ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[CourierPR]

[quote="GCANE"]This popped up all of a sudden.
Looking at VIS sat and latest GFS low-level wind initialization, GFS is obviously missing the boat.
We may see some scrambling in the next 24 hrs.

Joe Bastardi mentioned this. He says he has more interest in this than 99L.

[GCANE]

This is starting to look pretty good, especially for the middle of the day.
Improving low-level convergence, lots of mid-level moisture, convection continuing to fire off.

[AnnularCane]

This popped up all of a sudden.
Looking at VIS sat and latest GFS low-level wind initialization, GFS is obviously missing the boat.
We may see some scrambling in the next 24 hrs.

I feel kind of silly, since maybe it should be totally obvious, but I'm not sure what exactly this is showing, other than Ernesto.

[GCANE]

This popped up all of a sudden.
Looking at VIS sat and latest GFS low-level wind initialization, GFS is obviously missing the boat.
We may see some scrambling in the next 24 hrs.

I feel kind of silly, since maybe it should be totally obvious, but I'm not sure what exactly this is showing, other than Ernesto.

Its that large orange area around 10N 50W. Was barely there 6 hrs ago.

[cycloneye]

Levi throws cold water.

@TropicalTidbits
Invest #99L is one of those tropical waves that looks ok within the broad monsoon deformation zone, but it's mostly shear vorticity, and very little curvature vorticity, which makes consolidation difficult because convective heating is not confined in a coherent space.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1030104306794618881

[cycloneye]

20/20.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Ernesto located several hundred miles east-southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland.

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
about 700 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is associated
with a tropical wave. Some development of this system is possible
over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
around 15 mph toward the Windward Islands. By late Saturday,
unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the chances for
additional development while the system moves over the eastern
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is
likely to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser
Antilles on Friday and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[GCANE]

Levi throws cold water.

Good job Levi.
Cloud tops are getting colder.

[AutoPenalti]

Well that does sort of answer my question as to why I keep seeing popcorn convection from time to time.


He does however add this little snippet:

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1030104311479656448

[abajan]

Levi throws cold water.

Good job Levi.
Cloud tops are getting colder.

http://i68.tinypic.com/a6pna.jpg

Too funny

[floridasun78]

look like going run into south America

[SEASON_CANCELED]

NOT LIKING THAT SUBTLE HINT OF NORTHERN ACTION

[brohavwx]

Levi throws cold water.

Good job Levi.
Cloud tops are getting colder.

http://i68.tinypic.com/a6pna.jpg

Too funny

Yes, you would have just seen my post on our Admin/Moderator Chat (Barbados Weather Watchers Reloaded on Facebook) ...

"Strong TW with some Showers - moderate to heavy - and possible Thundershowers and gusty winds. May notice wind shifts - Northerly to Westerly and then Southerly - if it still has some cyclonic turning when and if it passes over us. Wind direction will depend on position ... which we all know is the art of gunnery."

That said, this is an odd year and I expect anything to happen. It could revive over-night ... Beryl did.

[ObsessedMiami]

Wouldn't be back to school week in Miami without something to ponder

With the Bermuda High, I'm not entirely sure it's a Miami issue...for now.

I know.... I'm still here during a back to school week. And thats the usual.

[Nimbus]

Looks like some energy is focusing down near 8.88 degrees, ~-53 if that area develops it will barely clear South America and would take a more heavily sheared track.

[FireBird]

I don't comment much but I feel it warranted. It was disappointing earlier to see dismissive comments by a professional met concerning this seemingly insignificant system. Though I am fairly sure that no one here expects a named storm, please let me remind you that as small islands, we have no where to evacuate to. Further, most our lands are hilly and well watered making heavier than usual rainfall a nightmare with millions of dollars in losses. We just had a couple hours of ITCZ rainfall followed by normal wave rainfall on two consecutive days this week, and cleanup is still taking place across the country. My brother still has 4ft of water in his yard, with hundreds of thousands of dollars of loss for him alone. No need to patronize us. We just expect professional response with meaningful data on rainfall totals and wind values so we can prepare....

[GCANE]

Long duration, large vortical hot tower firing off just south of 12N.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Could really see the winds pick up to a northerly direction east of 50W before this fired off.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Scrambling may come sooner than I thought.

