ATL: CHRIS - Post-Tropical

[Kazmit]

Satellite appearance is much more impressive now that the center is under the convection. It's liftoff time.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane has been traversing the circulation of
Chris, and found that the wind field is gradually becoming better
defined, while the central pressure has dropped to 1006 mb. Maximum
winds so far from the SFMR are 40 kt, and this will be the intensity
assigned to Chris in this advisory. Another reconnaissance aircraft
will check the cyclone this afternoon. Recent high resolution
satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is becoming better
organized with the low-level center now embedded within the
convection. Chris is expected to be over a pool of warm water for
the next 2 days and embedded within an environment of low shear. On
this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Chris to become a hurricane
in about 36 hours in agreement with the dynamical guidance and the
HCCA model consensus. In about 4 days, Chris will be over 13
degree C water, and this should encourage extratropical transition.

Since the steering currents surrounding Chris collapsed, the cyclone
has barely moved since yesterday. These currents are foreast to
remain light, so little motion is anticipated during the next 2
days. A mid-level trough forecast to swing eastward across the
eastern United States will provide enough forcing to kick Chris
northeastward with increasing forward speed over the Atlantic beyond
72 hours. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the track guidance
envelope and follows closely the corrected consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 32.9N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 33.0N 74.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 32.5N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 32.5N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 32.5N 75.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 34.5N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 50.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Alyono]

looks like it is getting blasted by some westerly shear. Center appears as if it will soon be exposed

[OuterBanker]

looks like it is getting blasted by some westerly shear. Center appears as if it will soon be exposed

Yes, and the shear should keep it at bay until it lifts away.

We have had consistent winds here from 25 to 35 mph for over 36 hrs now and am now concerned about erosion.
I understand that our constant winds are more of a result of gradient between the front and Chris and winds should subside as the front exits even though Chris may strengthen.
What I'm not clear on is why did it stall instead of being swept out to sea by the front?

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

1. TROPICAL STORM CHRIS
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72          FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42
       A. 09/1800Z                   A. 09/2230Z
       B. AFXXX 0803A CHRIS          B. NOAA2 0903A CHRIS
       C. 09/1500Z                   C. 09/2030Z
       D. 32.5N 75.0W                D. 32.5N 75.0W
       E. 09/1730Z TO 09/2100Z       E. 09/2200Z TO 10/0300Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
       A. 10/0600Z
       B. AFXXX 1003A CYCLONE
       C. 10/0300Z
       D. 32.5N 75.0W
       E. 10/0530Z TO 10/0900Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Alyono]

pressure up quite a bit on this pass.

Cannot see this becoming a hurricane tomorrow

[cycloneye]

Here is the mission so far.

[cycloneye]

Up to 45 kts.

AL, 03, 2018070818, , BEST, 0, 327N, 749W, 45, 1008, TS

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
Tropical Storm #Chris getting a major convective boost this afternoon. Seeing a good deal of overshooting convection near the center of the storm. This could be the beginning of a rapid intensification process.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016029888636243969

[Alyono]

@MJVentrice
Tropical Storm #Chris getting a major convective boost this afternoon. Seeing a good deal of overshooting convection near the center of the storm. This could be the beginning of a rapid intensification process.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016029888636243969

Not going to get RI with its current low level structure. Broad and diffuse is what the plane has found on both passes

[Kingarabian]

@MJVentrice
Tropical Storm #Chris getting a major convective boost this afternoon. Seeing a good deal of overshooting convection near the center of the storm. This could be the beginning of a rapid intensification process.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016029888636243969[tweet]

Not going to get RI with its current low level structure. Broad and diffuse is what the plane has found on both passes

Yup. Saw this with Fabio in the EPAC. Cold tops don't mean much when the core is not organized.

[Hurricaneman]

@MJVentrice
Tropical Storm #Chris getting a major convective boost this afternoon. Seeing a good deal of overshooting convection near the center of the storm. This could be the beginning of a rapid intensification process.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016029888636243969

Not going to get RI with its current low level structure. Broad and diffuse is what the plane has found on both passes

Structure could have changed between the last pass and now, the main thing to watch for is if the convection dies which means no change in structure or convection retains or increases meaning Michael Ventrice would be right and it’s finally ready to take off so it’s basically wait and see what happens

[Hurricaneman]

What I’ve also noticed is that the shear is not as strong as earlier as it seems whatever center has tucked back under the convection but the center is still slightly tilted and on the SW edge of the convection

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
500 PM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018

Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern continues to become
better organized, and T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have increased
to 3.0 on the Dvorak scale. This was confirmed by data from an Air
Force reconnaissance plane which reported flight-level winds of 51
kt on the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt
in this advisory. Chris is expected to be over a pool of warm water
for the next 2 days and embedded within an environment of low shear.
On this basis, the NHC forecast continues to call for Chris to
become a hurricane in about 36 hours. This is in agreement with the
dynamical guidance and the HCCA model consensus which strengthen
Chris to a hurricane in a couple of days. In about 4 days, Chris
will be over 13 degree C Canadian waters, and this should encourage
extratropical transition.

The steering currents have collapsed, and the cyclone has barely
moved all day. These currents are foreast to remain light, so little
motion is anticipated during the next 2 days. A mid-level trough
forecast to swing eastward across the eastern United States will
provide enough forcing to kick Chris northeastward with increasing
forward speed over the Atlantic beyond 72 hours. The NHC forecast
continues to be in the middle of the track guidance envelope and
follows closely the corrected consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 32.7N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 32.5N 74.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 32.3N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 32.3N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 33.0N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 36.5N 69.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 43.5N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 50.0N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Yellow Evan]

@MJVentrice
Tropical Storm #Chris getting a major convective boost this afternoon. Seeing a good deal of overshooting convection near the center of the storm. This could be the beginning of a rapid intensification process.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016029888636243969[tweet]

Not going to get RI with its current low level structure. Broad and diffuse is what the plane has found on both passes

Yup. Saw this with Fabio in the EPAC. Cold tops don't mean much when the core is not organized.

Satellite imagery does suggest this storm looks much better now. I wouldn't be shocked if this became a potent hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Strong Hurricane on GFS.

[MGC]

Chris is looking pretty good on sat loop this afternoon. Looks to be in a favorable environment to continue to intensify. Betting it will be hurricane tomorrow....MGC

[Steve]

NAMs came in left and much stronger. 3 k nam... well... lets just say we wont have a cat 4 by Tuesday morning

Isn't that the same model that made Alberto a near major? It's never really a good idea to seriously look at NAM models anyway for TCs

That’s kind of wrong, and he’s a pro met. Those guys weight things, but it’s a model and it’s the model discussion.

[cycloneye]

@pppapin
#TC #Chris is just close enough to the #NC coast that we can still watch its convective structure evolve from the Morehead City #radar. Quick lvl2 reflectivity loop shows an improving structure this afternoon as convective bands wrap around the center.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1016090571188736001

[Steve]

Well, if Chris does end up getting close to the coast, we have the archives to know that the UKMET led the charge. We still have some time to see if other models start trending more left. I know early on, the GFS had something that was closer to coast runner.

? Prior models have shown a hit up by Nova Scotia. I haven’t looked at UK earlier but if it’s just starting to flow that way, it’s not the leader. Now if it’s way south into Maine or New Hampshire and hits, that would be a lead imho.