CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#561 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:41 pm

Alyono wrote:some models are not showing the shear increasing until Thursday or Friday. Not sure I agree with weakening starting tomorrow

then again, my forecasts have been at such a low level with this I deserve a good old fashioned Singapore caning for my performance!


They're basically Hector-ing Lane with its intensity.

Only problem this time around is that the steering is not clear cut as it was with Hector which had a stout ridge remain in place. So intensity low balling can affect the track.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#562 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:42 pm

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18z GFs so far through 18 hours a little north not that it matters much.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#563 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:45 pm

18z GFS through 24 hours:

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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#564 Postby ncapps » Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:47 pm

Just kinda sit out there on the GFS...
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#565 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:50 pm

NO chance this GFS misses the Big Island

As long as this doesn't strike Kona directly, hitting the Big Island is the best island to hit if the islands have to be hit
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#566 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:51 pm

Alyono wrote:NO chance this GFS misses the Big Island


It's more east just like the 12z Navy.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#567 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:52 pm

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Through 54 hours and already starting to turn. So much for models shifting west.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#568 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:52 pm

18z GFS wasting no time towards a Big Island hit:

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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#569 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:55 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:[img]https://i.imgur.com/pRDsNtX.png[img]

Through 54 hours and already starting to turn. So much for models shifting west.


I'm holding hope that due to Lane's intensity being underestimated by the models, it feels the trough sooner and misses east of the Big Island.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#570 Postby ncapps » Mon Aug 20, 2018 4:57 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:[img]https://i.imgur.com/pRDsNtX.png[img]

Through 54 hours and already starting to turn. So much for models shifting west.


I'm holding hope that due to Lane's intensity being underestimated by the models, it feels the trough sooner and misses east of the Big Island.


As in travels NE of islands? I wish.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#571 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:04 pm

Potentially a Cat.2 landfall:

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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#572 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:06 pm

Only good news is, that is south of heavily populated kona, and Kona would have an offshore flow
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#573 Postby ncapps » Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:06 pm

My gosh the GFS has really dug in with this solution for a couple days now. Not good.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#574 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:12 pm

A big player might actually be the inverted ridge axis that builds in behind Lane. The stronger that is, the more northward tug Lane will feel. It's a fairly subtle but influential feature that guidance is picking up a little better as time grows closer.

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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#575 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:13 pm

given how poorly GFS initialized this, that may be a 3 or a 4 into the Big Island
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#576 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:19 pm

Alyono wrote:given how poorly GFS initialized this, that may be a 3 or a 4 into the Big Island


YUP.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#577 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:20 pm

Alyono wrote:given how poorly GFS initialized this, that may be a 3 or a 4 into the Big Island

This is almost worst case scenario
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#578 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:20 pm

1900hurricane wrote:A big player might actually be the inverted ridge axis that builds in behind Lane. The stronger that is, the more northward tug Lane will feel. It's a fairly subtle but influential feature that guidance is picking up a little better as time grows closer.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/9snJZP1.gif[img]


Thank you for pointing this out, I've been noticing this feature. I'm also going to assume that the a deeper Lane would feel this feature more than advertised.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#579 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:21 pm

ncapps wrote:My gosh the GFS has really dug in with this solution for a couple days now. Not good.


It was the first to call for a north track solution when the Euro and UKMET were showing a south track away from Hawaii.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#580 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:26 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
Alyono wrote:given how poorly GFS initialized this, that may be a 3 or a 4 into the Big Island

This is almost worst case scenario


much better hitting Ocean View on the Big Island than Kona, or even worse, carrying that intensity into Oahu
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