2018 EPAC Season
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Wow,PPM has crashed so it means EPAC wont be as busy as thought?
@webberweather
The PMM usually decays in the summer once the mid-latitude wintertime RW forcing goes away but the circumglobal subtropical ridging strengthened the trades here resulting in a massive PMM crash.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1015601281316970496
@webberweather
The PMM usually decays in the summer once the mid-latitude wintertime RW forcing goes away but the circumglobal subtropical ridging strengthened the trades here resulting in a massive PMM crash.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1015601281316970496
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote:Wow,PPM has crashed so it means EPAC wont be as busy as thought?
@webberweather
The PMM usually decays in the summer once the mid-latitude wintertime RW forcing goes away but the circumglobal subtropical ridging strengthened the trades here resulting in a massive PMM crash.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/XjYVKmZ.jpg[img]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1015601281316970496[tweet]
Maybe it'll allow for more ATL systems than previously thought, although that basin still has a big negative factor with the AMM being that cool.
In the EPAC it should still be a bullish season. We're in a developing El Nino, so waters (at least west of 100W) will be warm than average.
CFS also shows very favorable VP anomalies for much of the CPAC/EPAC basin soon:
2 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
PNM/PDO tends to fall apart this time of year not to mentioned part of the basin cooled of due to upwelling.
2 likes
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
GFS has very strong trades, would keep basin quiet
0 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Those are 5 days averages, so it's not that extreme. We'll always see pockets of unfavorable shear and favorable shear. Just need a disturbance to be in the right place at the right time. Don't forget that TCs are capable of "improving" local shear conditions.
Just need an igniter to spur development right now (Kelvin wave).There's a lot of low pressure areas lined up.
Just need an igniter to spur development right now (Kelvin wave).There's a lot of low pressure areas lined up.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
I will say, in this case, that the trades relaxing in the central Atlantic, would further hint to a 2017 pattern in both basins.
2 likes
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote:I will say, in this case, that the trades relaxing in the central Atlantic, would further hint to a 2017 pattern in both basins.
While the EPAC now has that filament of cooler SSTs like last spring, I have a feeling the EPAC still manages an above average season.
And while trades should relax, SSTAs in the ATL MDR shouldn't come close to 2017's -- there's still a decent -AMM and it'll take a lot of work to even get to a marginal +AMM, let alone 2017 levels.
Also, unlike 2017, it looks like ENSO will move into El Niño this yr rather than going back to La Niña, especially since its base state has been erased.
Just saying my $0.02, I could be wrong.
1 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:Those are 5 days averages, so it's not that extreme. We'll always see pockets of unfavorable shear and favorable shear. Just need a disturbance to be in the right place at the right time. Don't forget that TCs are capable of "improving" local shear conditions.
Just need an igniter to spur development right now (Kelvin wave).There's a lot of low pressure areas lined up.
True, true (though a 5 day average indicates it could be even more extreme at points, and also less). TCs can be unpredictable, so they can pop up unexpectedly.
0 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Not sure how reliable it is or whether it'll verify, but the CFSv2 weekly keeps trades fast:
0 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
EPS has been trying to hint at stuff after day 10 but you know the drill given the phantom storms we've seen the last season and a half.
4 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote:EPS has been trying to hint at stuff after day 10 but you know the drill given the phantom storms we've seen the last season and a half.
I remember when the EPS had something, it was serious. Now it's just as bad the GFS. So many ghost storms in the past 2 weeks on it...
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Kingarabian,when will we know when the models will be right about something developing in this basin as you said about the phantoms they have been showing?.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian,when will we know when the models will be right about something developing in this basin as you said about the phantoms they have been showing?.
In theory, by the book meteorology says when there's more consistency but as of right now, we will know something is developing when it actually happens.
2 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
I don't think this month we'll see the long streak of July storms we've been accustomed to for the last three years because it's already July 8 and the models seem to at least be correctly forecasting the inactive periods. As for whether or not it'll happen in August, I guess only time will tell.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Well speaking of development, GFS for the 2nd run in a row shows a disturbance emerging from a vigorous ITCZ/MT consolidating and developing to become TS Gilma near 120-130W:
It makes sense since there's about to be a surge of favorable VP anomalies entering the CPAC/EPAC. As a result, the operational models should begin to show more signs of TC genesis (as soon as they get a better handle).
It makes sense since there's about to be a surge of favorable VP anomalies entering the CPAC/EPAC. As a result, the operational models should begin to show more signs of TC genesis (as soon as they get a better handle).
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Very likely that we'll see an uptick in TC development in the CPAC/EPAC soon:
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016031493645393921
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016031493645393921
2 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
A few EPS members and NASA show this now. Some EPS members also seemingly showing stuff behind it.
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
June SST's only the 7th highest on record. Second lowest after 2017 since 2014. Also behind 1997 and a few earlier seasons. If it continues, that'd signify a pattern flip from the ultrafavorable EPAC expected some earlier, although more so from others.
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Latest 00z OP. Euro run and EPS run look very bullish for development starting around the 15th.
PC - Ryan Maue - http://www.weathermodels.com
PC - Ryan Maue - http://www.weathermodels.com
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
06z GFS now on board with development. Has TS Gilma in 72 hours. Probably see the NHC take the yellow marker out soon.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: 7cardinal, Emmett_Brown, Hurricaneman, South Texas Storms, Tireman4, Wampadawg and 101 guests