Texas Summer 2018

[Yukon Cornelius]

From 102 yesterday to overcast and 81 at 2:00 today. Amazing.

[South Texas Storms]

[img]https://image.ibb.co/mnyvap/Screen_Shot_2018_08_08_at_2_04_24_PM.png


I was pondering about whether this could happen again!? Last September , the models had the heaviest rains from a trough W and N of Austin w/ a sharp gradient .

But a MCV traveled further E than expected and eroded the ridge over the gulf allowing as you see above , the 1/2" - 1" forecast becoming 2-5"/ opinions anyone???

And yes thats my profile

I'm thinking something similar might be possible. Something we will need to keep an eye on. Let's hope so!

[weatherdude1108]

[img]https://image.ibb.co/mnyvap/Screen_Shot_2018_08_08_at_2_04_24_PM.png


I was pondering about whether this could happen again!? Last September , the models had the heaviest rains from a trough W and N of Austin w/ a sharp gradient .

But a MCV traveled further E than expected and eroded the ridge over the gulf allowing as you see above , the 1/2" - 1" forecast becoming 2-5"/ opinions anyone???

And yes thats my profile

I'm thinking something similar might be possible. Something we will need to keep an eye on. Let's hope so!

I hope so too! Fingers crossed!

[bubba hotep]

18z NAM 3k is probably accurate since it shows 0.00" at DFW through 40 hrs lol

[weatherdude1108]

The hill country is expected to get more rain, with lesser amounts towards areas near I35. The landscape everywhere needs it, but they need it more in the hills than we do, so it's ok if this pans out. Sprinkler business as usual.
Hmmm.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
301 PM CDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to affect
parts of the Coastal Plains and southeast counties of South Central
Texas through late this afternoon or early evening. This type of
seabreeze convection activity is tapping into an area where
precipitable water values are ranging from 1.9 to 2.0 inches per the
12Z CRP sounding data and the latest (1937Z) GOES Total Precipitable
Water imagery. With that said, stronger storms are capable of
producing downpours with 1 to 2 inches of rainfall accumulations if
storms move slowly. Once again, this activity should come to an end
late this afternoon or early evening with the loss of daytime
heating.

For tonight into Thursday...Several upper level disturbances are
expected to push from the Texas panhandle and central Texas areas.
These disturbances are expected to tap into a moist airmass that resides
across the eastern part of Texas to produce scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. At this point, all HiRes and medium range
models keep the area dry and these outflows fade while pushing to the
south.

The seabreeze will kick in once again Thursday afternoon with most of
the activity occurring along and east of I-35. It looks like the
upper level disturbances will be around Thursday afternoon and will
trigger a second round of outflows that could make it to the Hill
Country. With the moisture available and moderate instability in
place, can`t ruled out stronger storms to produce heavy downpours and
wind gusts up to 40 mph in addition to occasional CG lightning
strikes. The main outflow/storm producer should fade out near the
I-35 corridor. Things should quiet down late Thursday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Good chances for rain continue for the Hill Country and escarpment
areas through early next week as remnant of outflow boundaries and
mesoscale convective systems remain between central Texas and the
Hill Country. The Weather Prediction Center 1 to 5 day total
rainfall accumulation map shows 1 to 2 inches over parts of the
southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country with less than one inch
east and to the south of Interstate 35.
Weather conditions improve next Tuesday as an upper level low
pressure system pushes off central Texas into the northeast.

Temperatures will be cooler over the weekend as cloudiness and rain
chances remain in place.

[Brent]

18z NAM 3k is probably accurate since it shows 0.00" at DFW through 40 hrs lol

I swear rain is getting as rare as snow at DFW

[Haris]

Friday -

[weatherdude1108]

That would be BEAUTIFUL.

[Ntxw]

High at DFW today was only 93, below average.

Edit to correct low was 81

[Ntxw]

The good news..

We are now at the climatological peak of summer, the summit. By this time next week daily averages begins to fall, starting with lows as we descend the mountain. And it will continue to fall until January

The even better news..the disturbed weather will keep things below normal anyway with chances for rainfall. Who needs climo?

[Brent]

HRRR looks decent for most of DFW tonight

We can hope. So ready for all this rain we've heard about

[Haris]

[bubba hotep]

HRRR looks decent for most of DFW tonight

We can hope. So ready for all this rain we've heard about

The 00z NAM 3k looks decent for us in Collin County but makes sure to basically shut out DFW tonight. The airport has only measured 1.52" since June 1st

[Brent]

HRRR looks decent for most of DFW tonight

We can hope. So ready for all this rain we've heard about

The 00z NAM 3k looks decent for us in Collin County but makes sure to basically shut out DFW tonight. The airport has only measured 1.52" since June 1st

Lol its crazy how localized this might be

The new hrrr is much drier for most of the metro

[gpsnowman]

Absolutely pouring at work right now. 'Bout damn time.

