WPAC: WUKONG - Post-Tropical

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TPPN11 PGTW 251504

A. TROPICAL STORM 14W (WUKONG)

B. 25/1430Z

C. 36.00N

D. 157.08E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY OW
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.0. MET 4.0. PT
3.5. DBO PT. EYE DIAMETER 23NM.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/1031Z 34.97N 157.27E MMHS
25/1111Z 34.98N 157.40E MMHS


DAVIS

[Yellow Evan]

Think this system has seen its best days.

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At peak...

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WDPN34 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (WUKONG) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 14W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST OF
MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 TO T4.0
(45 TO 65 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE (15-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS UNFAVORABLE AT 20-21C. TS
14W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 14W WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 24. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECASTED TO
BEGIN BY TAU 12 AND COMPLETE BY TAU 36 AS TS 14W MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER AND INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

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14W WUKONG 180726 1200 41.5N 152.6E WPAC 35 997

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