Eric Webb wrote:NotSparta wrote:Eric Webb wrote:Take it for what it's worth (as aforementioned not so sure if the Pacific standing wave behavior is legit), but for giggles, the EPS shows stronger than normal easterly trade winds on the dateline thru the end of August. If this verifies even to some extent, this impending El Nino as well as the downwelling KWs in the EP, will take a pretty huge beating. The next few-several weeks are pretty crucial imo.
Sorry, the image is broken for me. Is it that the Hovmöller graphic?
Ah okay I see, hopefully I just fixed the problem! Yeah it is a hovmoller graphic, I have several others saved up from other EPS forecasts and I'll have to say, the EPS hasn't generally done too bad w/ 850 near-equatorial wind anomalies even several weeks in advance.
Yeah, it's good now, thanks! I remember some hints of this type of persistent anomaly in the one you posted around a week ago, appears to have trended stronger. The ocean sure has some pretty good dynamics for an El Niño but seems to me the atmosphere is struggling to couple. Will be interesting to see what ultimately happens.