When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
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- CyclonicFury
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When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
Going to go with mid-September. September 11-20 range.
(Can someone please make a poll with August 21-31, September 1-10, September 11-20, September 21-30, October or later, and there will be no major hurricanes this season?)
(Can someone please make a poll with August 21-31, September 1-10, September 11-20, September 21-30, October or later, and there will be no major hurricanes this season?)
Last edited by Ntxw on Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Added Poll
Reason: Added Poll
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
Added poll and voted Sept 11-20
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
heh
voted none LOL!
voted none LOL!
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blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
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Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
I’m thinking September 1-10 seeing as even though the Atlantic is waking up, the rest of August will be sacrificial storms paving the way for peak season.
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I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a motel 8.
Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
Voted September 20-30 but I think it'll be more Sep 15-25 time frame.
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Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
went with Sept 1-10, but think the storm could form in late August and peak in early Sept.
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Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22
Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
None will take place. But y'all never know.
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- galaxy401
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Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
Sometime in early September. This should make the 2013 comparisons go away.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
September 15-ish, only major hurricane of the year and about the location where Lee 2017 and Michael 2012 became majors. Nontropical in origin.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
- Hurricaneman
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Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
My guess was September 1-10 but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a complete strike out for major hurricanes this year
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Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
Considering that it looks like no hurricane will form in August for the first time since 2013, and only the 9th time in recorded history, I’m thinking the the odds of a major forming at all this season are slim.
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Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
I went mid September. I'm kind of shocked by the number "none"...while a possible solution that's probably too bearish...it's likely we'll squeeze out at least one. We just had 2 during the 2015 super nino...the most notable of which was Joaquin.
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
psyclone wrote:I went mid September. I'm kind of shocked by the number "none"...while a possible solution that's probably too bearish...it's likely we'll squeeze out at least one. We just had 2 during the 2015 super nino...the most notable of which was Joaquin.
I agree 100%, the average first major hurricane does not form until a couple weeks from now. Seasons without a major hurricane are not common and most likely we will see at least one. September looks to be much more favorable than August. Any time someone calls for no majors, that is a VERY bearish forecast.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- AnnularCane
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Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
Sept 1-10. Maybe.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
I’m going to guess the first major this year will be with the current lemoned area sometime around early September
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Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
None at this point, if the waves continue coming off as far north as they've been.
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- NotSparta
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Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
14 said no majors.
yep, looks like peak of "season cancel" season
yep, looks like peak of "season cancel" season
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- StruThiO
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Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
consistently the best way to eat a plateful of crow
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Re: When will the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season form?
NotSparta wrote:14 said no majors.
yep, looks like peak of "season cancel" season
Some of the official forecasts include none in their range though, wasn't one of them between 0 and 1?
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