CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

Eye is astonishingly clear.

[Kingarabian]

Have serious reservations over a recurve near Hawaii just due to the fact it'll be getting torn apart and not vertically deep to feel a 200mbar weakness. This wil likely pass well the south of the island group as a rapidly dissipating cyclone.

The shear forecast based on the Euro and GFS 200mb wind is pretty favorable if Lane tracks south of the big island. Even if there's modest shear, Lane will be strong enough to maintan an anti-cyclone and create favorable shear conditions. There's disagreements whether the TUTT over Hawaii lifts if the recurve happens though.

[Kingarabian]

200mb wind trend on the GFS shows Lane will likely walk a thin line between favorable shear and killer shear:

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS much closer to Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

On the brink of T5.5.

[Yellow Evan]

18/0000 UTC 11.7N 135.0W T6.0/6.0 LANE -- East Pacific

Mostly sure this is wrong but SSD floaters refuse to refresh so idk.

[Yellow Evan]

At first glance this is likely T5.5. SAB made a mistake here. Oh yeah and constraints limit us to T5.5.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah this isn't thick enough.

TXPZ25 KNES 180023
TCSENP

A. 14E (LANE)

B. 18/0000Z

C. 11.7N

D. 135.0W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN
B YIELDS A DT OF 6.0 AFTER 0.5 ADDED FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=5.5 AND
PT.6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[Alyono]

while there will be an upper trough in the vicinity of Hawaii, this looks to be only at the shearing level, not the steering level. So what is likely to happen is for Lane to be blasted apart, not steered into Hawaii

[DioBrando]

unrelated but I just literally noticed "kim" under the last post yellow evan put

lane kim...

gilmore girls anyone?

[cycloneye]

Up to Major Cane.

EP, 14, 2018081800, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1349W, 100, 969, HU

[Yellow Evan]

Given the thick B ring and my Dvorak number of T5.5, I'd go 105 knots.

[Kingarabian]

Up to Major Cane.

EP, 14, 2018081800, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1349W, 100, 969, HU

With this BT update, Lane is 24 hours ahead of the GFS intensity wise and will be well above its entire intensity forcast.

[Yellow Evan]

[ncapps]

while there will be an upper trough in the vicinity of Hawaii, this looks to be only at the shearing level, not the steering level. So what is likely to happen is for Lane to be blasted apart, not steered into Hawaii

How does this affect the precipitation output? This to me would be the biggest worry for Hawaii, take the models verbatim in that regard.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1030628588238921731

[cycloneye]

105 kts.

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Lane has continued to rapidly intensify during the past several
hours, with the eye gradually becoming better defined and the
central dense overcast surrounding the eye becoming larger.
Satellite intensity estimates have increased to a range of 100-115
kt, and based on this the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt
in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus technique.
The hurricane currently has good outflow in all directions and
there is a large area of outer banding, primarily in the
southeastern semicircle.

The first portion of the intensity forecast is a bit problematic.
With the exception of the HMON model, none of the intensity
guidance shows much additional strengthening. However, except for
the possibility of some dry air wrapping around the west side of
the central convection, there is no apparent reason why the current
rapid intensification should stop that quickly. The intensity
forecast will show 12 h more of rapid intensification, followed by
a period of little change from 12-48 h. This portion of the
intensity forecast lies above all of the guidance. After 48 h,
Lane should start to encounter westerly shear, which should
increase by the end of the forecast period and cause the cyclone to
steadily weaken. This portion of the intensity forecast lies near
or a little above the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is 280/14. Lane is forecast to move south of a
subtropical ridge in either a westward or west-northwestward
direction over the next 5 days, with some decrease in forward speed
by 72-120 h as the ridge weakens slightly. There is some spread in
the guidance by 120 h, with the GFS and the NAVGEM models on the
north side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF model and UKMET
Ensemble mean on the south side. As in the previous advisory,
little change was made to the forecast track which lies close to
the center of the guidance envelope and the consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 11.8N 135.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 12.2N 137.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 13.4N 142.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 13.9N 145.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 14.5N 149.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 15.0N 152.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 15.5N 156.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Alyono]

ummmm... did the research flight data make it into the models or something?

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 18.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 135.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.08.2018 0 11.7N 135.0W 954 87
1200UTC 18.08.2018 12 12.3N 138.1W 962 83
0000UTC 19.08.2018 24 12.8N 140.8W 967 75
1200UTC 19.08.2018 36 13.3N 143.2W 971 68
0000UTC 20.08.2018 48 13.7N 144.9W 967 71
1200UTC 20.08.2018 60 14.0N 146.5W 961 75
0000UTC 21.08.2018 72 14.2N 147.8W 963 70
1200UTC 21.08.2018 84 14.6N 149.1W 970 66
0000UTC 22.08.2018 96 15.1N 150.2W 973 65
1200UTC 22.08.2018 108 15.8N 151.5W 972 68
0000UTC 23.08.2018 120 16.6N 152.8W 969 68
1200UTC 23.08.2018 132 17.2N 154.3W 972 68
0000UTC 24.08.2018 144 17.6N 155.4W 974 65

[Kingarabian]

ummmm... did the research flight data make it into the models or something?

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 18.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 135.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.08.2018 0 11.7N 135.0W 954 87
1200UTC 18.08.2018 12 12.3N 138.1W 962 83
0000UTC 19.08.2018 24 12.8N 140.8W 967 75
1200UTC 19.08.2018 36 13.3N 143.2W 971 68
0000UTC 20.08.2018 48 13.7N 144.9W 967 71
1200UTC 20.08.2018 60 14.0N 146.5W 961 75
0000UTC 21.08.2018 72 14.2N 147.8W 963 70
1200UTC 21.08.2018 84 14.6N 149.1W 970 66
0000UTC 22.08.2018 96 15.1N 150.2W 973 65
1200UTC 22.08.2018 108 15.8N 151.5W 972 68
0000UTC 23.08.2018 120 16.6N 152.8W 969 68
1200UTC 23.08.2018 132 17.2N 154.3W 972 68
0000UTC 24.08.2018 144 17.6N 155.4W 974 65

00z GFS looks like a big island landfall....

[Alyono]

GFS has a landfall on the Big Island now