WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Eric Webb]

Hector will be somewhere in the ballpark of 50-55 ACE units if the Euro is even close to being right thru day 10 and Hector maintains its current intensity of 105 KT on average thru the dateline, and that's before it even reaches the West Pac! Hector may intensify some the next day or two then will probably struggle more south of Hawaii before intensifying yet again as it nears 170W, arguably even more than where it is now.

[Kingarabian]

I don't normally pay attention to the steering charts on CIMSS and just go with what the models and their ensembles show. I'm confident in the models current solutions that this will go south of Hawaii. But it's worth to keep an eye out on Hectors track due to CIMSS charts showing two layers showing paths towards Hawaii (250mb, and 200mb).

250mb:


200mb:


For Hector to be influenced by the 250mb steering, it needs to have sub 950mb pressure (which it's arguably close to), and for it to be influenced by the 200mb layer it needs to be sub 940mb. Because the GFS and other models have consistently under estimated Hectors strength and been wrong in continuing to show Hector weakening, this is something to keep an eye out on.

[Kingarabian]

Center Temp : +10.6C

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1025346295303684101

[Eric Webb]

Oof, that's probably not the best time to have an ACWB over and east of Japan.

[Kingarabian]

Classic stadium effect in the eye. Reminds me of Daniel 06, Flossie 07, Iselle 2014 when they went through their annular-ish phases.This is probably near 135mph if not higher.

[Kingarabian]

Oof, that's probably not the best time to have an ACWB over and east of Japan.
[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2018080412/ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_wpac_11.png[img]

What has the world come to if Japan now has to worry about threats originating in the EPAC.

[Ntxw]

Stunning. If only GOES 17 was operational...

[Yellow Evan]

Oof, that's probably not the best time to have an ACWB over and east of Japan.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... pac_11.png

That blocking would lead to some sort of dive to the south some and no recurve till Japan, correct?

[Kingarabian]

Stunning. If only GOES 17 was operational...

[img]http://i64.tinypic.com/34qpvlf.jpg[img]

Compare Hectors superior presentation with previous hurricanes in this area, and there's no way that this is just a 125mph hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

Oof, that's probably not the best time to have an ACWB over and east of Japan.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... pac_11.png

That blocking would lead to some sort of dive to the south some and no recurve till Japan, correct?

That blocking can also RI the hell out of it.

[NotSparta]

While the environment is generally good, Hector may have a couple small roadblocks within the next 10 days. CAPE could decrease in ~3 days due to cooler SSTs, & shear could increase further out. By D10, conditions look quite favorable w/ high CAPE & low shear

[Kingarabian]

So much for the GFS weakening it in the next 24 hours...

[Kingarabian]

While the environment is generally good, Hector may have a couple small roadblocks within the next 10 days. CAPE could decrease in ~3 days due to cooler SSTs, & shear could increase further out. By D10, conditions look quite favorable w/ high CAPE & low shear

[img]https://i.imgur.com/3w5ZGrV.gif[img]

If it goes annular, SST's will be more than sufficient.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018

Satellite images indicate that the small eye of Hector has grown
larger over the past several hours, with a rapid axisymmetrization
of the eyewall convection. It seems that the eyewall cycle has
completed itself rather quickly, with one distinct eyewall now
noted. Dvorak estimates are on the rise again, and the latest
initial wind speed is set to 110 kt, which is a blend of the latest
satellite estimates. While there has been no scatterometer data
during the past day or so, the microwave data show that Hector has
grown in size, so the initial wind radii have been expanded,
although are smaller than the latest CIMSS and CSU/CIRA estimates.

Hector appears to be in the process of becoming an annular
hurricane, with little outer banding and a fairly symmetric inner
core. This subset of hurricanes is known to occur under moderate
SSTs below 28.5C, with light easterly shear and no trough
interactions. The bottom line for the intensity forecast is that
these conditions are likely to persist near Hector for the next few
days, and intensity guidance is known to have a low bias for annular
hurricanes. The new intensity forecast is raised from the previous
one, and is near or above the guidance, showing only a slow demise
over the central Pacific as environmental conditions gradually
deteriorate.

