CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#681 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:07 pm

Image

Flooding could huge if this decouples and moves west due to interaction with the Big Island.

Probably the biggest doom runs I've seen in the EPAC outside of Patricia.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#682 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:07 pm

WTNT82 EGRR 210402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 149.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2018 0 13.5N 149.6W 983 57
1200UTC 21.08.2018 12 14.0N 151.4W 990 57
0000UTC 22.08.2018 24 14.2N 152.6W 989 51
1200UTC 22.08.2018 36 14.7N 153.8W 986 50
0000UTC 23.08.2018 48 15.4N 155.1W 983 56
1200UTC 23.08.2018 60 16.1N 156.1W 982 56
0000UTC 24.08.2018 72 17.2N 156.6W 979 56
1200UTC 24.08.2018 84 18.7N 156.5W 974 65
0000UTC 25.08.2018 96 19.8N 157.0W 1000 48
1200UTC 25.08.2018 108 19.7N 157.9W 1003 34
0000UTC 26.08.2018 120 19.4N 158.9W 1004 32
1200UTC 26.08.2018 132 18.9N 160.1W 1005 27
0000UTC 27.08.2018 144 18.9N 161.2W 1005 27

could not have had a worse initialization
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#683 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:09 pm

UKMET barely misses the Big Island, despite a horse you know what initialization
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#684 Postby Siker » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:09 pm

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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#685 Postby StruThiO » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:10 pm

:eek: I've held off commenting until now, but the situation seems to only be getting scarier. Good luck and stay safe King and Hawaiian residents, hoping gfs doesn't even come close to verifying.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#686 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:11 pm

Alyono wrote:WTNT82 EGRR 210402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 149.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2018 0 13.5N 149.6W 983 57
1200UTC 21.08.2018 12 14.0N 151.4W 990 57
0000UTC 22.08.2018 24 14.2N 152.6W 989 51
1200UTC 22.08.2018 36 14.7N 153.8W 986 50
0000UTC 23.08.2018 48 15.4N 155.1W 983 56
1200UTC 23.08.2018 60 16.1N 156.1W 982 56
0000UTC 24.08.2018 72 17.2N 156.6W 979 56
1200UTC 24.08.2018 84 18.7N 156.5W 974 65
0000UTC 25.08.2018 96 19.8N 157.0W 1000 48
1200UTC 25.08.2018 108 19.7N 157.9W 1003 34
0000UTC 26.08.2018 120 19.4N 158.9W 1004 32
1200UTC 26.08.2018 132 18.9N 160.1W 1005 27
0000UTC 27.08.2018 144 18.9N 161.2W 1005 27

could not have had a worse initialization


What is going on over here
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#687 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:14 pm

the UKMET interacts with the Big Island. It is in the topography area based upon that plot
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#688 Postby Kazmit » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:14 pm

Before the season started, I heard a lot of talk about a big season for Hawaii and the cpac in general. Hector was an indicator of this. Unfortunately, this could be a historic storm for the state.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#689 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:15 pm

StruThiO wrote::eek: I've held off commenting until now, but the situation seems to only be getting scarier. Good luck and stay safe King and Hawaiian residents, hoping gfs doesn't even come close to verifying.


at this point, may want to take the GFS and run. The GFS affects relatively few people. UKMET may actually be worse as it goes after the population center. Anything toward Maui or Oahu will be catastrophic
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#690 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:17 pm

massive east shift by Canadian
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#691 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:19 pm

Image

Here comes T6.0.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#692 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:20 pm

Image

No more B ring but here comes WMG.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#693 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:23 pm

Really warm eye now.

Image
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#694 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:27 pm

Should have the center fix within the next half hour. But the strongest winds would in the NE quad right?
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#695 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:29 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Should have the center fix within the next half hour. But the strongest winds would in the NE quad right?


RFQ would be the N in this case as it's moving generally W.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#696 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:29 pm

This for sure underwent an ERC. Windfield per recon is broader than before.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#697 Postby Chris90 » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:32 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Should have the center fix within the next half hour. But the strongest winds would in the NE quad right?


They should be. General rule of thumb is take its current heading and add 90 degrees to the right to find area where strongest winds should be located. Should be somewhere around the NNW-NNE portion of the eyewall.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#698 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:33 pm

Image

Very weird end of the run. Ex-Lane hanging around as it recurves OTS.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#699 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:36 pm

Alyono, would that UKMET shift the cone east?
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#700 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:39 pm

CMC east shift:

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