[stormlover2013]

I don't comment much but I feel it warranted. It was disappointing earlier to see dismissive comments by a professional met concerning this seemingly insignificant system. Though I am fairly sure that no one here expects a named storm, please let me remind you that as small islands, we have no where to evacuate to. Further, most our lands are hilly and well watered making heavier than usual rainfall a nightmare with millions of dollars in losses. We just had a couple hours of ITCZ rainfall followed by normal wave rainfall on two consecutive days this week, and cleanup is still taking place across the country. My brother still has 4ft of water in his yard, with hundreds of thousands of dollars of loss for him alone. No need to patronize us. We just expect professional response with meaningful data on rainfall totals and wind values so we can prepare....

well if you know how to look at model runs and etc and look at the precit chart you can figure some of this stuff out, anyone that follows this stuff knows there is to much shear right now and waves seem to explode little bit during the day and die during the night

[brohavwx]

I don't comment much but I feel it warranted. It was disappointing earlier to see dismissive comments by a professional met concerning this seemingly insignificant system. Though I am fairly sure that no one here expects a named storm, please let me remind you that as small islands, we have no where to evacuate to. Further, most our lands are hilly and well watered making heavier than usual rainfall a nightmare with millions of dollars in losses. We just had a couple hours of ITCZ rainfall followed by normal wave rainfall on two consecutive days this week, and cleanup is still taking place across the country. My brother still has 4ft of water in his yard, with hundreds of thousands of dollars of loss for him alone. No need to patronize us. We just expect professional response with meaningful data on rainfall totals and wind values so we can prepare....

Well said, especially about the part of no where to evacuate - although I've known a few of us Barbadians (Bajans), with the time and means, to fly south to Trinidad when we get threatened. Barbados is only 21x14 miles and about 285,000 people (one of the most densely places in the world - 4th most densely populated country in the Americas, and 15th globally) and augmented by several thousand Tourists (from the USA, Canada, etc. - depending on the time of year) who if they cannot 'get out of dodge', have no where to evacuate to neither.

When these systems have had a go at us (in the Caribbean) and we then provide what DATA we get for whomever comes next, either the larger islands and then the usually the USA. Otherwise, we only have one or two ships (who are trying to get out of the way) and some buoys (which have been going offline in recent years) East of us in the 3,000 miles of MDR open ocean as its like to be called. Don't get me started on lack of Scatterometer Data.

[Alyono]

I don't comment much but I feel it warranted. It was disappointing earlier to see dismissive comments by a professional met concerning this seemingly insignificant system. Though I am fairly sure that no one here expects a named storm, please let me remind you that as small islands, we have no where to evacuate to. Further, most our lands are hilly and well watered making heavier than usual rainfall a nightmare with millions of dollars in losses. We just had a couple hours of ITCZ rainfall followed by normal wave rainfall on two consecutive days this week, and cleanup is still taking place across the country. My brother still has 4ft of water in his yard, with hundreds of thousands of dollars of loss for him alone. No need to patronize us. We just expect professional response with meaningful data on rainfall totals and wind values so we can prepare....

well if you know how to look at model runs and etc and look at the precit chart you can figure some of this stuff out, anyone that follows this stuff knows there is to much shear right now and waves seem to explode little bit during the day and die during the night

also, when I have rapidly intensifying cyclones plowing into Shanghai and northern Vietnam, as well as a likely typhoon in Japan and not to mention Lane, I can only afford to spend a few minutes looking at this

[tolakram]

I don't comment much but I feel it warranted. It was disappointing earlier to see dismissive comments by a professional met concerning this seemingly insignificant system. Though I am fairly sure that no one here expects a named storm, please let me remind you that as small islands, we have no where to evacuate to. Further, most our lands are hilly and well watered making heavier than usual rainfall a nightmare with millions of dollars in losses. We just had a couple hours of ITCZ rainfall followed by normal wave rainfall on two consecutive days this week, and cleanup is still taking place across the country. My brother still has 4ft of water in his yard, with hundreds of thousands of dollars of loss for him alone. No need to patronize us. We just expect professional response with meaningful data on rainfall totals and wind values so we can prepare....

Well said, especially about the part of no where to evacuate - although I've known a few of us Barbadians (Bajans), with the time and means, to fly south to Trinidad when we get threatened. Barbados is only 21x14 miles and about 285,000 people (one of the most densely places in the world - 4th most densely populated country in the Americas, and 15th globally) and augmented by several thousand Tourists (from the USA, Canada, etc. - depending on the time of year) who if they cannot 'get out of dodge', have no where to evacuate to neither.

When these systems have had a go at us (in the Caribbean) and we then provide what DATA we get for whomever comes next, either the larger islands and then the usually the USA. Otherwise, we only have one or two ships (who are trying to get out of the way) and some buoys (which have been going offline in recent years) East of us in the 3,000 miles of MDR open ocean as its like to be called. Don't get me started on lack of Scatterometer Data.

I'm quoting both of you. I didn't see any dismissive comments, only reasoning for why. The pro mets are not required to comment on every disturbance, or to comment at all. I personally am not dismissing your concern, I can't imagine living on a small island in the path of a hurricane, but 'disappointment' directed at pro mets is just another form of unwarranted criticism in my opinion. Your source of information is the NHC and local weather services, not a pro met who volunteers here.