CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Do you think this storm has a shot of becoming a major?

Very good chance it becomes one.

I thibk so too tbh

peak prediction?

I'd say this ends up at ~120 knots.

[StruThiO]

I'll go with 125 kt

[CyclonicFury]

I agree, most likely 115-120 knots. Probably not a Category 5 though since Category 5s are quite rare in this basin.

[Ntxw]

~120kts is my guess also. If it gets a recon mission then 130kts

[DioBrando]

I'd say 115/120 knots

[Kingarabian]

I would go with 120-130kts. If we have recon early, maybe 135kts.

The sweet spot will be between 130W and 140W. Today's CIMSS shear charts show deep layer shear retreating ahead of Lane, and mid level shear becoming non existent once it gets to 130W.



In the time being there will be about 10-15kts of mid level shear which is not that bad but it may lower RI odds in the short term.

[storminabox]

How much ACE do you guys think this storm will generate?

[DioBrando]

How much ACE do you guys think this storm will generate?

about 25

[Kingarabian]

How much ACE do you guys think this storm will generate?

If it takes the GFS track maybe up to 20-25 ACE.

If it takes the Euro's track which marches this south of Hawaii to the west, maybe the same amount as Hector.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro through hour 144:

[Yellow Evan]

15/1800 UTC 10.1N 123.9W T3.0/3.0 14E -- East Pacific

[ncapps]

The Euro continues to hold it's course. Quicker, weaker, further south. Takes a Hector like path?

[Kingarabian]

15/1800 UTC 10.1N 123.9W T3.0/3.0 14E -- East Pacific

I would go with 50kts here with that SAB estimate and also based on the deep convection within the CDO:

[CyclonicFury]

18z BT is 40kt. Likely lower than the Dvorak estimates due to a recent ASCAT pass which didn't show any barbs stronger than 30-35 kt.

[Kingarabian]

The Euro continues to hold it's course. Quicker, weaker, further south. Takes a Hector like path?

Quicker and further south makes sense due to a stronger ridge being modeled out. However, the Euro's intensity estimates in the CPAC and EPAC have been suspect this season and seasons past.

[ncapps]

The Euro continues to hold it's course. Quicker, weaker, further south. Takes a Hector like path?

Quicker and further south makes sense due to a stronger ridge being modeled out. However, the Euro's intensity estimates in the CPAC and EPAC have been suspect this season and seasons past.

To be honest, I hope the Euro is correct. I arrive in PHNL the 24th....

[Ntxw]

The Euro continues to hold it's course. Quicker, weaker, further south. Takes a Hector like path?

Quicker and further south makes sense due to a stronger ridge being modeled out. However, the Euro's intensity estimates in the CPAC and EPAC have been suspect this season and seasons past.

Yeah Hector proved this, generally relying on globals for strength won't tell the true intensity. Higher res models are generally better but even then it is a fickle to forecast.

[Kingarabian]

The Euro continues to hold it's course. Quicker, weaker, further south. Takes a Hector like path?

Quicker and further south makes sense due to a stronger ridge being modeled out. However, the Euro's intensity estimates in the CPAC and EPAC have been suspect this season and seasons past.

To be honest, I hope the Euro is correct. I arrive in PHNL the 24th....[/quote]

I hope so too. Especially since Hawaii's building codes are not the best.

[Alyono]

given the ridging expected, I'm not sure even a cat 5 will gain enough latitude to impact Hawaii

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS is rolling. Strongest members are the furthest north with some impacting Hawaii.