2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Dylan]

The only way it’ll survive is if it comes off Africa at 10N or south and stays at that low latitude until 50W. That’s asking for a lot though since these waves have seem to be coming off Africa above 10N.

Latest control run of the European Weeklies kills it.

Looking beyond that, the European Weeklies control run shows the Cape Verde hurricane season getting going in early September. Two separate storms, and both are fish.

[NDG]

Hard for me to believe the Euro showing development near or just north of the C.V. Islands with such cool SSTs, and for them to become fish with such a strong Atlantic mid level ridge so far this summer that does not want to weaken any time soon, if the strong TWs do not develop near the C.V. Islands.

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
The GFS is forecasting some impressive African easterly waves to spin up over Africa, though weaken them once they emerge out over the tropical Atlantic. The AEW weakening is a result due to large-scale subsidence over the Atlantic + cooler than average sea-surface temperature.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1025339553190694912

[AdamFirst]

Euro continuing to show a large wave emerging north of the CVI.

[TheStormExpert]

It continues to push it back for one and with the cold sst's in place that will kill it off pretty quickly so all in all, not happening.

[wxGuy]

I wouldn't say they are super cool so I wouldn't rule out a chance of development just yet. Aug 15th is right around the corner

[tolakram]

Here's the SST anomaly loop

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/sst/rsst_atl_anom_loop.php

And the analysis loop

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/sst/rsst_atl_loop.php

[Hammy]

:uarrow: It continues to push it back for one and with the cold sst's in place that will kill it off pretty quickly so all in all, not happening.

Keep in mind the Euro only shows 24 hour intervals, so if there's something there at day 10 that doesn't form until that point it's going to get pushed back a bit for a few runs.

[CyclonicFury]

:uarrow: It continues to push it back for one and with the cold sst's in place that will kill it off pretty quickly so all in all, not happening.

Something I have noticed with models is they often initially show tropical waves moving off Africa farther north than they actually come off.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro at 240 hours shows the strongest wave so far this season to emerge off of Africa:

[TheStormExpert]

I wouldn't say they are super cool so I wouldn't rule out a chance of development just yet. Aug 15th is right around the corner

Super cool or not they certainly won't support tropical development around the Cape Verde Islands. Anything North and East of that blue line I drew will not develop likely.

[PSUHiker31]

:uarrow: It continues to push it back for one and with the cold sst's in place that will kill it off pretty quickly so all in all, not happening.

Keep in mind the Euro only shows 24 hour intervals, so if there's something there at day 10 that doesn't form until that point it's going to get pushed back a bit for a few runs.

Incorrect. The Euro has 6 hour forecasts.

[MJGarrison]

:uarrow: It continues to push it back for one and with the cold sst's in place that will kill it off pretty quickly so all in all, not happening.

Keep in mind the Euro only shows 24 hour intervals, so if there's something there at day 10 that doesn't form until that point it's going to get pushed back a bit for a few runs.

Incorrect. The Euro has 6 hour forecasts.

If you’re using tropical tidbits which many of us do since it’s free, it only shows 24 hr resolution out at 10 days.


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[blp]

12Z Euro at 240 hours shows the strongest wave so far this season to emerge off of Africa:

[]https://s22.postimg.cc/p0qprmp69/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_11.png[/img]

Looks impressive indeed. If it can tap into that ITCZ moisture it might be able to sustain itself longer. I am still impressed this is showing up on the Euro which tends to underpredict these types of waves early in the season.

[Hurricaneman]

12Z Euro at 240 hours shows the strongest wave so far this season to emerge off of Africa:

[]https://s22.postimg.cc/p0qprmp69/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_11.png[/img]

Looks impressive indeed. If it can tap into that ITCZ moisture it might be able to sustain itself longer. I am still impressed this is showing up on the Euro which tends to underpredict these types of waves early in the season.

The thing is all models are showing this wave, even if in water cooler than optimum for tropical systems if something like this can keep vorticity and even shallow convection this could be a problem farther west as the models show ridging in a way that could be a problem for North America in the long run as models tend to have waves exit Africa too far north and sometimes to the magnitude of as much as 5 degrees too far north

[storm4u]

Keep in mind the Euro only shows 24 hour intervals, so if there's something there at day 10 that doesn't form until that point it's going to get pushed back a bit for a few runs.

Incorrect. The Euro has 6 hour forecasts.

If you’re using tropical tidbits which many of us do since it’s free, it only shows 24 hr resolution out at 10 days.


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You can use weather.us it's free and has it in 6 hour intervals!!!

[storm4u]

Weather.us even has euro ensemble tracks it's awesome

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/Weathernerds/status/1026119625040424961

[Hurricaneman]

The models seem to be showing a pattern change towards more active around the 15th and I think things will take off at or just after the 20th so we’ll see

[USTropics]

The 00z global models continue to show a robust AEW entering the EATL in about 7-8 days:


Dry air and relatively low SST's, especially given the more northern latitude it will be departing at, could be a lethal combo: