WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[storminabox]

If Hector follows the NHC forecast thru the next 5 days it will have accrued about 30 ACE units by that time, what happens after this is up for debate but w/ SSTs climbing near/above 29C in its potential path there's certainly some potential for Hector to become even more intense and pile on more ACE more quickly.

Yeah Hector has a ton of potential. I’m excited to see what it does.

[NDG]

It will be for the record books if it reaches eastern Asia

[Eric Webb]

If Hector follows the NHC forecast thru the next 5 days it will have accrued about 30 ACE units by that time, what happens after this is up for debate but w/ SSTs climbing near/above 29C in its potential path there's certainly some potential for Hector to become even more intense and pile on more ACE more quickly.

Yeah Hector has a ton of potential. I’m excited to see what it does.

Agreed, I usually don’t care much for Pacific storms except if they’re highly anomalous, affecting Hawaii, or their remnants could directly enter the US, Hector is definitely worth following if you’re a hurricane weenie.

[Alyono]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 132.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2018 0 14.1N 132.1W 956 74
0000UTC 05.08.2018 12 14.2N 133.9W 957 78
1200UTC 05.08.2018 24 14.5N 136.1W 959 75
0000UTC 06.08.2018 36 15.0N 138.5W 958 72
1200UTC 06.08.2018 48 15.5N 141.6W 963 69
0000UTC 07.08.2018 60 16.1N 144.9W 967 66
1200UTC 07.08.2018 72 16.4N 148.1W 973 64
0000UTC 08.08.2018 84 16.6N 151.2W 975 60
1200UTC 08.08.2018 96 16.7N 154.1W 975 61
0000UTC 09.08.2018 108 17.0N 156.9W 970 66
1200UTC 09.08.2018 120 17.5N 159.8W 976 67
0000UTC 10.08.2018 132 17.8N 162.9W 980 60
1200UTC 10.08.2018 144 17.7N 165.7W 983 54

starting to see agreement on a track within ~100 miles of South Point. Very small size should spare Hawaii barring any northward adjustments

[Alyono]

CMC makes no physical sense. It has landfall on the Big Island as a depression... Initialization was also barely that of a TS

[Eric Webb]

Hector appears to be trying to become an annular hurricane, you can see the storm shedding its outer rainbands as we speak.

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 041430
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 04 AUGUST 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z AUGUST 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-072

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE HECTOR
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. 06/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0110E HECTOR
C. 05/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
1. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES FOR HURRICANE HECTOR
AT 06/1730Z NEAR 15.5N 143.2W.
2. A NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
AROUND HURRICANE HECTOR FOR 07/0000Z,
DEPARTING PHNL AT 06/1730Z.

[cycloneye]

For the record as 8 AM PDT advisory discussion was not posted.

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018

There have been some subtle changes in Hector during the past
several hours with satellite imagery indicating a slight disruption
of the eyewall convective pattern. This appears to be due to a
slowly evolving eyewall cycle, which can only be readily seen by
high-resolution microwave data such as AMSR2, due to Hector's
small size. Intensity estimates remain virtually the same, so the
wind speed is held at 105 kt.

Due the eyewall cycle, future intensity changes are harder to
predict. Since Hector is forecast to remain in a favorable
large-scale environment, albeit with marginal SSTs, little overall
change in strength is indicated during the next couple of days.
Hector's small size could also make it prone to short-term
fluctuations in intensity, up or down, like the one observed
yesterday. In about 3 days, Hector is forecast to move over somewhat
cooler SSTs and into a drier environment, so gradual weakening is
shown. Little change was made to the previous NHC wind speed
prediction, near or just above the model consensus.

Hector is locked into a westward motion of 270/10 kt. A large
subtropical ridge to the north should steer the hurricane generally
westward throughout the forecast period, with Hector gradually
gaining some latitude on Sunday and beyond due to a weakness in the
ridge. Overall the model guidance is in much better agreement than
yesterday, and only cosmetic changes were made to previous track
forecast.

There is the potential for Hector to affect portions of the Hawaiian
Islands by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to specify
the magnitude of any impacts or where they could occur. This is a
good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any
potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to
products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 14.2N 132.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 14.2N 134.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 14.4N 136.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 14.7N 138.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 15.1N 141.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 16.1N 147.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 16.6N 153.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 17.0N 158.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[NotSparta]

EWRC wrapping up

[Yellow Evan]

T6.0 now with barely a spec of WMG.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ21 KNES 041821
TCSENP

A. 10E (HECTOR)

B. 04/1800Z

C. 14.2N

D. 133.1W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND
EMBEDDED IN LG FOR A DT=6.0 AFTER ADDING 1.0 FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT,
MET AND AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2018 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 14:11:23 N Lon : 133:03:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 955.8mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +8.5C Cloud Region Temp : -61.2C

Scene Type : EYE

[Ntxw]

[Eric Webb]

Dvorak intensity estimates are up to T6.0 (~115 KT)

[Ntxw]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2018 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 14:11:23 N Lon : 133:03:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 955.8mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +8.5C Cloud Region Temp : -61.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Eye continues to improve.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2018 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 14:11:23 N Lon : 133:11:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 955.8mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +9.3C Cloud Region Temp : -61.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[Ntxw]

12z Euro skirts this south of Hawaii still. At the end of the run it is past the IDL and a bit further south than the 0z run raking up monstrous ACE.

[cycloneye]

110kts.

EP, 10, 2018080418, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1332W, 110, 958, HU

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HECTOR EP102018 08/04/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 108 106 102 95 89 84 78 76 76 71 70
V (KT) LAND 110 110 108 106 102 95 89 84 78 76 76 71 70
V (KT) LGEM 110 108 105 101 98 92 88 86 85 84 81 79 78
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 3 1 5 7 7 10 5 4 4 2 1 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 0 1 -7 -2 0 2 5 6 7 -2
SHEAR DIR 348 22 301 335 343 43 72 90 19 89 72 324 38
SST (C) 27.2 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.2 26.9 27.1 26.5 26.8 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.0
POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 135 139 136 134 136 130 133 128 131 134 135
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 9 8
700-500 MB RH 57 54 52 50 50 53 51 47 41 39 39 41 41
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 19 20 19 20 20 19 19 20 17 17
850 MB ENV VOR 37 45 53 50 50 51 42 49 27 26 36 37 38
200 MB DIV 27 22 0 -16 -15 -23 22 16 -17 -24 -14 -12 -11
700-850 TADV -5 -4 -5 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 -7 0 1 -3 -7
LAND (KM) 2371 2262 2152 2029 1907 1642 1351 1043 727 459 271 279 472
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.2
LONG(DEG W) 133.2 134.3 135.3 136.5 137.6 140.1 142.8 145.7 148.8 151.7 154.5 157.2 159.9
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 13 14 15 15 13 13 13 13
HEAT CONTENT 5 4 9 17 15 9 13 16 4 3 6 20 27

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -19. -27. -34. -40. -44. -47. -47.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. 0. 1. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -8. -15. -21. -26. -32. -34. -34. -39. -40.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.2 133.2

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.85 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 708.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.02 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.8% 4.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS: 9.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 18 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 23 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Kingarabian]

Waking up to see Hector looking really good with a larger eye and an increasing annular look.

[Ntxw]

110kts to me seems conservative given the solid W ring emerging.