hurricanes1234 wrote::uarrow: We're probably going to end this month at or near an ACE deficit, which will offset the surplus we saw in June.
12z ECMWF still has 2 systems in 10 days.
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hurricanes1234 wrote::uarrow: We're probably going to end this month at or near an ACE deficit, which will offset the surplus we saw in June.
Yellow Evan wrote:099
ABPZ20 KNHC 170502
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 16 2018
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a
tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has changed
little since yesterday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become
unfavorable for development in one or two days while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
At least this has good 20/20 vision.
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: 3 of the 4 prospective systems the ECMWF it keeps weak. 90E is the first, the 0/30 is the second, and there's two more behind.
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