WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

I don't know what Environment Canada did to the Canadian model, but it kills off Hector immediately. It seems to have had somewhat of a low bias recently

[Alyono]

TROPICAL STORM 10E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 117.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.08.2018 0 13.0N 117.7W 1006 27
1200UTC 01.08.2018 12 13.9N 119.6W 1004 33
0000UTC 02.08.2018 24 14.8N 121.9W 1001 39
1200UTC 02.08.2018 36 15.6N 124.0W 1002 36
0000UTC 03.08.2018 48 16.1N 126.1W 1003 31
1200UTC 03.08.2018 60 16.1N 128.4W 1005 28
0000UTC 04.08.2018 72 16.1N 131.0W 1006 25
1200UTC 04.08.2018 84 16.0N 133.9W 1007 27
0000UTC 05.08.2018 96 15.7N 137.1W 1008 24
1200UTC 05.08.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING


UKMET also does next to nothing with this

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS. This just got serious.

[Alyono]

that 989mb is also after it crossed a 10,000 ft mountain on Maui. The 978mb just before landfall is more representative

[Yellow Evan]

01/0600 UTC 13.0N 118.5W T2.5/2.5 HECTOR -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HECTOR EP102018 08/01/18 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 46 51 59 66 71 76 78 79 76 72
V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 46 51 59 66 71 76 78 79 76 72
V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 45 50 57 65 73 78 78 74 69
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 17 11 7 6 7 8 14 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -2 -3 -5 -6 -3 -3 0 0 2 -1
SHEAR DIR 54 54 56 63 54 61 59 11 4 326 308 309 326
SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.8 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.5 26.7
POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 143 139 136 134 132 137 135 135 139 130
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7
700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 63 59 56 54 54 57 59 57 55 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 14 15 16 18 19 21 23 25 25 24
850 MB ENV VOR -22 -21 -13 -11 -2 0 19 11 23 32 41 32 34
200 MB DIV 24 44 53 55 53 58 57 55 34 0 1 -14 1
700-850 TADV -8 -8 -6 -3 -4 -4 -5 -8 -9 -7 -6 -5 -3
LAND (KM) 1422 1477 1523 1580 1641 1800 1971 2134 2276 2392 2177 1974 1779
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.9 14.0
LONG(DEG W) 118.9 120.0 121.1 122.1 123.1 125.2 127.3 129.3 131.2 133.1 135.2 137.2 139.1
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 11 13 28 25 8 7 6 8 12 9

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 19. 18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 16. 24. 31. 36. 41. 43. 44. 41. 37.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 118.9

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/01/18 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 4.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.34 2.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 2.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 3.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.69 -3.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 17.7% 17.3% 11.6% 7.2% 14.6% 16.6% 10.0%
Logistic: 3.1% 9.9% 3.8% 2.0% 1.4% 0.8% 1.4% 4.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.7% 9.6% 7.1% 4.5% 2.9% 5.1% 6.0% 4.7%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/01/18 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Kingarabian]

that 989mb is also after it crossed a 10,000 ft mountain on Maui. The 978mb just before landfall is more representative

00z Euro is south of the islands, but a close call since it basically rounds out the islands. GEFS is south of the islands. It's still 240 hours out, so we're going to see a lot of windshield wiping.

One thing that the Euro and GFS agree on is that Hector will be a strong hurricane in the CPAC.

[Kingarabian]

Hector is still struggling with dry air intrusion and some mid level shear. But it's looking better as it continues to move west:

[Alyono]

Ensembles favor a track safely south of the islands

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018

Hector is still somewhat disorganized, with a majority of its deep
convection displaced to the south and west of its surface center. In
fact, a recent AMSU pass around 0515 UTC indicated that the center
of Hector was nearly exposed on the northeast side of a small curved
band. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have not changed
since the last advisory and the ASCAT instruments missed the cyclone
once again, so the initial intensity has been held at 35 kt.

Easterly shear of around 10 kt, as analyzed in SHIPS diagnostics,
appears to be the primary factor preventing Hector from becoming
better organized. The latest GFS and ECMWF runs at 00Z suggest that
the shear will increase slightly during the next 24-36 hours before
decreasing substantially during the second half of the forecast
period. Despite the shear, all of the intensity guidance forecasts
that Hector will intensify in an otherwise favorable environment,
and the intensity guidance is generally higher than it was
previously. The dynamical hurricane models, HWRF, HMON, and
COAMPS-TC all bring Hector to near major hurricane strength, while
SHIPS and LGEM are a little lower. Given that Hector is still fairly
disorganized, the intensity forecast for the first 24 hours is
somewhat conservative, and favors the statistical-dynamical models.
Beyond that time, the NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than
it was previously, but is still just below the intensity consensus.

