ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: ENSO Updates
Here's a graphic showing the ECMWF pressure forecasts for Darwin and Tahiti based on the 00z run. Although it looks like mostly positive SOI values are predicted, the 30-day average may only rise slowly due to positive values from July getting omitted from the average.
Source: weather.us
Source: weather.us
0 likes
Re: ENSO Updates
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1030472930218659842
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1030472934027079680
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1030472934027079680
2 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: ENSO Updates
WAcyclone wrote:Here's a graphic showing the ECMWF pressure forecasts for Darwin and Tahiti based on the 00z run. Although it looks like mostly positive SOI values are predicted, the 30-day average may only rise slowly due to positive values from July getting omitted from the average.
Source: weather.us
So in another words the SOI will end up in the neutral phase this month which is what ENSO is currently is and most likely stay through September.
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
NDG wrote:WAcyclone wrote:Here's a graphic showing the ECMWF pressure forecasts for Darwin and Tahiti based on the 00z run. Although it looks like mostly positive SOI values are predicted, the 30-day average may only rise slowly due to positive values from July getting omitted from the average.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/QMN6bU6g.png[mg]
Source: weather.us
So in another words the SOI will end up in the neutral phase this month which is what ENSO is currently is and most likely stay through September.
I would say ENSO is warm neutral at the sub surface while the atmosphere is trending towards an El Nino.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:WAcyclone wrote:Here's a graphic showing the ECMWF pressure forecasts for Darwin and Tahiti based on the 00z run. Although it looks like mostly positive SOI values are predicted, the 30-day average may only rise slowly due to positive values from July getting omitted from the average.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/QMN6bU6g.png[mg]
Source: weather.us
So in another words the SOI will end up in the neutral phase this month which is what ENSO is currently is and most likely stay through September.
I would say ENSO is warm neutral at the sub surface while the atmosphere is trending towards an El Nino.
I would say that that the atmosphere has been more warm neutral than dead on neutral, the fact that FL has had a very wet summer so far is a good proof of it which most times happens during El Ninos, the very high shear over the Caribbean during July is another testament which usually does not happen during cool neutral years. The current brief cool down or warming pause should make shear stay lower through September.
I have always believed that the atmosphere (weather patterns) controls the SSTs, not the other way around, IMO.
1 likes
Re: ENSO Updates
The buoys if they hold looks like a bump up come Monday. Kind of crazy the sloshing, wild swings from warm to cool and back to warm in some areas. Shows the variances involved with cold and warm eddies in different regions and how quickly it shifts. Not only with moving water, but also changing climo in a season of transition, in tenths of a degree..
3 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- StruThiO
- Category 3
- Posts: 821
- Age: 24
- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
- Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.
Re: ENSO Updates
0 likes
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 252
- Joined: Fri May 11, 2018 9:20 pm
Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:The buoys if they hold looks like a bump up come Monday. Kind of crazy the sloshing, wild swings from warm to cool and back to warm in some areas. Shows the variances involved with cold and warm eddies in different regions and how quickly it shifts. Not only with moving water, but also changing climo in a season of transition, in tenths of a degree..
Notable on that plot is the westerly winds anoms in the kelvin wave generation area.
0 likes
Re: ENSO Updates
Will be 0.4C at the update. All regions warmed
1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- South Texas Storms
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4032
- Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:Will be 0.4C at the update. All regions warmed
And that WWB over the region about a week ago really helped to warm up the subsurface waters too. Some 4+C anomalies are now showing up about 100-200m below 160W.
0 likes
Re: ENSO Updates
South Texas Storms wrote:Ntxw wrote:Will be 0.4C at the update. All regions warmed
And that WWB over the region about a week ago really helped to warm up the subsurface waters too. Some 4+C anomalies are now showing up about 100-200m below 160W.
The hovmollers forecasted trades have not been as strong in the closer range vs long range. What was decent EWB forecast turned out to be less. Another EWB is forecasted east of the dateline. We'll have to see if that comes to fruition.
1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- South Texas Storms
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4032
- Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:Ntxw wrote:Will be 0.4C at the update. All regions warmed
And that WWB over the region about a week ago really helped to warm up the subsurface waters too. Some 4+C anomalies are now showing up about 100-200m below 160W.
The hovmollers forecasted trades have not been as strong in the closer range vs long range. What was decent EWB forecast turned out to be less. Another EWB is forecasted east of the dateline. We'll have to see if that comes to fruition.
Yep I've noticed that as well. The background state continues to slowly shift towards El Nino.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C (All areas up including Niño 1+2)
CPC Weekly update has Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C and has all the areas in positive.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19182
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C (All areas up including Niño 1+2)
Anomaly slide from that PDF
3 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C (All areas up including Niño 1+2)
That 0.8C is about as good as it gets for a modoki at 4. It is essentially a dateline Nino considering. One of the strongest "dateline" forcing ninos of recent was 2009 late in the fall and winter.
4 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C (All areas up including Niño 1+2)
1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C (All areas up including Niño 1+2)
Posted this in the Lane thread but perhaps might be of value here also. North of the equator in the NHEM rising motion and convection in the Central and Eastern tropical Pacific is putting on a show. Considering discussions of the walker circulation of where convection this time of year in a non +ENSO is usually devoid of due to SSTs below 28C to sustain.
1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates
@MJVentrice
Another strong downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave has developed in the central Pacific. This downwelling phase is of higher amplitude of its predecessor back in Feb-Mar, which transitioned the Pacific out of La Nina.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1032283755879247872
Another strong downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave has developed in the central Pacific. This downwelling phase is of higher amplitude of its predecessor back in Feb-Mar, which transitioned the Pacific out of La Nina.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1032283755879247872
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates
@MJVentrice
The Pacific Ocean is in a loading state... The thermocline is deepening in the central Pacific via the development of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. SSTAs +4C are seen just east of the Date Line, sub-surface. This warmth will push eastward with time (Kelvin wave dynamics).
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1032792625760354304
The Pacific Ocean is in a loading state... The thermocline is deepening in the central Pacific via the development of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. SSTAs +4C are seen just east of the Date Line, sub-surface. This warmth will push eastward with time (Kelvin wave dynamics).
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1032792625760354304
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
South Texas Storms called it. Lane has stunted the easterlies over the dateline and the CPAC.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Emmett_Brown, Google Adsense [Bot], Hurricane2022, Hurricaneman, Javlin, jgh, LarryWx, riapal, StormWeather and 100 guests