https://imgur.com/0iKQqo8
Banding appeared fragmented on avn
WPAC: SOULIK - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: SOULIK - Typhoon
Not sure how JTWC arrives at a T6.0 at 2030Z. The surrounding shade is not LG and there is no banding feature, so the DT is likely 1.5T too high.
Intensity has probably plateaued right now due to significant dry air entrainment.
Intensity has probably plateaued right now due to significant dry air entrainment.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: SOULIK - Typhoon
Back down to a Cat 2.
22W SOULIK 180819 0000 25.1N 139.1E WPAC 95 951
22W SOULIK 180819 0000 25.1N 139.1E WPAC 95 951
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: SOULIK - Typhoon
JTWC kept it at 100 knots Cat 3.
WDPN35 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON AN APPROXIMATELY 25 MILE EYE IN ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE EIR IMAGERY SHOWS WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DIMINISHING
DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS
BASED ON THE DIMINISHING CONVECTION, THE RJTD CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE T5.5 (102 KTS), AND A RECENT 182132Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 88
KTS. THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) HAS CUT OFF TY 22W FROM
THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE EAST THAT HAD BEEN FUELING A ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND INTENSIFICATION. THE REDUCED OUTFLOW
ALONG WITH TY 22W MOVING INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, 26-27 CELSIUS, HAS LED TO WEAKENING SOONER THAN
ANTICIPATED, DESPITE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS). TY 22W HAS
ACCELERATED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE REBUILDING STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR IS RE-BUILDING BECAUSE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT
HAD DISRUPTED THE STR IS MOVING EAST, OUT OF THE AREA. TY 22W
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AFTER ITS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WAS TERMINATED.
IT IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TO 95 KTS BY TAU 12, THEN MAINTAIN
THAT INTENSITY UNTIL AFTER TAU 48, WHEN IT WILL RESUME WEAKENING.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH. THE SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS IS 145 NM AT
TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO AGREE
WITH THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND REFLECT THE WEAKENING TREND.
THROUGH TAU 72, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS MODERATE
BASED ON THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
C. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96, A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW TY 22W TO RECURVE. AT THIS POINT, TRACK
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE
AND THE TRACK SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
MOST RECENT MODEL RUN, CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS,
WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SOUTHWEST OF CONSENSUS. THE ECMWF AND
NAVGEM SOLUTION HAVE CONSISTENTLY RECURVED 22W FURTHER WEST AND
LATER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. OUTFLOW WILL BE TEMPORARILY ENHANCED AS
22W TAPS INTO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INCREASING VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TY 22W BEYOND TAU 72, AS
TY 22W IS NOW FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA
BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AROUND TAU 96 AS 22W INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE, ALTHOUGH AS 22W IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK OVER LAND
AT TAU 120 INSTEAD OF OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN, AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO
IS POSSIBLE WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER LAND. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK IS LOW FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE.//
NNNN
WDPN35 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON AN APPROXIMATELY 25 MILE EYE IN ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE EIR IMAGERY SHOWS WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DIMINISHING
DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS
BASED ON THE DIMINISHING CONVECTION, THE RJTD CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE T5.5 (102 KTS), AND A RECENT 182132Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 88
KTS. THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) HAS CUT OFF TY 22W FROM
THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE EAST THAT HAD BEEN FUELING A ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND INTENSIFICATION. THE REDUCED OUTFLOW
ALONG WITH TY 22W MOVING INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, 26-27 CELSIUS, HAS LED TO WEAKENING SOONER THAN
ANTICIPATED, DESPITE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS). TY 22W HAS
ACCELERATED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE REBUILDING STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR IS RE-BUILDING BECAUSE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT
HAD DISRUPTED THE STR IS MOVING EAST, OUT OF THE AREA. TY 22W
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AFTER ITS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WAS TERMINATED.
IT IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TO 95 KTS BY TAU 12, THEN MAINTAIN
THAT INTENSITY UNTIL AFTER TAU 48, WHEN IT WILL RESUME WEAKENING.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH. THE SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS IS 145 NM AT
TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO AGREE
WITH THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND REFLECT THE WEAKENING TREND.