The estimated initial motion of the tropical storm is 285/13 kt.
Little change has been made to the track forecast, which has been
adjusted only slightly to the north through most of the forecast
period. The track guidance is in very good agreement on the track of
Hector, and the main source of uncertainty is the speed at which an
extensive mid-level ridge to the north will steer the cyclone
westward. Since I see no obvious reason to favor any one of the
typically-reliable global models, the NHC forecast is now very close
to the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 13.4N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 13.9N 121.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 14.2N 123.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 14.4N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 14.4N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 14.3N 132.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 14.0N 136.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 14.0N 140.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Alyono]

6Z GFS goes for the full horror show

[Ntxw]

Yeah the 6z gfs was rather not favorable.

Still a long way to go, Hector may be around for the next week at least to watch if it can survive the initial first few days.

[cycloneye]

SAB up to 3.0.

01/1200 UTC 13.7N 119.8W T3.0/3.0 HECTOR -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track up to 40 kts.

EP, 10, 2018080112, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1199W, 40, 1004, TS

[USTropics]

06z GFS ensembles are concentrated to the south, closer to the ECMWF operational:



00z ECMWF operational:



Last 3 runs, GFS operational has trended south as well:



Super long range and is most certainly subject to change, so pay close attention if you have interests in Hawaii.

[NDG]

Hard for me to believe the models in their medium to long range forecasting the windshear to vanish over the Hawaiian Islands, which has been permanent over this area so far. I believe it when I see it. IMO.

[cycloneye]

Now forecast to peak at 90 kts.

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018

Satellite images indicate that Hector is on a strengthening trend,
with a large area of convection near and west of the apparent
center. The latest microwave data, a 1159Z F-16 pass, also show the
beginnings of an inner core in the 91-Ghz channels. The system has
some tilt, however, with suggestions from the microwave pass that
the low- and mid-level centers are not well aligned. The latest
intensity estimates from TAFB/SAB are 45 kt, but I've elected to
only raise the wind speed to 40 kt due to uncertainty in the initial
position and the microwave tilt.

Hector is forecast to remain over warm water, with light-to-
moderate shear and somewhat dry mid-level moisture for the
next several days. In 12 to 24 hours, northeasterly shear is
forecast to increase near Hector, which should slow the
intensification rate. Thus the official forecast shows
strengthening at less than a climatological rate for the next
few days. At long range, some of model guidance suggest the
upper-level environment could become very favorable, with the
HWRF/HMON now showing Hector at category 4 strength in the central
Pacific Ocean. I would prefer to see more consistency from these
models before showing such a large increase, but the new forecast is
raised from the previous one and is higher than the model consensus.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. Hector should
turn to the west tomorrow and even move a little south-of-west for
the next few days thereafter as the subtropical ridge builds to the
north and west of the cyclone. The largest uncertainty is the
location of Hector in a few days as an inverted upper-level trough
forms to the north or northeast of the cyclone. For now there is
enough separation of Hector and this trough to prevent the cyclone
from gaining much latitude. While the model guidance doesn't show
a lot of spread for now, and the new forecast is close to the
previous one, it is worth keeping an eye on the trough to make sure
it stays separate from Hector at long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 13.8N 120.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 14.2N 122.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 14.6N 126.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 14.5N 128.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 14.4N 133.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 13.9N 138.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 13.7N 142.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Ntxw]

Would Hilda or Ignacio '15 be a good comparison? If so I don't see why this won't become the next major

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Would Hilda or Ignacio '15 be a good comparison? If so I don't see why this won't become the next major

Jimena would be a better analog.

Different track, but it would hold major hurricane strength for a long, long time

[Yellow Evan]

Hard for me to believe the models in their medium to long range forecasting the windshear to vanish over the Hawaiian Islands, which has been permanent over this area so far. I believe it when I see it. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/IfWEENA.gif

Given that the shear in the basin has been gradually subsiding basin wide and the consistency of showing a weakening of the shear in the global models, it’s likely the shear relaxes some. Will it be as much as modeled? Now that’s an open question.