CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Blown Away]

What a rare event unfolding with a possible hurricane near the East/Central Hawaiian chain...

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:

I keep having to bring up your old post in this thread . Those words who knew then meant a possible Hawaii threat.

What am I looking at?

It's not much right now, but some of the meanest and baddest hurricanes originated as open swirls that gradually built convection.

Was an unimpressive swirl back then.



Mean and bad now swirl now.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow:

I keep having to bring up your old post in this thread . Those words who knew then meant a possible Hawaii threat.

What am I looking at?

It's not much right now, but some of the meanest and baddest hurricanes originated as open swirls that gradually built convection.

Was an unimpressive swirl back then.

[img]http://i64.tinypic.com/kalguw.jpg[img]

Mean and bad swirl now.

[img]https://images2.imgbox.com/b2/79/eQcFCww8_o.gif[img]

LOL, I wish I didn't say it with such confidence. Just an amateur speaking on acquired Storm2k experience, and now it's coming towards me.

[cjrciadt]

ADT going Vertical! What does everyone expect when Recon arrives in 2 hrs?
125knots is my guess

[1900hurricane]

Probably a similar intensity (110-115 kt is my guess), but with a more representative deeper pressure.

[Ntxw]

ADT going Vertical! What does everyone expect when Recon arrives in 2 hrs?
125knots is my guess

Going with 130kts as fun guess

[CrazyC83]

Do we have any members in Hawaii? Should we have a preps/obs thread?

[ncapps]

Do we have any members in Hawaii? Should we have a preps/obs thread?

I was supposed to fly down for a week in Kauai on Friday. I'll be cancelling most likely.

[Kingarabian]

Do we have any members in Hawaii? Should we have a preps/obs thread?

I Live in Honolulu. You can go ahead and make one. I might also make a thread for prep advice.

[Chris90]

ADT going Vertical! What does everyone expect when Recon arrives in 2 hrs?
125knots is my guess

Considering his improvement on satellite combined with a SSMI pass from a little over an hour ago, I'm going to be bullish and guess they find SFMR winds in the ballpark of 135kts (133-137 range). It looked like he was going through an eyewall replacement a few hours ago with an ASMR2 pass, but that SSMI pass suggests it is done or very close to finishing.

[Kingarabian]

ADT going Vertical! What does everyone expect when Recon arrives in 2 hrs?
125knots is my guess

Considering his improvement on satellite combined with a SSMI pass from a little over an hour ago, I'm going to be bullish and guess they find SFMR winds in the ballpark of 135kts (133-137 range). It looked like he was going through an eyewall replacement a few hours ago with an ASMR2 pass, but that SSMI pass suggests it is done or very close to finishing.

Wow that was quick!



In 2 hours by the time recon gets to the center, the winds (hopefully) should be caught up.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 25...Corrected
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Mon Aug 20 2018

Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows an impressive,
distinct eye on Hurricane Lane, though the convection surrounding
the core looks more ragged on the last few infrared images. A 2258Z
AMSR2 pass indicated that Lane had a concentric eyewall structure.
Satellite intensity estimates ranged from 5.5 from SAB and JTWC to
6.0 from PHFO. CIMSS ADT had 5.5 at 0000Z but has since risen to
6.0. Based on these estimates and the earlier reconnaisance data,
we have maintained a 115 kt intensity for this advisory. Another
aircraft reconnaisance mission will investigate Lane this evening.

The initial motion estimate continues to be 280/10. A subtropical
ridge to the north of Lane continues to steer the system westward.
However, changes in the steering pattern are expected relatively
soon, as the ridge weakens ane leaves a weakness to the north of
Lane. This will allow the tropical cyclone to begin gaining
latitude a little more quickly by 48 hours.

The models are struggling with a couple of factors that make the
track forecast beyond 48 hours very challenging. One is the
evolution of a new ridge which develops to the east and southeast of
Lane, and the other is the effect of gradually increasing shear. The
ECMWF is stronger with the ridge, and starts shearing the system
sooner, so the track is on the left side of the guidance envelope.
The GFS and NAVGEM are quite a bit weaker with the ridge, and keep
Lane away from the westerly shear longer. There do not appear to be
any clear signals at this point to suggest which track to favor,
and so we continue to follow the consensus guidance which is down
the middle of an uncomfortably large guidance envelope. A turn more
toward the west is expected toward the end of the period as Lane is
expected to be decoupled and move as a shallower system in the
trades. The rather large uncertainty in the track forecast
necessitates close attention by interests in the Hawaiian Islands
over the next couple of days. It is important to not focus your
attention on the exact forecast track, and be prepared for changes
to the forecast.

Weak to moderate southwesterly shear and sea surface temperatures
near 28C are sufficient to allow Lane to maintain intensity for the
next 24 hours or so. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
due to difficult to forecast eyewall replacement cycles. As
mentioned before, increasing shear will lead to a gradual weakening
trend at first, with more rapid weakening expected beyond 72 hours
as Lane approaches stronger winds aloft from a subtropical jet
stream.

The larger than normal uncertainty in the future track of Lane
necessitates close attention by interests in the Hawaiian Islands
over the next few days as Lane approaches the islands. It is
important not to focus on the exact forecast track, and be prepared
for changes to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 13.8N 150.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 14.0N 151.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 14.3N 153.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 14.8N 154.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 15.7N 155.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 17.9N 157.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 20.0N 159.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 20.8N 161.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

[CrazyC83]

If CPHC goes down for whatever reason (i.e. power outages), NHC is the backup, correct?

[Alyono]

would not be surprised if we don't have a category 5 tomorrow

[supercane4867]

Lane appears to be intensifying. 130kt is a good bet for next recon.

[Yellow Evan]

If CPHC goes down for whatever reason (i.e. power outages), NHC is the backup, correct?

Yes.

[Chris90]

ADT going Vertical! What does everyone expect when Recon arrives in 2 hrs?
125knots is my guess

Considering his improvement on satellite combined with a SSMI pass from a little over an hour ago, I'm going to be bullish and guess they find SFMR winds in the ballpark of 135kts (133-137 range). It looked like he was going through an eyewall replacement a few hours ago with an ASMR2 pass, but that SSMI pass suggests it is done or very close to finishing.

Wow that was quick!


In 2 hours by the time recon gets to the center, the winds (hopefully) should be caught up.

Considering how fast it happened, and the difference in appearance over just 2-3 hours, I'm wondering if this was just one of those eyewall melding situations. If this were a true eyewall replacement cycle, it should have taken longer for that outer eyewall to choke off the inner, and longer for the inner remnants to dissipate. The outer wasn't even fully established at 2258 with the ASMR2 pass. My guess is it just fed into the established eyewall and strengthened it. Less of an eyewall replacement cycle, more of an eyewall reinforcement cycle.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm a little disappointed we didn't get to have recon data during this amazingly quick ERC to be honest.

[Kingarabian]

would not be surprised if we don't have a category 5 tomorrow

??

[Yellow Evan]

TPPZ01 PGTW 210256

A. HURRICANE 14E (LANE)

B. 21/0231Z

C. 13.89N

D. 150.17W

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE