CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[BYG Jacob]

That came out wrong

[Kingarabian]

18z HMON grazes the big island, but looks like Kailua-Kona may get Cat.1 conditions:



This also based on the notion that shear will actually be there to weaken Lane.

[johngaltfla]

HMON is a hit for populated Kona area of BI. Maybe as Cat 2.

So much for my uncle's house on the water. This will not end well if this track holds.

[BYG Jacob]

18Z GFS 0 - 114 hours.

[im g]https://i.imgur.com/E3tpaBq.gif[/img]

GFS hates Hawaii apparently

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF stronger and much closer to the big island too:

[Camerooski]

18z HWRF sure is scary to look at. BTW the models are actually hinting at a possible northern outflow boundary that will aid Lane as it makes the northerly turn, unreal.

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF sure is scary to look at. BTW the models are actually hinting at a possible northern outflow boundary that will aid Lane as it makes the northerly turn, unreal.

Possibly keeping the strongest winds north, thus a better chance for those winds to reach the islands.

[Kingarabian]

Lane's eye continues to warm:

[ncapps]

Not even sure Kauai and Ohau are affected in these scenarios besides passing showers and high surf...

[Kingarabian]

18z FV3-GFS says that Lane will move north towards Oahu, stop, and get sheared to death:

[Kingarabian]

18z GEFS mean, shifts more east, center closer to the islands:

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a Cat.1 Maui landfall on the 18z HWRF. That's a big difference than its past 2 runs and showing much less shear over the system.

[Kingarabian]

Mark Suddeth (Hurricanetrack) might be coming to Hawaii in the next couple of days

[Kingarabian]

Healthy major hurricane. This AMSR2 pass shows that a possible ERC will possibly start soon:

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like a Cat.1 Maui landfall on the 18z HWRF. That's a big difference than its past 2 runs and showing much less shear over the system.

Getting real close to the panic button

[Ntxw]

Lane's eye is warming. Wouldn't be too surprised if next plane finds a stronger storm

[Yellow Evan]

Not too sure about that.

TXPN41 PHFO 202356
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2355 UTC MON AUG 20 2018

A. HURRICANE LANE EP142018.

B. 20/2330Z.

C. 13.7N.

D. 149.6W.

E. GOES-W.

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS.

G. IR/EIR.

H. Remarks: EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE AND B MEETING THE NARROWEST WIDTH REQUIREMENT YIELDING EYE NUMBER OF 6.0. A B RING ADDS 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDING A DT OF 6.0. PT AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS NONE.

$$

TS.

[Yellow Evan]

JTWC fix is spot on for a change.

TPPZ01 PGTW 210010 COR

A. HURRICANE 14E (LANE)

B. 20/2331Z

C. 13.80N

D. 149.66W

E. THREE/GOES15

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. COR DUE TO INTENSITY
CORRECTION IN LINE F.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN24 KNES 202354
TCSCNP

A. 14E (LANE)

B. 20/2330Z

C. 13.8N

D. 149.7W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY B RESULTING IN
A DT OF 5.5 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE ALSO
5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Blown Away]

TVCN & EPS consistently remain a few hundred miles offshore... Seems like a close brush ATM...