITCZ.

This is consistently tracking south of the guidance.

Maybe its time for reading glasses, but it looks like the forecast line is moving somewhat north to me.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/B ... e_and_wind

[txwatcher91]

Also of note is the 26C isotherm. Beryl has been in areas where the warm water is very shallow but now is entering much deeper warm waters as well.



Also the waters in a very favorable environment would support a cat 4 (although highly unlikely).

[Alyono]

Yep, just what I was afraid of.
GFS now curving this more north and under an anticyclone just before the islands.
Bahamas may be in play.

Latest GFS shows just south of PR with conducive 355K PV, good PW feed, and mid-level moisture entrainment from the ITCZ.

This is consistently tracking south of the guidance.

Alyono, what do you feel are the chances for this to maintain into the Caribbean (assuming it tracks south of forecast). Would it have better chances or run into a wall of shear? From what I can see on models it appears they reduce the shear as Beryl approaches but its still high enough to cause dissipation when it hits the mountains of PR. IF this were to track south of there and stay over open waters would that be a bit more concerning?

It's going south of PR

I was well south of the guidance yesterday. I was still too far north

[GCANE]

I wonder if the SST measurements are wrong? Look at Beryl go, incredible little storm.

COD floater: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

SLIDER: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=739.5&y=983&z=2&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

They're correct. The 200mb temperatures are cooler (-55C), which means a higher lapse rate and an ability to generate convection in cooler SSTs

Agreed, this is the key.
This may be an indication of overall shift in the climate for upcoming waves.
Much like the 2005 season.
2004 was strong and 2005 even stronger.
Last year we saw some helacious cat 5s.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I wonder if the SST measurements are wrong? Look at Beryl go, incredible little storm.

COD floater: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

SLIDER: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=739.5&y=983&z=2&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

They're correct. The 200mb temperatures are cooler (-55C), which means a higher lapse rate and an ability to generate convection in cooler SSTs

Agreed, this is the key.
This may be an indication of overall shift in the climate for upcoming waves.
Much like the 2005 season.
2004 was strong and 2005 even stronger.
Last year we saw some helacious cat 5s.

2013 had a fairly active MDR in July and we saw naught by mid-season.