ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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Re: ENSO Updates
0.4c this week
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 7/9/18: Niño 3.4 remains at +0.4C
CPC weekly update of 7/9/18 has Niño 3.4 remaining at +0.4C.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates
LarryWx wrote:NDG wrote:Nino 4 & Nino 3.4 slightly cooled down last week while Nino 3 & Nino 1+2 warmed up.
I agree with all of this except didn’t Niño 3.4 remain at +0.4?
Ooops, I was looking at the graphics not the actual written update.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 7/9/18: Niño 3.4 remains at +0.4C
It's been a seesaw for sure. When Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 warm, Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 lag or cool. Now with Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 warming, Nino 3.4 and Nino 4 are cooling.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Dr. Ventrice tweeted a lot of useful information today. Visit his page to view them all.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016714419827593216
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016458184230359041
From the looks of it, he's all in on El Nino this year.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016714419827593216
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1016458184230359041
From the looks of it, he's all in on El Nino this year.
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: ENSO Updates
After he predicted a quiet September in the Atlantic last year right before all h*'ll broke loose
I have kinda doubted his predictions.
That is likely unfair as he seems like a respected hurricane expert.
I have kinda doubted his predictions.
That is likely unfair as he seems like a respected hurricane expert.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
@BenNollWeather
SSTs have continued to cool to the northwest of Australia and across Indonesia in recent weeks.
This cool anomaly over the Maritime Continent will work to suppress convection & supports the development an #ElNiño-like atmospheric pattern in the tropical Pacific.
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1016991027800838144
SSTs have continued to cool to the northwest of Australia and across Indonesia in recent weeks.
This cool anomaly over the Maritime Continent will work to suppress convection & supports the development an #ElNiño-like atmospheric pattern in the tropical Pacific.
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1016991027800838144
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: ENSO Updates
CPC has released their July ENSO update. No El Niño yet, but they give a 70% chance of an El Niño developing this winter.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: 65% of El Niño by Fall / 70% by Winter
CPC Jyly update still has El Niño Watch but goes up to 65% by Fall and 70% by Winter.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -cpc_plume
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -cpc_plume
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: 65% of El Niño by Fall / 70% by Winter
As always,they add some discussion to what the update said in the ENSO Blog
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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: 65% of El Niño by Fall / 70% by Winter
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: 65% of El Niño by Fall / 70% by Winter
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1017399964916506624
Goodness gracious look at those 850mb westerly wind anomalies over the WPAC!
Also a strong on going trade burst signal over the eastern portion of the EPAC. But as soon as those westerly anomalies are likely to shift soon from the WPAC to east of the dateline (similar to what we saw in June).
Goodness gracious look at those 850mb westerly wind anomalies over the WPAC!
Also a strong on going trade burst signal over the eastern portion of the EPAC. But as soon as those westerly anomalies are likely to shift soon from the WPAC to east of the dateline (similar to what we saw in June).
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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: 65% of El Niño by Fall / 70% by Winter
Kingarabian wrote:[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1017399964916506624[tweet]
Goodness gracious look at those 850mb westerly wind anomalies over the WPAC!
Also a strong on going trade burst signal over the eastern portion of the EPAC. But as soon as those westerly anomalies are likely to shift soon from the WPAC to east of the dateline (similar to what we saw in June).
There's a much larger effect on ENSO when they're centered over the equator. It doesn't help as much when the signal is pushed to north or south of the equator
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
Re: ENSO: CPC July update: 65% of El Niño by Fall / 70% by Winter
NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1017399964916506624[tweet]
Goodness gracious look at those 850mb westerly wind anomalies over the WPAC!
Also a strong on going trade burst signal over the eastern portion of the EPAC. But as soon as those westerly anomalies are likely to shift soon from the WPAC to east of the dateline (similar to what we saw in June).
There's a much larger effect on ENSO when they're centered over the equator. It doesn't help as much when the signal is pushed to north or south of the equator
While that definitely sounds intuitive, I'd like to see data or a study that backs it up.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: 65% of El Niño by Fall / 70% by Winter
NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1017399964916506624[tweet]
Goodness gracious look at those 850mb westerly wind anomalies over the WPAC!
Also a strong on going trade burst signal over the eastern portion of the EPAC. But as soon as those westerly anomalies are likely to shift soon from the WPAC to east of the dateline (similar to what we saw in June).
There's a much larger effect on ENSO when they're centered over the equator. It doesn't help as much when the signal is pushed to north or south of the equator
Certainly true, didn't realize that it was a different latitude. Ventrice usually posts those Hovmollers showing the winds @ the equator.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: 65% of El Niño by Fall / 70% by Winter
Most recent frame shows the warm pool weakening IMO.
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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: 65% of El Niño by Fall / 70% by Winter
Per the buoys, ENSO regions especially Nino 4 have cooled down since the beginning of the month due to stronger trade winds.
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- NotSparta
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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: 65% of El Niño by Fall / 70% by Winter
NDG wrote:Per the buoys, ENSO regions especially Nino 4 have cooled down since the beginning of the month due to stronger trade winds.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/BvRpiJX.gif[img]
The phase 5 MJO appears to be slowing the arrival of El Niño a bit
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
Re: ENSO: CPC July update: 65% of El Niño by Fall / 70% by Winter
NotSparta wrote:NDG wrote:Per the buoys, ENSO regions especially Nino 4 have cooled down since the beginning of the month due to stronger trade winds.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/BvRpiJX.gif[img]
The phase 5 MJO appears to be slowing the arrival of El Niño a bit
Agree and all of the sudden 2009 is not a good analog year to use for this year so far.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: 65% of El Niño by Fall / 70% by Winter
NotSparta wrote:NDG wrote:Per the buoys, ENSO regions especially Nino 4 have cooled down since the beginning of the month due to stronger trade winds.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/BvRpiJX.gif[img]
The phase 5 MJO appears to be slowing the arrival of El Niño a bit
If I recall correctly, it literally shut down any El Nino chance last season.
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