WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

This is still organizing but almost a T7.0. It'll be a Cat 5 in a short order.

[Yellow Evan]

[Kingarabian]

Stunning

[Twisted-core]

http://www.data.jma.go.jp/mscweb/data/h ... index.html

[aperson]

Why does the poleward side look so poor? Outflow problems?

[euro6208]

[Kingarabian]

Why does the poleward side look so poor? Outflow problems?

Dry air it looks like.

It's pretty evident that it's lingering just outside the eyewall. 4 hour old pass shows some degradation:



Should have another pass soon.

[Twisted-core]

yeah there is a wedge of dry-air to the west.

[mrbagyo]

[cycloneye]

JMA at 100 kts.:

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 8 July 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 8 July>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N19°00' (19.0°)
E138°55' (138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 390 km (210 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 8 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°10' (20.2°)
E136°35' (136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 9 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N21°20' (21.3°)
E133°50' (133.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 10 July>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N23°35' (23.6°)
E127°35' (127.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 11 July>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°05' (26.1°)
E120°30' (120.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)

[doomhaMwx]

00Z JTWC @ 130kts, back to STY status.

10W MARIA 180708 0000 19.1N 138.8E WPAC 130 924

[Kingarabian]

I'm not sure if its 130kts right now.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/zvhsYHb
HRWF forecast

[euro6208]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 07072308
SATCON: MSLP = 920 hPa MSW = 136 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 132.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 125 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 200 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -0.3 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 928 hPa 125 knots Scene: CDO Date: JUL080110
CIMSS AMSU: 917 hPa 139 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 07072308
ATMS: 920.4 hPa 133.2 knots Date: 07071633
SSMIS: 920.4 hPa 133.2 knots Date: 07071633
CIRA ATMS: 955 hPa 101 knots Date:

[1900hurricane]

JTWC might be giving a nod to SATCON. ATMS and AMSU are both running between 130-140 kt at the moment, driving the score way up.

[1900hurricane]

I believe it is the finger of subsidence that is holding the northwest side back as far as convective presentation is concerned.

[cycloneye]

JTWC once again up to SuperTyphoon.

WDPN32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 10W (MARIA) WARNING NR
22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 10W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 369 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT STY 10W HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE, BUT THE NORTHERN
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS THINNED. A 072341Z 89GHZ GPM
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE SURROUNDED BY A
COMPLETE EYEWALL, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE RAINBANDS SPIRALING IN. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 20NM
WIDE EYE FEATURE IN EIR IMAGERY LOOP AND THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
PRESENT IN THE 072314Z 37GHZ GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KTS) BASED ON THE PERSISTENT EYE AND
IMPROVED OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS JUST UNDER A 071853Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 132 KTS, CONTINUING AN INTENSIFICATION TREND IN
RECENT SATCON ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF STY 10W TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF A TUTT. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS STILL POOR DUE
TO CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM IS BEING ERODED BY THE PROXIMITY
OF THE TUTT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT STY 10W REMAINS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. STY
10W HAS CONTINUED A NORTHWESTWARD ACCELERATION TREND ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWEST, GRADUALLY
TURNING MORE WESTWARD, THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EAST-
WEST ORIENTED EXTENSION OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. STY 10W REMAINS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
BUT AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD, ITS ORIENTATION TO THE TUTT WILL
BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND IT WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12. ALONG THE TRACK BEFORE TAU 48, SSTS ARE WARM
AND VWS REMAINS LOW (10-15 KNOTS). HOWEVER, THE INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION WITH REGARD TO THE TUTT AND THE STR TO THE
NORTH WILL LIMIT OUTFLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE
WEAKENING TREND WILL BE SLOW AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. BETWEEN TAU 48-72, STY 10W WILL ENCOUNTER A
POCKET OF COLD WATER CLOSE TO THE RYUKU ISLANDS, WHICH COMBINED WITH
TERRAIN INTERACTION FROM THE NORTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN, WILL ACCELERATE
THE WEAKENING TREND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
WITH ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS HAVE CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE DURING
THE LAST MODEL RUN, WITH ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE LAGGING BEHIND
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED BETWEEN
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR BOTH TRACK SPEED
AND POSITION. DUE TO THE STRONG AGREEMENT OF AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, STY 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.
THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST HAS THE MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 72
ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF CHINA, APPROXIMATELY 300NM SOUTH OF
SHANGHAI. LANDFALL IS NOW PROJECTED TO OCCUR SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST DUE TO THE ACCELERATION IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL IN CHINA, STY 10W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER LAND. ONCE OVER
LAND, NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE, WITH ECMWF, GFS, AFUM, AND HWRF
TURNING STY 10W SHARPLY TO THE NORTH, AND NAVGEM, COTC, AND CTCX
MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
FAVORS THE NORTHWARD TURNING SCENARIO, BETWEEN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AT
TAU 96 AND 120, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

JTWC and SSD at 6.5.

TPPN11 PGTW 080256

A. SUPER TYPHOON 10W (MARIA)

B. 08/0230Z

C. 19.33N

D. 138.49E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T6.5/6.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. GEOMETRIC EYE. OW EYE SURROUNDED
BY W, +5
EYE ADJUSTMENT, +5 YIELDS DT OF 6.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/2341Z 18.98N 138.80E GPMI


DARLOW


TXPQ21 KNES 080308
TCSWNP

A. 10W (MARIA)

B. 08/0230Z

C. 19.4N

D. 138.4E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. OW
EYE IS SURROUNDED BY AND EMBEDDED IN W RESULTING IN A DT OF 6.5 AFTER
0.5 IS ADDED FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 6.0 BASED ON
A 24 HOUR DEVELOPMENT TREND. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[mrbagyo]

Here's the latest pass.

[Yellow Evan]

Not perfectly symmetrical but this is near Category 5 intensity and quite likely to remain steady state. Eye temp has been bouncing around a bit however.