CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

18/2330 UTC 12.6N 140.3W T5.0/6.0 LANE -- Central Pacific

[Kingarabian]

BT down to 110kts.

[Alyono]

most models now agreeing on a reduction of shear starting in about 48 hours. EC takes this down into the low 970 mb range as it passes south of the Big Island

[ncapps]

most models now agreeing on a reduction of shear starting in about 48 hours. EC takes this down into the low 970 mb range as it passes south of the Big Island

Not good I'm guessing heads more NW after passing BI?

[Yellow Evan]

I hope my professors are this lenient with grading as the NHC is with Lane tonight.

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LANE EP142018 08/19/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 115 110 103 97 94 87 80 74 74 72 69 69 68
V (KT) LAND 115 110 103 97 94 87 80 74 74 72 69 69 68
V (KT) LGEM 115 109 102 95 90 84 80 78 76 74 70 67 63
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 13 8 11 13 7 4 11 6 8 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 -1 5 2 4 -1 2
SHEAR DIR 286 284 279 284 281 304 290 257 285 270 282 265 260
SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.3
POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 140 141 143 141 140 141 141 139 136 136
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 59 62 62 63 63 61 57 58 61 63 64 66 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 16 16 18 19 19 20 21 23 22 23 21
850 MB ENV VOR -15 -7 -5 7 18 28 32 38 41 45 58 62 50
200 MB DIV 58 77 23 23 24 24 65 42 55 24 56 57 90
700-850 TADV -6 -8 -4 -2 0 0 0 1 4 7 8 6 5
LAND (KM) 1728 1602 1477 1368 1260 1070 907 776 642 521 422 418 468
LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.2
LONG(DEG W) 140.3 141.5 142.6 143.7 144.7 146.7 148.5 150.3 152.1 153.9 155.7 157.5 159.1
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 12 14 22 20 17 23 17 17 19 32 28 17 26

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -19. -28. -36. -41. -46. -49. -49.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -10. -11. -10. -5. 0. 4. 6. 6. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19.
PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 3. 5. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -18. -21. -28. -35. -41. -41. -43. -46. -46. -47.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 12.6 140.3

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.31 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 470.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.31 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Kingarabian]

most models now agreeing on a reduction of shear starting in about 48 hours. EC takes this down into the low 970 mb range as it passes south of the Big Island

With these scenarios, this could end up different than Hilda at this point.

[Alyono]

most models now agreeing on a reduction of shear starting in about 48 hours. EC takes this down into the low 970 mb range as it passes south of the Big Island

With these scenarios, this could end up different than Hilda at this point.

yeah, Hilda not looking likely at this point

I still favor a safe miss though. GFS is moving this too slow

[NotSparta]

most models now agreeing on a reduction of shear starting in about 48 hours. EC takes this down into the low 970 mb range as it passes south of the Big Island

With these scenarios, this could end up different than Hilda at this point.

yeah, Hilda not looking likely at this point

I still favor a safe miss though. GFS is moving this too slow

And plows Lane into a ridge

[Alyono]

With these scenarios, this could end up different than Hilda at this point.

yeah, Hilda not looking likely at this point

I still favor a safe miss though. GFS is moving this too slow

And plows Lane into a ridge

will NCEP EVER fix that problem with the GFS? It's been an issue for about 15 years!

[ncapps]

yeah, Hilda not looking likely at this point

I still favor a safe miss though. GFS is moving this too slow

And plows Lane into a ridge

will NCEP EVER fix that problem with the GFS? It's been an issue for about 15 years!

FV-3 GFS is the fix

[Alyono]

And plows Lane into a ridge

will NCEP EVER fix that problem with the GFS? It's been an issue for about 15 years!

FV-3 GFS is the fix

and it has its own issues

[ncapps]

will NCEP EVER fix that problem with the GFS? It's been an issue for about 15 years!

FV-3 GFS is the fix

and it has its own issues

It's been extremely consistent, track wise with Lane. Similar to Euro.

GFS has been horrible.

[Kingarabian]

most models now agreeing on a reduction of shear starting in about 48 hours. EC takes this down into the low 970 mb range as it passes south of the Big Island

With these scenarios, this could end up different than Hilda at this point.

yeah, Hilda not looking likely at this point

I still favor a safe miss though. GFS is moving this too slow

Models are in good agreement through the next 48 hours, when can we start matching Lanes speed with the GFSs?

[Alyono]

If Lane is 115 kts tonight, I'm the president of Indonesia

[DioBrando]

If Lane is 115 kts tonight, I'm the president of Indonesia

heh

more like son goku for me tbh

and make that 110 kts LOL!

[Yellow Evan]

If Lane is 115 kts tonight, I'm the president of Indonesia

LANE HAS CROSSED INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AS A CATAGORY 4 HURRICANE
500 PM HST Sat Aug 18 2018
Location: 12.8N 141.0W
Maximum sustained winds: 130 MPH
Moving: W at 16 MPH
Minimum pressure: 952 MB

Congrats on your election!

[Alyono]

If Lane is 115 kts tonight, I'm the president of Indonesia

LANE HAS CROSSED INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AS A CATAGORY 4 HURRICANE
500 PM HST Sat Aug 18 2018
Location: 12.8N 141.0W
Maximum sustained winds: 130 MPH
Moving: W at 16 MPH
Minimum pressure: 952 MB

Congrats on your election!

I promise to help the little guy!

Seriously, I doubt this is even the 105 kts I went with

[Yellow Evan]

My god their Dvoraking...

TXPN41 PHFO 190007
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2354 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018

A. HURRICANE LANE EP142018.

B. 18/2330Z.

C. 12.6N.

D. 140.4W.

E. GOES-W.

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS.

G. VIS/IR/EIR.

H. Remarks: LG EYE EMBEDDED IN B WITH A WHITE RING YIELDS A DT OF 5.5. MET IS 6.5 AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET AND PT DUE TO UNREPRESENTATIVE DT. CLOUD COVERING OVER EYE IS ONLY SHORT TERM SO FAR AND NOT YET REPRESENTATIVE OF WEAKENING.

I. ADDL POSITIONS NONE.

$$

TS.

[Yellow Evan]

JTWC fix might be worse. Eye hasn't been OW in like 8 hours.

TPPZ01 PGTW 190044

A. HURRICANE 14E (LANE)

B. 19/0000Z

C. 12.58N

D. 140.34W

E. ONE/GOES15

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B E OF 5.5
+5 EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS DT 6.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DARLOW

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Sat Aug 18 2018

Lane's satellite presentation has degraded a bit over the past few
hours, with the eye clouding over and cooling. The central
convective ring has become a bit asymmetric, becoming elongated
east-to west roughly along the axis of 15 to 18 kt vertical shear.
Outflow seems more favorable now to the east-northeast than 6 to 12
hours ago. Nevertheless, Lane remains a powerful hurricane, with
objective Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers between 6.0/115 kt
(JTWC/SAB) and 6.5/127 kt (PHFO). ADT from UW-CIMSS is weaker at
5.0/105 kt. The initial intensity is set at 115 kt for this
advisory, based on a mix of these estimates.

Lane continues moving toward the west-northwest at about 14 kt,
representing a slight increase in forward speed. This system
should continue on this track through 24 hours, driven by a large
subtropical ridge to its north. As the ridge builds westward, Lane
should shift to a more westerly track from 24 through 72 hours. A
shift back toward the west-northwest should occur from 96 through
120 hours as Lane approaches the western portion of the ridge.
Track guidance remains rather tight, depicting a gradual decrease
in forward speed through the forecast period. The first few
forecast points were pushed forward slightly to account for the
small bump in initial forward speed, but the overall forecast track
closely resembles the previous one, neatly following TVCE consensus.

The intensity forecast roughly follows IVCN consensus guidance,
depicting a gradual weakening through 120 hours. SSTs will remain
in the 27 to 28 degree C range, but with 10 to 15 kt of vertical
shear expected through the forecast period, a forecast for gradual
weakening seems sound.

Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands
Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it
tracks west northwestward. Interests in those islands should watch
the progress of Lane closely, since day 4 and 5 forecast track
errors can be large.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 12.8N 141.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 13.2N 143.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 13.5N 145.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 13.7N 147.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 13.9N 148.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 14.2N 152.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 15.0N 155.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 16.2N 159.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Powell