WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Eric Webb]

Recon is slated to leave for Hector around 10am eastern, we should know by early-mid afternoon just how strong this storm is.

[Twisted-core]

hpa is still dropping atm.as per ADT
2018AUG06 110000 6.8 929.4 134.8 6.8 6.8 6.8



https://imgur.com/vvGZFAd
on adjustment is 140

[Eric Webb]

Curious to see what SAB says at 12z because this is what led the CPHC to believe Hector is still 120 KT, 125-130 KT seems more reasonable given its current organization.

[tolakram]

I had a time (exaggeration) finding the CPAC website because I don't have a saved link. NHC should really make this more prominent on their main page, even if they aren't tracking Hector anymore. End of complaint.

[hurricanes1234]

The symmetry of this storm is absolutely stunning. I can't wait to see what recon will find later. This basin has made a resounding comeback from its deathly silence in July.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I don't know which is making me more excited/nervous.... My first day of school tomorrow, or the recon mission???

The symmetry of this storm is absolutely stunning. I can't wait to see what recon will find later. This basin has made a resounding comeback from its deathly silence in July.

And it's still August 6th and we're about to have three hurricanes in just two days, perhaps two category 4's.

[Eric Webb]

EP, 10, 2018080612, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1413W, 125, 941, HU

BEST track just updated, 125 KT is conservatively reasonable for Hector

[xtyphooncyclonex]

T6.5. They should have gone with 130 kts.

[Update: BT was posted first by Eric Webb, but yeah]

NHC's intensity forecast is busting big time!

HECTOR 10E T6.5/6.5 06/1130Z Central Pacific

[1900hurricane]

For reference, SATCON is at about 130 kt.

[euro6208]

A Super Typhoon in the WPAC.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Compared to the 04/1500Z forecast for 06/1200X (now), Hector is 0.2 degrees south and 0.0-0.1 degrees east of forecast while being at least 20 knots stronger. At the time, this would have weakened to a mid-grade category 3 by now. There's no weakening, and intensification is likely to continue.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2018 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 14:53:59 N Lon : 141:23:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 929.4mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +6.3C Cloud Region Temp : -73.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[Ntxw]

Worth at least 130kts imo. Probably one of the most anticipated CPAC recon missions I can remember

[NotSparta]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HECTOR EP102018 08/06/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 122 120 116 107 102 93 86 83 77 77 75
V (KT) LAND 125 124 122 120 116 107 102 93 86 83 77 77 75
V (KT) LGEM 125 121 116 111 106 99 96 90 86 86 89 93 95
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 2 3 3 1 3 7 12 11 5 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -1 1 1 5 4 0 0 -6 -2 3
SHEAR DIR 25 51 80 70 13 121 90 229 8 20 30 59 214
SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 133 133 132 131 133 134 136 138 142 142 144
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10
700-500 MB RH 52 48 52 49 48 42 40 35 33 34 36 37 41
MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 22 22 21 23 21 20 23 23 25 24
850 MB ENV VOR 37 46 53 51 39 25 45 57 76 91 86 81 93
200 MB DIV 11 17 20 -2 -13 18 2 3 -15 1 -20 7 29
700-850 TADV -5 -7 -8 -9 -11 -5 0 4 -5 -4 -2 -3 -5
LAND (KM) 1521 1376 1232 1078 927 604 344 262 479 652 815 1022 1249
LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.4 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6
LONG(DEG W) 141.3 142.7 144.0 145.5 146.9 150.1 153.3 156.5 159.6 162.6 165.5 168.2 170.8
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 7 11 8 11 9 3 10 20 22 29 28 38 35

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -26. -36. -45. -52. -58. -61. -62. -61.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 1. -0. 3. 3. 5. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -9. -18. -23. -32. -39. -42. -48. -48. -50.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 14.9 141.3

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 886.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.4% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN41 PHFO 061147
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1150 UTC MON AUG 06 2018

A. HURRICANE HECTOR EP102018.

B. 06/1130Z.

C. 14.9N.

D. 141.1W.

E. GOES15.

F. T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24 HOURS.

G. IR/EIR.

H. Remarks: OW EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN B YIELDS E-NO OF 5.5 AND +.5 FOR ADJUSTMENT DUE TO W SURROUNDING. DT OF 6.0 WITH PAT AND MET IN AGREEMENT. Final T BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS NONE.

$$

Eye number is T6.0.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPZ01 PGTW 061450

A. HURRICANE 10E (HECTOR)

B. 06/1431Z

C. 14.99N

D. 141.72W

E. ONE/GOES15

F. T6.5/6.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS AN
E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF 6.0.
MET AND PT YIELD A 6.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE

[hurricanes1234]

The first mission is scheduled to depart around 1730z, correct?

[Yellow Evan]

The first mission is scheduled to depart around 1730z, correct?

It'll be in the storm from 17z to 2330z. Departed at 14z.

[hurricanes1234]

The first mission is scheduled to depart around 1730z, correct?

It'll be in the storm from 17z to 2330z. Departed at 14z.

Ohhh ok. Just about an hour left then.

[TheAustinMan]

I'm a sucker for satellite images of tropical cyclones, especially interesting side views that can only be observed in low-earth orbit or near the limbs of full disk geostationary imagery. Here's a zoomed out and zoomed in shot of Hector and its eye as seen from Himawari-8 on the edge of its full disk view this morning. Himawari-8 imagery of this variety is available at https://himawari8.nict.go.jp/. The Hawaiian Islands are still in the dark towards the southwest.

232 KB

72KB