CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF and the ensemble mean though shifted east earlier are still west of the islands. That is about as close as it gets which is still quite a bit west and that is a day 4 forecast so not that far out:

[Ntxw]

Broad view of EPAC+CPAC

[Kingarabian]

Lane's eye is warming. Wouldn't be too surprised if next plane finds a stronger storm

[img]https://images2.imgbox.com/d8/8c/m1KO1blC_o.gif[img]

[img]https://images2.imgbox.com/d1/a1/zVBeyXgc_o.jpg[img]

It's currently moving into an area of deeper warm waters, higher OHC, and a less stable environment. These three factors will help Lane to continue intensify. The only negating factor is shear. But with what appears to be an anti-cyclone following Lane, it'll take substantially more shear than currently analyzed to disrupt Lane's intensification process.



This gif shows how Lane has been able to continue to create a favorable upper level environment despite the models showing that it will weaken from un favorable shear.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET is also west of the GFS and closer to the ECMWF track:

[Kingarabian]

The ECMWF and the ensemble mean though shifted east earlier are still west of the islands. That is about as close as it gets which is still quite a bit west and that is a day 4 forecast so not that far out:

[img]https://s8.postimg.cc/7gczyo151/ecmwf_z500_mslp_cpac_5.png[img]

Unless the upcoming 00z GFS run flips completely, and shows a track west of the islands, the current trend continues to favor the Euro shifting east.

The bend back to the west on your posted Euro and UK runs is due to shear breaking up the system and making it shallow thus caught up with the low level flow.

[gatorcane]

The CMC is also similar to the ECMWF and west of the islands. Besides the GFS (and HWRF which is based on the GFS) what other model threatens Hawaii?

[Yellow Evan]

The CMC is also similar to the ECMWF and west of the islands. Besides the GFS (and HWRF which is based on the GFS) what other model threatens Hawaii?

The issue is that the ECMWF and UKMET have gradually been trended eastward and basically show what the GFS was showing 2-3 days ago. They've both been underestimating the intensity of this as well.

[Kingarabian]

The CMC is also similar to the ECMWF and west of the islands. Besides the GFS (and HWRF which is based on the GFS) what other model threatens Hawaii?

Well of course if someone decides to track Lane right now, the model solutions will not imply a threat to Hawaii. However if you take a look at the trend here, there's a great cause for concern:

[Kingarabian]

The CMC is also similar to the ECMWF and west of the islands. Besides the GFS (and HWRF which is based on the GFS) what other model threatens Hawaii?

The issue is that the ECMWF and UKMET have gradually been trended eastward and basically show what the GFS was showing 2-3 days ago. They've both been underestimating the intensity of this as well.

This right here.

[Alyono]

The CMC is also similar to the ECMWF and west of the islands. Besides the GFS (and HWRF which is based on the GFS) what other model threatens Hawaii?

the UKMET, JMA, and NAVGEM

[gatorcane]

The CMC is also similar to the ECMWF and west of the islands. Besides the GFS (and HWRF which is based on the GFS) what other model threatens Hawaii?

Well of course if someone decides to track Lane right now, the model solutions will not imply a threat to Hawaii. However if you take a look at the trend here, there's a great cause for concern:

https://i.imgur.com/Asj88nM.gif

Yes that does raise an eyebrow. But the east shifts may be done, we will see how the guidance does tonight. The other thing is the TUTT will be around should it go the way of the GFS. Questions remain on how far south or north that TUTT will be. Good test for the FV3 GFS. It thinks the TUTT will rip it apart. Tough to get a significant landfalling hurricane in Hawaii, takes a near perfect setup. Let’s see if this is that time or not.

[cycloneye]

Great video by Levi Cowan where he discusses all about Lane and the Hawaii impacts.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... -possible/

[Twisted-core]

Icon suggests with the lowering heights ridge retrogrades from the trough and almost u turns the cyclone before the ridge builds back in.

https://imgur.com/tKbRRdR


https://imgur.com/w8uAkMb

[Yellow Evan]

The CMC is also similar to the ECMWF and west of the islands. Besides the GFS (and HWRF which is based on the GFS) what other model threatens Hawaii?

Well of course if someone decides to track Lane right now, the model solutions will not imply a threat to Hawaii. However if you take a look at the trend here, there's a great cause for concern:

https://i.imgur.com/Asj88nM.gif

Yes that does raise an eyebrow. But the east shifts may be done, we will see how the guidance does tonight. The other thing is the TUTT will be around should it go the way of the GFS. Questions remain on how far south or north that TUTT will be. Good test for the FV3 GFS. It thinks the TUTT will rip it apart. Thought to get a significant lamdfalling hurricane in Hawaii. Takes a near perfect setup. Let’s see if this is that time or not.

The models were previously showing this a while back falling apart due to the TUTT today, so the idea of increasing shear as a whole has kept getting pushed back. This isn't a done deal for a major hurricane landfall by any means thank goodness but at this point, I expect something somewhat similar to what the UKMET shows (a brush), which is further east than the ECMWF at best.

[1900hurricane]

Based on the 18Z GFS, by 00Z Thursday, steering currents will become very weak in the vicinity of Lane. However, this is about when it switched to a primarily poleward component. This appears to be about the time Lane begins the turn.

[SconnieCane]

Lane says "Shear? What shear?" Rolling across 150W just shy of 14N and beginning to assume the look of a high-end major.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The CMC is also similar to the ECMWF and west of the islands. Besides the GFS (and HWRF which is based on the GFS) what other model threatens Hawaii?

Well of course if someone decides to track Lane right now, the model solutions will not imply a threat to Hawaii. However if you take a look at the trend here, there's a great cause for concern:

The ECMWF has done a poor job with Lane; was always too weak, too far south.

[1900hurricane]

Here's some of the 500 mb features across the north Pacific by 12Z Thursday according to the 18Z GFS. The main players to me appear to be the subtle features closest to Lane at the time, but the amplifying mid-latitude pattern due to dual recurving typhoons is also playing a part. I also drew in a hypothetical steering flow region in the vicinity of Lane based on these features, just to try and visualize what all is going on.

[Ntxw]

[Kingarabian]