WPAC: CIMARON - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

91W INVEST 180814 1800 12.5N 168.0E WPAC 15 0



What an outbreak of activity in WPAC (though most of the systems are mediocre)

[1900hurricane]

Hard to keep all the systems straight at the moment, but guidance appears to be developing this one too a few days down the road, perhaps as the strongest of the recent swarm.

[euro6208]

JTWC upgrades to LOW.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.7N 167.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1315 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 142243Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS
THERE MAY BE AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE
WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING
CRITERIA LIKELY AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 167.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 163.0E, APPROXIMATELY
750 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 151506Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM AROUND THE
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4N 163.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY
691 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD TURNING WITH NO DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH.
A 160435Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE EMPHASIZES THAT THERE IS WEAK, SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH NO DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

The models are very optimistic about this one. ANother Japan hit...

[euro6208]

Next name for this will be the infamous Cimaron...

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 162156
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 16/2030Z

C. 13.0N

D. 158.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA.
SHEAR PATTERN WITH LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREE
FROM SMALL COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 170530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7N 158.9E TO 14.7N 152.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
170500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
158.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 162.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 158.3E, APPROXIMATELY
795NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 170240Z GMI 36GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SHALLOW BANDING
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. SST VALUES ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT 29C. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE
A WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180530Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

334
WWMY80 PGUM 170556
SPSMY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
356 PM ChST Fri Aug 17 2018

GUZ001>004-172300-
Guam-Rota-Tinian-Saipan-
356 PM ChST Fri Aug 17 2018

...DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTH OF POHNPEI...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI
AT 13N158E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE DISTURBANCE WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHERN
CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES TODAY. SHOWERY WEATHER AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE OVER PARTS OF THE MARIANA
ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.

RESIDENTS OF GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANAS
SHOULD KEEP INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICE.

$$

SIMPSON

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 170952
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 17/0830Z

C. 12.7N

D. 158.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. CLOSED CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED IMAGERY BUT ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS PULSING. DT OF 1.5 IS BASED ON CIRCULAR LL CLOUDS AND A
CENTER NEAR TO AN AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION MEASURING LT 1.5 DEG. MET
IS 1.0 AND PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 170912

A. SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (E OF GUAM)

B. 17/0850Z

C. 12.81N

D. 158.02E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


VEERKAMP

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Anything can change but the EURO brings this near Tokyo while GFS brings it over Shikoku yet again...

[euro6208]

Such a tough forecast for this one but mostly all models brings heavy rains to the area...

The main concern in the forecast can be boiled down to two weather
features. A circulation now east of 150E and the monsoon. The
circulation in question was located near 13N158E Friday afternoon.
It is the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert which means
that it may develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 12 to 24
hours. Current model track projections take the circulation north of
Saipan early next week. Even if the circulation follows this path
it will still have an influence on the local weather. Relatively dry
air cover the area and only expect isolated showers and thunderstorms
through Saturday night. As the circulation approaches the Marianas it
will begin enhancing the monsoon flow across the local area. This
will cause scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the area
starting Sunday. The scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will persist through Wednesday. As the circulation passes north of
Saipan showers could get heavy on Monday and Monday night. The
enhanced monsoon flow will also cause breezy wind conditions at times
Monday through Wednesday.

A circulation could be found east of Guam near 13N158E. This feature
is now the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert, which means
it could develop into a tropical cyclone within 12 to 24 hours. The
GFS, CMC, JMA, and NAVGEM models show that it may become a tropical
storm by Monday. ECMWF keep the circulation weak. Most of the models
agree taking the circulation towards the northern Marianas by Monday.
NAVGEM has it passing east of the Marianas. As with any developing
system this is still speculative and the system should be monitored.
A Special Weather Statement has been issued to address the situation.

As mentioned above, the models suggest an enhancement in monsoon
flow across the Marianas in association with the circulation also
mentioned above. This may lead to periods of heavy rain, especially
on Monday through Wednesday. Models give varying rainfall totals.
GFS predicts from now through Wednesday morning 6 to 10 inches. The
ECMWF is lower with totals around 5 inches. CMC model indicates 8 to
9 inches possible. With the ground near saturation from recent
heavy rains in combination with the heavy rainfall predicted, brief
flooding may be possible. Will wait for a few more model runs, but if
this heavy rain pattern persist in the models a Hydrologic Outlook
may be needed.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337
NM NORTH OF OROLUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A FLARING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE COVERING A CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CENTER POSITION IS FIXED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 171649Z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH
SHOWS A LOW REFLECTIVITY REGION AT LOW LEVELS UNDER THE CONVECTIVE
MASS, AND FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS, BELOW THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RJTD AND KNES
ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW FROM TY 22W TO THE NORTHWEST
IMPINGING ON CONVECTION, LEADING TO MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TD 23W FEATURES ONLY MARGINAL EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AT THIS TIME. SSTS ARE VERY WARM (28-30 CELSIUS), SUPPORTING
THE FLARING CONVECTION. TD 23W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR RIDGE CURRENTLY TO ITS NORTH, PASSING WELL
NORTH OF THE MARIANAS ISLANDS BY TAU 72. OUTFLOW FROM TY 22W TO ITS
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING NORTHERLY VWS INTO THE AREA AND
WILL SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF TD 23W. DUE TO THE SUSTAINED
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WIND RADII ARE FORECAST TO BE
EXPANSIVE AND SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC. THE HWRF MODEL TRACK IS THE
SOUTHERN OUTLIER, ALMOST 200 NM SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
WHILE THE ECMWF TRACK IS 115 NM AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AT TAU 72, DEPICTING A FASTER STORM MOTION. OTHERWISE, MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON STORM MOTION, WITH 140 NM OF SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, AND THE JTWC FORECAST
INTENSITY ALSO CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 23W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHWEST. BY TAU 96, A LONGWAVE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE AREA, ERODING THE STR. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES IN LATER TAUS,
DEPENDING ON THEIR DEPICTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH AND HOW
MUCH IT ERODES THE STEERING RIDGE, WITH 400 NM OF SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST SPREAD AT TAU 120. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS DO SHOW NORTHWEST
MOTION AND RELATIVELY CONSISTENT STORM MOTION. INTENSIFICATION AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE POSITION
OF TY 22W, AND IF TD 23W CAN TAP INTO THE JET TO IMPROVE ITS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AT THAT TIME. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 172125

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (E OF GUAM)

B. 17/2100Z

C. 13.44N

D. 154.93E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/1649Z 13.15N 155.78E SSMI
17/2006Z 13.63N 155.33E SSMS


ZOUFALY

[mrbagyo]

JMA is expecting a Tropical Storm out of this system within 24 hours.

TD
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 18 August 2018
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 18 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N13°20' (13.3°)
E154°35' (154.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 August>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N14°10' (14.2°)
E154°00' (154.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 19 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°25' (15.4°)
E152°55' (152.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)