Texas Summer 2018

[Ntxw]

WPC is warming up to the idea of some rain

[lrak]

I wonder what that blob off the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras will do? I haven't seen anyone say anything about it yet. Too much shear?

[weatherdude1108]

This is the most encouraging discussion I have seen in a while. Even the EWX said so.

National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
254 PM CDT Sat Aug 4 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across
CRP and HGX CWAs and beginning to head into Karnes, DeWitt and
Lavaca counties. Most, if not all, convective activity should remain
east of Interstate 35 today. Temperatures will top out across the mid
to upper 90s for most of the region this afternoon under a scattered
cumulus cloud field and breezy southeasterly winds. Overnight lows
tonight will be warmer than the previous few nights as increased
moisture continues to pour into south central Texas. This will also
help create a substantial stratus deck tomorrow morning across much
of the escarpment and points east. Morning stratus should scatter out
by late Sunday morning, with highs on Sunday pretty similar to those
of today and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected across the eastern and southeastern counties of the coastal
plains. It is possible that some of these may make it as far west as
the Interstate 35 corridor from San Antonio up to Austin.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Not much change to the weather pattern for Monday and Tuesday. Near
normal temperatures, partly cloudy skies, southeasterly winds, and
diurnally driven afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms along
and east of I-35 can be expected. Slightly more elevated dewpoints
will increase heat indices into the 100 to 105 range for all areas
except for the Hill Country for Monday.

The synoptic weather pattern begins to change late Wednesday and
into the weekend. The upper level high across the desert southwest
drifts northward into the Great Basin, amplifying the ridge across
the western US and leading to troughing across the southern plains
and extending into central Texas. This will put our region under
northwesterly mid to upper level flow, and will allow a series of
disturbances to impact the region. The result will be decent chances
for showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday, with the
possibility of some substantial accumulated rainfall, especially for
portions of the Hill Country and the northern half of the CWA. The
most recent WPC 7 day QPF product shows anywhere from around a
quarter of an inch to an inch of rain across south central Texas.
CPC`s most recent 6 to 10 day precipitation outlook shows odds tilted
toward above normal precipitation during this time period. Grids from
this forecast package are only advertising 30 to 40 percent PoPs for
Thursday through Saturday since we are still 5+ days out, but things
are looking encouraging.

[JDawg512]

My rain senses are starting to tingle. Gonna wait a few more days but it does look promising for later next week.

[Haris]

Best case scenario

[srainhoutx]

Looking over the 12Z suite of guidance the GFS remains the sole outlier regarding the late week expected forecast. The Euro and the Canadian are in very good agreement with the lowering of heights across Texas and cooler 850mb temperatures as well as a stalled boundary along or just S of a Junction to Austin to Lake Livingston line. If the guidance holds, a good soaking of generally 2 to 4 inches may be possible later this week into next weekend with isolated totals of 5 to 7 inches possible and isolated higher amounts as well depending on mesoscale features we just cannot foresee at this range. Fingers Crossed!

[Haris]

Wettest Run of the euro ensemble yet ! ! !

3-5” state wide !!!

[TheProfessor]

There are a lot of very wet ensemble members on the 12z Euro.

[Ntxw]

Trades have significantly weakened and will do so more in the Pacific. The Nino'esque like atmosphere is going to kick in. Hector in the EPAC is embarking on a potential record breaking track from the East Pacific to maybe Asia and break world wide ACE records. All this of course has implications on tropical forcing and subsequently ENSO movements thus our upstream weather. Fun times

[rwfromkansas]

I will wait to get excited until it’s within 24 hours due to numerous false hopes since spring. But, it seems stronger this time. All the grass is nothing but brown. We need rain.

[NotSparta]

Trades have significantly weakened and will do so more in the Pacific. The Nino'esque like atmosphere is going to kick in. Hector in the EPAC is embarking on a potential record breaking track from the East Pacific to maybe Asia and break world wide ACE records. All this of course has implications on tropical forcing and subsequently ENSO movements thus our upstream weather. Fun times

If the Niño atmospheric pattern really sets in soon, that may mean a pretty interesting winter

[Ntxw]

Trades have significantly weakened and will do so more in the Pacific. The Nino'esque like atmosphere is going to kick in. Hector in the EPAC is embarking on a potential record breaking track from the East Pacific to maybe Asia and break world wide ACE records. All this of course has implications on tropical forcing and subsequently ENSO movements thus our upstream weather. Fun times

If the Niño atmospheric pattern really sets in soon, that may mean a pretty interesting winter

You have no idea how many of us here are hoping for this. We've had such snow-less winters it's been rather dull in that department. The general wetter pattern across the southern plains and warmer/drier further north in the fall is pretty typical of weak/moderate +ENSO events for our region.

[NotSparta]

Trades have significantly weakened and will do so more in the Pacific. The Nino'esque like atmosphere is going to kick in. Hector in the EPAC is embarking on a potential record breaking track from the East Pacific to maybe Asia and break world wide ACE records. All this of course has implications on tropical forcing and subsequently ENSO movements thus our upstream weather. Fun times

If the Niño atmospheric pattern really sets in soon, that may mean a pretty interesting winter

You have no idea how many of us here are hoping for this. We've had such snow-less winters it's been rather dull in that department. The general wetter pattern across the southern plains and warmer/drier further north in the fall is pretty typical of weak/moderate +ENSO events for our region.

Yeah, this set of conditions is pretty much the best you can get. Headed into a solar min, -QBO, & +ENSO.

[Haris]

If the Niño atmospheric pattern really sets in soon, that may mean a pretty interesting winter

You have no idea how many of us here are hoping for this. We've had such snow-less winters it's been rather dull in that department. The general wetter pattern across the southern plains and warmer/drier further north in the fall is pretty typical of weak/moderate +ENSO events for our region.

Yeah, this set of conditions is pretty much the best you can get. Headed into a solar min, -QBO, & +ENSO.

I can't wait!!! Go Nino Go!

[weatherdude1108]

[Brent]

Trades have significantly weakened and will do so more in the Pacific. The Nino'esque like atmosphere is going to kick in. Hector in the EPAC is embarking on a potential record breaking track from the East Pacific to maybe Asia and break world wide ACE records. All this of course has implications on tropical forcing and subsequently ENSO movements thus our upstream weather. Fun times

If the Niño atmospheric pattern really sets in soon, that may mean a pretty interesting winter

You have no idea how many of us here are hoping for this. We've had such snow-less winters it's been rather dull in that department. The general wetter pattern across the southern plains and warmer/drier further north in the fall is pretty typical of weak/moderate +ENSO events for our region.

Yeah seriously these last few winters have been beyond dreadful here in DFW to me. Really hoping we turn things around this year

[bubba hotep]

After covering rain chances for the remainder of this week FWD drops this in at the end of the AFD:

If extended guidance is to be believed, we could
enter another wet pattern next week

[Haris]

UGH GFS is terrible

[weatherdude1108]

Yeah, what is up with this? I mean, I know west central Texas and the panhandle is more parched, but we need it too. I know it's just one run, but not impressive like it was.

We'll have to rely on outflows in our area from areas to the north, as long as the outflows don't stabilize the atmosphere, evaporating our rain chances.

[Haris]

Model disagreement at it's finest