WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

[img]http://i64.tinypic.com/nyh91v.jpg[img]

Wow, I'd go straight to MH here.

[storminabox]

[img]http://i64.tinypic.com/nyh91v.jpg[img]

Wow, I'd go straight to MH here.

I’m excited to see what the NHC does for this advisory.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah, I'd probably go with 105 kt. I agree I am very skeptical of it making it all the way to Asia, that is beyond fantasyland. Maybe getting past 180, yes, but that would be historic for an EPAC storm to make it all the way to Asia.

[cycloneye]

P5

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018

Satellite images indicate that Hector is re-strengthening. The eye
has cleared out again on visible imagery, with an increase in
deep convection in the eyewall. Perhaps this shouldn't be a
surprise because of Hector's small size, since these systems
are known to fluctuate up and down rapidly. The initial intensity
is set to 90 kt, between the 75 kt SATCON from CIMSS and a 102 kt
estimate from SAB. The large-scale environment would seem to favor
some intensification of Hector during the next couple of days, with
SSTS of 27-27.5C, light shear, and moderate levels of mid-level
moisture forecast. The new NHC forecast favors the dynamical models
over the more statistical-based guidance and shows steady
strengthening. This should be considered a low-confidence forecast
due to the divergent guidance and the small size of Hector. At the
end of the forecast, some weakening is shown due to increasing
dryness in the mid-levels and a potential increase in shear.

The initial motion remains 270/10 kt. There has been no change to
the synoptic steering pattern. A large subtropical ridge should
push the hurricane westward for the next couple of days. Due to a
weakness in the ridge in 2 or 3 days, Hector is forecast to gain
some latitude in the long range. Model guidance has been
oscillating northward and southward with the forecast in the Central
Pacific, with the latest guidance a little faster and farther south.
The NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, but not as far south
as the new model consensus.

There is the potential for Hector to bring some impacts to portions
of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of next week, but it is too
soon to specify the magnitude of the impacts or where they could
occur. This is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional
information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii,
please products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in
Honolulu.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 14.1N 129.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 14.1N 131.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 14.1N 133.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 14.1N 135.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 14.2N 137.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 15.2N 142.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 16.2N 148.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[CrazyC83]

The only EPAC storms that I know of that made it all the way to the WPAC are John (1994), Dora (1999) and Genevieve (2014). I don't think any of them made it much past 170E longitude.

To form at 120W and make it all the way to Japan (near 140E) would be like an Atlantic hurricane forming at the Greenwich meridian and making it all the way to 100W (i.e. past the western Gulf Coast). There is very little tropical water at the Greenwich meridian and it would be setting records for near-tropical formation anyway, as it would have to form at a latitude below 5N.

[1900hurricane]

Georgette '86 is another triple basin system, but yeah, they're very rare.

[Kingarabian]

Outflow looks much improved compared to yesterday, and thus it has a much better chance to bomb out compared to yesterday.



Such a small hurricane, but a rather LARGE feeder band.

[1900hurricane]

You know the system is really small when microwave images have issues properly resolving the core.

[1900hurricane]

That feeder band is actually the western end of the monsoon trough (double line). To the west of it is the more traditional intertropical convergence zone.

[Kingarabian]

This MT is VERY rigorous. Thank you for the visuals and thorough explanations today.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS initialized 12mb lower and thus it felt the first trough a lot more. It's much more north than the 12z GFS run and is slower. Misses the big island to the south, but a very close call.

[1900hurricane]

The 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF really begin to diverge with respect to steering pattern beyond tau 120.

[Kingarabian]

Dvorak presentation improving frame by frame... No doubt this is a major hurricane right now. Too bad ADT is useless with small storms, and MW imagery will not capture the core well unless it's really defined.

[Yellow Evan]

T5.5. CDO not smooth so it might be a little lower than Dvorak says.

[Ntxw]

This to me should be a major



eye is warming

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
Been a super busy week at work forecasting #Hector - looking impressive tonight! Sure has been a tough one to forecast... GIF via @Weathernerds

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1025509954323705856

[Yellow Evan]

T6.0.

[1900hurricane]

Eyewall replacement may soon be coming.

[Kingarabian]

T6.0 on GOES 16

[Kingarabian]

Eyewall replacement may soon be coming.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/rsXMXZK.jpg[/ig]

Pretty much proof that it was a major hurricane last advisory.