[Yukon Cornelius]

So much for that 70% chance of rain last night. Not a drop.

[weatherdude1108]

Good discussion this morning. We may get a half inch if we are lucky. Areas northwest more, where it is needed more. Pretty much sums it up. Then the high returns next week.smh

907
FXUS64 KEWX 090832
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
332 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across much of North Texas from
Midland to near San Angelo to a few storms remaining around the DFW
Metroplex. All of this activity is being handled relatively poor by
the high resolution models. The 00z run of the Texas Tech WRF seems
to capture it the best of the CAMs currently out there. It shows the
activity weakening as it pushes to the south towards the Edwards
Plateau through the morning hours. While storms north of Brownwood
have already begun to weaken other storms north of San Angelo have
become outflow dominate so these should begin to weaken as well. This
activity will have to be watched through the mornings hours for
additional development not picked up by the models.

What this activity will do is produce additional outflow boundaries
that will help provide lift and focus for showers and thunderstorm
activity Thursday. The outflows will be aided by the front across
North Texas and disturbances rotating around the eastern side of the
ridge situated across Arizona and New Mexico. The Edwards Plateau and
Hill Country will be the focus for precipitation on Thursday, along
with some isolated sea breeze activity to the east of I-35. With the
increased moisture over the area still being pumped in due to the
southerly flow afternoon highs will reach into the mid to upper 90s,
with heat index values along I-35 topping out around 102-105. In
addition, model soundings show about 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE and some
inverted-V soundings which suggest that some of the isolated storms
today could produce some brief gusty outflow winds. A heavy downpour
and cloud- to-ground lightning will also be a concern with any
afternoon activity today.

Overnight tonight residual showers and storms could linger through
most of the night, but generally coverage will decrease during the
overnight hours. Rain chances increase into Friday as the front sags
south and begins to become more diffuse. While the Edwards Plateau
and Hill Country remain the areas most likely to see precipitation
through Friday the outflow from any storms that do occur could lead
to other isolated showers and storms farther south into Central
Texas. Exactly how far south the front gets before it washes out and
what boundaries from previous storm activity will be the main
determinants of who gets rain on Friday. With the increased cloud
cover and rain across the Hill Country and Austin Metro area highs on
Friday will be held in the mid 90s, while areas to the South and
West (Del Rio to San Antonio) will see partly cloudy skies allowing
for temperatures to rise into the upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Friday night into the weekend the ridge over the Western United
States retreats to the northwest as Hurricane John and Tropical
Storm Kristy weaken and become post-tropical to the west of Baja
California. This will allow a low pressure to develop and become
nearly stationary across West Texas and/or the Texas Panhandle. The
NAM, GFS, and ECWMF all have the low in slightly different places
which influence where the models produce the highest QPF over the
weekend. While amounts vary from 2-4 inches from the ECMWF to 5+
inches from the GFS and ECMWF through Monday, they all agree that the
heaviest precipitation will remain to the northwest of our forecast
area from Midland to San Angelo to Abilene.

This doesn`t mean we will be completely dry through. Areas closer to
the cut off low - the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country could see 1-2
inches of rainfall through Monday, with lesser amounts as you go
south and east (Based on current forecasts San Antonio may see 1/4 to
1/2 inch, while Austin may see 1/2 to 3/4 of inch). The low pressure
hangs out over the Panhandle through Tuesday morning before getting
picked up in the upper level flow and becoming a trough pushing off
to the east. The ridge over the four corners region and the northern
Gulf of Mexico begin to build late into next week ending rain chances
after Tuesday. The good news is that the areas that are forecast to
see the most rain through early next week are the areas of Central
Texas that are currently experiencing the highest drought with
"Extreme Drought" stretching from Val Verde through Real County up
into Gillespie and Llano Counties. The rain will be welcome in these
areas, with the rest of us hoping for some isolated to scattered
showers and storms kicked off by the outflows and possible MCS/MCVs
that may develop in association with the cutoff low. The other good
news is that the weekend will only see highs in the mid 90s for most
of South Central Texas, a few degrees below seasonal normals. As
conditions dry out into the middle and late part of next week, high
pressure results in increasing temperatures once again.

[bubba hotep]

So much for that 70% chance of rain last night. Not a drop.

It's been a tough week for models and forecasters here in N. TX.

[rwfromkansas]

This is feeling like Lucy taking our football now. Woke up...no rain yet north FW and radar almost clear.

Did rain decent just north of me in areas that already had rain this summer of course.

[Ntxw]

The airport got about a quarter of an inch.

Highs will be around 90. Take it while you can, this time of year it can be 110...2011