WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What?

and they expect another bout of strengthening at this time, turning WNW to NW here, no full recurve

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 AUG 2018 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 14:30:36 N Lon : 138:13:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 938.8mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -1.5C Cloud Region Temp : -71.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[Eric Webb]

Yeah I have to agree, this is the best Hector has ever looked to date, 120 or 125 KT seems reasonable if it can hold this thru the next advisory. This storm is progressively becoming more annular with each EWRC, I think another one may finally do it although I wish its eye was larger.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 AUG 2018 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 14:31:12 N Lon : 138:16:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 938.7mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +0.5C Cloud Region Temp : -71.3C

Scene Type : EYE

[NotSparta]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 AUG 2018 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 14:30:36 N Lon : 138:13:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 938.8mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -1.5C Cloud Region Temp : -71.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Estimates would probably be getting into strong Category 4 intensity if the eye was warmer

[Ntxw]

I have seen higher estimates with less impressive looking storms on satellite. When GOES-16 was able to view the EPAC some time ago better before it's current location, often times the eyes were warmer than what GOES-15 was seeing. This is at least 125kts IMO if not more.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through about 23:20Z on Sunday (7:20pm EDT / 1:20pm HST):

[1900hurricane]

GOES-15 is positioned at 135ºW, so the viewing angle is about as good as it gets right now.

If Hector can maintain the white ring at sufficient width to 00Z, I'd go 125 kt. Otherwise, I'd probably go 120 kt.

[Ntxw]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 AUG 2018 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 14:30:36 N Lon : 138:25:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 936.6mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +2.6C Cloud Region Temp : -71.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[Chris90]

It's a shame recon isn't flying eyewall penetrations yet. I think if they were in there right now they would find a storm that was stronger than 120-125kts. It's a small, westward moving storm displaying annular characteristics with an impressive satellite presentation, it wouldn't be the first time a storm like this exceeded satellite estimates by a fair amount. I'm guessing it is closer to 135-140kts.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

More ACE than forecast. I bet it's going to reach 40-45 before Saturday. I'm now doubting the intensity forecast. This was supposed to weaken to about a cat 2-3 by now but it's doing the practical opposite.

[NotSparta]

I have seen higher estimates with less impressive looking storms on satellite. When GOES-16 was able to view the EPAC some time ago better before it's current location, often times the eyes were warmer than what GOES-15 was seeing. This is at least 125kts IMO if not more.

[img]http://i64.tinypic.com/2a7vqbn.gif[/mg]

[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/aa91ms.gif[/im]

GOES-16's higher resolution make readings warmer, but the viewing angle now is so great it's nearly unusable

[Kingarabian]

It's sub 940mb now, meaning it's much more subject to deep layer steering.

[Eric Webb]

NHC has issued a special advisory to bump Hector to 120 KT

5:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 5
Location: 14.5°N 138.6°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

[Ntxw]

I have seen higher estimates with less impressive looking storms on satellite. When GOES-16 was able to view the EPAC some time ago better before it's current location, often times the eyes were warmer than what GOES-15 was seeing. This is at least 125kts IMO if not more.

[img]http://i64.tinypic.com/2a7vqbn.gif[/mg]

[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/aa91ms.gif[/im]

GOES-16's higher resolution make readings warmer, but the viewing angle now is so great it's nearly unusable

Yeah, it's no longer in position for that kind of view. But the better resolution back then when it looked at storms compared to GOES-15 at the time was better, showing it was possible such storms were/are underestimated.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This is now a serious challenger to Ioke. The challenge isn't as steep anymore. I now strongly doubt this weakening to 80-85 kts soon. That could be unrealistic given how this has sustained its intensity for an already extended period of time and that the anticipated weakening hasn't come into fruition.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

By 11 AM (not the special advisory), this should be 125-130 kts

[Ntxw]

This is now a serious challenger to Ioke. The challenge isn't as steep anymore. I now strongly doubt this weakening to 80-85 kts soon. That could be unrealistic given how this has sustained its intensity for an already extended period of time and that the anticipated weakening hasn't come into fruition.

As Eric Webb mentioned, Hector has a headstart on Ioke given what it has already done in the EPAC.

[1900hurricane]

I guess that means 00Z intensity is 120 kt then. Saves me the trouble of waiting for best track to update.

[Eric Webb]

"Satellite data indicate that the hurricane has continued to strengthen during the past 6 h, and the initial intensity has increased to at least 120 kt."
NHC essentially thinks Hector is no weaker than 120 KT, if Hector strengthens even a little could see them throw 125 KT at the next advisory.