THROUGH TAU 72, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS MODERATE
BASED ON THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
C. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96, A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW TY 22W TO RECURVE. AT THIS POINT, TRACK
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE
AND THE TRACK SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
MOST RECENT MODEL RUN, CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS,
WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SOUTHWEST OF CONSENSUS. THE ECMWF AND
NAVGEM SOLUTION HAVE CONSISTENTLY RECURVED 22W FURTHER WEST AND
LATER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. OUTFLOW WILL BE TEMPORARILY ENHANCED AS
22W TAPS INTO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INCREASING VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TY 22W BEYOND TAU 72, AS
TY 22W IS NOW FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA
BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AROUND TAU 96 AS 22W INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE, ALTHOUGH AS 22W IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK OVER LAND
AT TAU 120 INSTEAD OF OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN, AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO
IS POSSIBLE WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER LAND. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK IS LOW FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE.//
NNNN
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
Twisted-core
Re: WPAC: SOULIK - Typhoon
@ 0400z the micro did have a concentric eyewalls look to it.Fallan in since then.
https://imgur.com/foAK4tD
https://imgur.com/foAK4tD
1 likes
Re: WPAC: SOULIK - Typhoon
WDPN35 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM WEST OF IWO
TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
AN APPROXIMATELY 25 NM WIDE EYE IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 190527Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE AND LESS
DEEP CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0-T6.0 (90-
115 KTS) AND A 190036Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 94 KTS. LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29-30
CELSIUS) ARE BEING OFFSET BY SUBSIDING, DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE
WEST THAT IS INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION. TY 22W IS BEING STEERED BY
A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR TO THE NORTH IS GRADUALLY BUILDING. AS IT DOES, THE
TRACK WILL BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE TO AROUND 10 KTS
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TY 22W WILL BEGIN TRACKING MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 95 KTS BEFORE
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 100 KTS BY TAU 36. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HWRF AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE
SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS IS LESS THAN 100 NM THROUGH TAU 48 BUT
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARD DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STR AMONG THE MODELS. THROUGH TAU
72, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW, PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 48.
C. BY TAU 96, 22W WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS, TRACK NORTHEASTWARD,
AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TRACK UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD
BUT THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT BETWEEN MODEL RUNS AND THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION, HOWEVER, THERE
IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW RAPIDLY IT WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE MINOR
SHIFTS IN THE TRACK CAN CAUSE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF
LAND INTERACTION. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW DUE
TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE.//
NNNN
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: SOULIK - Typhoon
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: SOULIK - Typhoon
[youtube]https://youtu.be/sgF_acRNjvQ[/youtube]
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: SOULIK - Typhoon
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: SOULIK - Typhoon
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6059
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: SOULIK - Typhoon
That's a big eye emerging. I'm curious to see some of the obs with this one once it gets closer to land since this structure isn't exactly common.
2 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
-
mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3711
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: SOULIK - Typhoon
Inner Eyewall seems to be gone..
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: SOULIK - Typhoon
WDPN35 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 599 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON AN APPROXIMATELY 40 NM WIDE RAGGED EYE IN ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE EIR IMAGERY AND 191755Z SSMI
85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEPENING CONVECTION THAT IS DISPLACED
FROM THE CENTER IN A WIDE BUT INCOMPLETE RING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5-T5.5 (77-102 KTS), AND AGREES
WITH A 191625 SATCON ESTIMATE OF 95 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (27-29 CELSIUS) BUT DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST
AND THE WIDE EYE ARE PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION. TY 22W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.
AFTER TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TURNING NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE STR AXIS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48 (70 NM OF SPREAD) BUT THE SPREAD INCREASES TO 225 NM BY TAU
72 AS THE MODELS HANDLE THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF TURNING AS 22W
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS WHICH PREDICTS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 24-48 AS
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IMPROVES POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
TRACK FORECAST HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY AND TY 22W IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE KOREAN LANDFALL AROUND TAU 72. BY TAU 72,
INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO START A RAPID
WEAKENING TREND. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD BEYOND
TAU 48 DURING THE RECURVE PROCESS.
C. TY 22W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 72 AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
WHICH HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 25 KTS BY TAU 120 DUE TO HIGH VWS
AND LAND INTERACTION, ALSO BECOMING FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 120.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK AS THE CYCLONE RECURVES AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.//
NNNN
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6059
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: SOULIK - Typhoon
0 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
-
Twisted-core
Re: WPAC: SOULIK - Typhoon
1 likes
-
Dylan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 337
- Age: 30
- Joined: Mon May 31, 2010 9:50 am
- Location: New Orleans, LA
Re: WPAC: SOULIK - Typhoon
0 likes
Georges('98), Allison('01), Isidore('02), Lili('02), Frances('04) Ivan('04), Cindy('05), Katrina('05), Rita('05), Gustav('08), Isaac('12), Matthew('16), Harvey('17), Irma('17), Nate ('17), Ida ('21).
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 74 guests