Hector continues a westward motion of 270/10 kt. A large subtropical
ridge to the north should steer the hurricane generally westward
throughout the forecast period, with Hector gradually gaining some
latitude on Sunday and beyond due to a weakness in the ridge. By 96
hours, most of the guidance shows a more due-westward motion south
of the Hawaiian Islands. The only significant change from the past
advisory is a slightly slower forward speed for the first couple of
days.

While the official forecast track continues to lie south of the
Hawaiian Islands, it is too soon to determine what kind of impacts
might occur in the state, since track errors can be large at long
range. This remains a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian
Islands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. For
additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in
Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast
Office in Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl .

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 14.2N 133.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 14.3N 135.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 14.8N 139.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 15.3N 142.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 16.3N 148.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 17.0N 160.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[wxman57]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 132.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2018 0 14.1N 132.1W 956 74
0000UTC 05.08.2018 12 14.2N 133.9W 957 78
1200UTC 05.08.2018 24 14.5N 136.1W 959 75
0000UTC 06.08.2018 36 15.0N 138.5W 958 72
1200UTC 06.08.2018 48 15.5N 141.6W 963 69
0000UTC 07.08.2018 60 16.1N 144.9W 967 66
1200UTC 07.08.2018 72 16.4N 148.1W 973 64
0000UTC 08.08.2018 84 16.6N 151.2W 975 60
1200UTC 08.08.2018 96 16.7N 154.1W 975 61
0000UTC 09.08.2018 108 17.0N 156.9W 970 66
1200UTC 09.08.2018 120 17.5N 159.8W 976 67
0000UTC 10.08.2018 132 17.8N 162.9W 980 60
1200UTC 10.08.2018 144 17.7N 165.7W 983 54

starting to see agreement on a track within ~100 miles of South Point. Very small size should spare Hawaii barring any northward adjustments

That UK (and new NHC) position of about 16.8N as it passes Hawaii puts the center a bit over 120nm (135 miles) south of the southern tip of the island. There isn't much in the way of development across the southern third of the island. Hector is such a small hurricane that it would have to track across the southern third of the island for Hilo to have a chance at hurricane force winds. Perhaps just grazing the southern tip would put TS winds into Hilo. Neither is likely to happen.

[NotSparta]

While the environment is generally good, Hector may have a couple small roadblocks within the next 10 days. CAPE could decrease in ~3 days due to cooler SSTs, & shear could increase further out. By D10, conditions look quite favorable w/ high CAPE & low shear

[img]https://i.imgur.com/3w5ZGrV.gif[img]

If it goes annular, SST's will be more than sufficient.

It just means shallower convection, but conditions still look good otherwise until 8 days if the GFS is right w/ shear (shear forecasts are difficult that far out)

[Eric Webb]

It's going to be fun to watch the ACE count for Hector continue to slowly tick upward over the next few weeks as this storm tries to make a run at Ioke's record. We're up to 10.4 points so far & if the NHC forecast thru day 5 verifies we'll have about 32 points already in the bank just as Hector passes Hawaii.

[Eric Webb]

12z EPS track guidance for Hector, looks like another weakness in the subtropical ridge to its north may show up around the dateline before it probably gets shunted westward yet again thereafter by an anticyclonic wave break east of Japan.



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1025849333005070341

[NotSparta]

It's going to be fun to watch the ACE count for Hector continue to slowly tick upward over the next few weeks as this storm tries to make a run at Ioke's record. We're up to 10.4 points so far & if the NHC forecast thru day 5 verifies we'll have about 32 points already in the bank just as Hector passes Hawaii.

Seeing as Ioke didn't start producing ACE until it passed Hawaii, Hector should have a pretty significant head start.