WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

CDO continues to mature with repetitive convection bursts over the center:



Won't be long before an inner core starts to form at this rate.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at the scattometer pass a while back, center looks a bit further west than I expected. Likely near 117W now. Outflow channels not really impressive, however.

[storminabox]

CDO continues to mature with repetitive convection bursts over the center:



Won't be long before an inner core starts to form at this rate.

Looks better than Gilma ever did

[Yellow Evan]

Most EPS members bring this near or a bit south of Hawaii at day 10-11, with some signs of a ridge re-building by day 12 or so.

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
Could be a long-lived cyclone that moves into the central Pacific (no immediate threat to land). Not atypical for August of busy eastern and central Pacific seasons.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1024398555233091585

[Yellow Evan]

Becoming more stacked. This is a TS and could outdo expectations in the short term at this rate.

[Kingarabian]

Track can of course change, but something to keep an eye out on.

12z EPS members split between a south/north track, 12z EPS control very close call with the big island.



Control:


PC - Ryan Maue -http://www.Weathermodels.com

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

GFS is awake.

[Kingarabian]

GFS shows on its 200mb wind charts, the Hawaiian shear moving north of the islands, thus allowing upper level conditions to considerably improve in front of future Hector:

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS basically recurves this.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting MW passes. 4 hour old GMI pass (right) looks better than the most recent SSMIS pass.

[cycloneye]

SAB again at 2.5 but with those MW images I would go 3.0.

TXPZ21 KNES 010021
TCSENP

A. 10E (NONAME)

B. 01/0000Z

C. 13.2N

D. 117.7W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS OVER .4 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

31/2220Z 13.1N 117.0W SSMI


...KIBLER

[cycloneye]

Hello Hector!

EP, 10, 2018080100, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1176W, 35, 1006, TS

[Kingarabian]

Sun going down over Hector:

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
Pacific Hurricane season next name is Hector -- ensembles suggest it becomes a strong hurricane in short order as it heads WNW over the next 10-days toward Hawaii. Too soon to figure a direct threat besides big waves/surf -- which is welcome.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1024454716804288514

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TEN EP102018 08/01/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 50 53 62 70 79 78 80 82 79 75
V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 50 53 62 70 79 78 80 82 79 75
V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 48 53 60 68 73 78 82 78 72
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 14 13 16 11 6 6 7 8 16 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 0 -3 -5 -4 -3 -2 0 1 2
SHEAR DIR 54 56 53 55 58 56 67 36 13 334 286 298 304
SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.5 27.2 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 145 144 144 139 136 133 135 139 136 136 140
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7
700-500 MB RH 66 67 66 65 64 61 57 57 59 60 59 58 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 13 14 16 20 18 20 23 24 24
850 MB ENV VOR -24 -24 -24 -16 -10 -1 6 17 18 26 36 40 32
200 MB DIV 6 19 48 46 48 48 65 35 39 9 -15 -8 15
700-850 TADV -6 -7 -7 -5 -2 -1 -3 -5 -8 -5 -4 -3 -1
LAND (KM) 1380 1414 1455 1514 1564 1701 1856 2037 2203 2353 2324 2109 1906
LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.0 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.6
LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.6 119.6 120.6 121.6 123.8 125.9 128.0 129.9 131.9 133.8 135.9 138.0
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 11 11 19 30 19 8 8 6 11 10

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 11. 10. 13. 18. 19. 18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 18. 27. 35. 44. 43. 45. 47. 44. 40.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.8 117.6

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 TEN 08/01/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 5.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.43 3.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 2.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.71 -3.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 21.8% 19.6% 13.1% 8.7% 16.2% 18.1% 10.6%
Logistic: 9.0% 24.1% 9.4% 5.8% 2.7% 4.4% 7.1% 9.2%
Bayesian: 0.3% 4.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Consensus: 6.9% 16.8% 9.8% 6.4% 3.8% 7.0% 8.5% 6.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 TEN 08/01/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 31 2018

Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued
to become better organized since the previous advisory with an
increase in banding over the western and southern portions of the
circulation. As a result, satellite intensity estimates have
increased to T2.5 on the Dvorak scale, so the initial wind speed has
been increased to 35 kt. Hector becomes the eighth named storm of
the 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

Hector is forecast to traverse warm SSTs and remain within a
favorable upper-level wind pattern during the next day or so which
should result in steady strengthening. Some moderate northeasterly
shear could temper the rate of intensification in 36-48 h, but the
intensity guidance is generally more aggressive this cycle. The
NHC intensity forecast calls for a faster rate of strengthening
early in the forecast period, and brings Hector to hurricane status
in a couple of days, which is in line with most of the intensity
guidance. The updated official forecast also indicates a slightly
higher peak intensity, but it is not as high as the dynamical model
guidance and the ICON intensity consensus model in deference to the
previous NHC advisory.

Recent satellite fixes indicate that Hector is moving west-
northwestward or 285/12 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the
north of the tropical storm is expected to keep the system on a
generally west-northwestward to westward motion throughout the
forecast period. The track guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario, but there are some differences in the predicted forward
speed of the cyclone. The ECMWF depicts a faster westward motion
while the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and HWRF show a somewhat slower
speed. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous official forecast, but is slower than most of the
consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 13.0N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 13.4N 119.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 13.8N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 13.9N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 13.9N 126.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 13.8N 130.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 13.7N 134.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 13.7N 138.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Ntxw]

Long tracker potential? Hoping for a good one finally, and hoping it stays away from Hawaii.

[Alyono]

GFS looks to have an Oahu landfall from the EAST

[Kazmit]

After seeing the 00z GFS, I hope this dies as quick as possible.