CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

GFS a bit west, but that initial weakening...

18z GFS through 48 hours.

[Alyono]

Kona landfall

[Blown Away]

Lane appears to be moving slightly S of the forecast track. Interested to see if Lane passes N of 15N before or after 155W. The timing of the NW turn is crucial.

[Chris90]

I know it can be frustrating that they didn't upgrade when it is definitely looking like there is enough evidence for Cat 5, but this is a situation the CPHC doesn't have to deal with frequently, it must be incredibly stressful for them. They don't have to deal with these situations nearly as frequently as the NHC, and I think quite a few of the forecasters at NHC have been there for a long time with a wealth of experience as well.
I'd say they are doing pretty good for the situation. I'm not quite sure why they keep factoring satellite estimates in when they have recon data, but satellite estimates are probably what they are most used to. It's not like they have recon available to them usually with the kind of frequency they have had over the past 3 weeks.

Continued thoughts go out to all in the islands. Fingers crossed this doesn't deliver the potential impacts that are possible.

[Kingarabian]

Theres a serious dilemma here. The track seems to be figured out, but the intensity is not. The forecast calls for the storm to weaken due to the models showing (what's been so far) artificial weakening, thus probably delaying warnings and valuable prep time.

[Ntxw]

I know it can be frustrating that they didn't upgrade when it is definitely looking like there is enough evidence for Cat 5, but this is a situation the CPHC doesn't have to deal with frequently, it must be incredibly stressful for them. They don't have to deal with these situations nearly as frequently as the NHC, and I think quite a few of the forecasters at NHC have been there for a long time with a wealth of experience as well.
I'd say they are doing pretty good for the situation. I'm not quite sure why they keep factoring satellite estimates in when they have recon data, but satellite estimates are probably what they are most used to. It's not like they have recon available to them usually with the kind of frequency they have had over the past 3 weeks.

Continued thoughts go out to all in the islands. Fingers crossed this doesn't deliver the potential impacts that are possible.

It will get worked out semantics, there is sufficient evidence this thing is a cat 5. The rating is for the books anyway, but sensible effects to the islands is dangerous either way.

[Bocadude85]

Theres a serious dilemma here. The track seems to be figured out, but the intensity is not. The forecast calls for the storm to weaken due to the models showing (what's been so far) artificial weakening, thus probably delaying warnings and valuable prep time.

I’m sorry but I highly doubt the forecast strength of Lane in the models has delayed additional watches or warnings being issued.

[Cyclenall]

6 mb drop in an hour is pretty significant.

really no reason not to upgrade given the data.

You can really see why on satellite with that last frame of the eye becoming supreme-tier. Now Lane looks like a record book entry.

I checked a forecast from 48 hours ago to see what Lane was suppose to be at intensity wise currently:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 13.5N 144.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 13.8N 146.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 14.1N 148.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 14.3N 150.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 14.6N 152.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 15.2N 155.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 16.5N 158.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 18.2N 161.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

Instead of weakening to a category 2 hurricane, it became a category 5! 45 knots off...

[mcheer23]

Might go down to Hawaii, however not sure of the best place to go.

[Kingarabian]

Theres a serious dilemma here. The track seems to be figured out, but the intensity is not. The forecast calls for the storm to weaken due to the models showing (what's been so far) artificial weakening, thus probably delaying warnings and valuable prep time.

I’m sorry but I highly doubt the forecast strength of Lane in the models has delayed additional watches or warnings being issued.

Wouldnt a stronger system have a larger wind radius??

[Kingarabian]

6 mb drop in an hour is pretty significant.

really no reason not to upgrade given the data.

You can really see why on satellite with that last frame of the eye becoming supreme-tier. Now Lane looks like a record book entry.

I checked a forecast from 48 hours ago to see what Lane was suppose to be at intensity wise currently:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 13.5N 144.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 13.8N 146.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 14.1N 148.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 14.3N 150.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 14.6N 152.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 15.2N 155.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 16.5N 158.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 18.2N 161.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

Instead of weakening to a category 2 hurricane, it became a category 5! 45 knots off...

Its pretty crazy.

[somethingfunny]

Theres a serious dilemma here. The track seems to be figured out, but the intensity is not. The forecast calls for the storm to weaken due to the models showing (what's been so far) artificial weakening, thus probably delaying warnings and valuable prep time.

Go get your supplies right now - step away from the computer except to research hurricane preparation resources and get ready!!! Once the hurricane watch is issued for Oahu County (in a few hour, right when everyone is getting out of work) there will be utter pandemonium at the stores. Supply shortages are a real possibility with how isolated your state is.

[Kingarabian]

Theres a serious dilemma here. The track seems to be figured out, but the intensity is not. The forecast calls for the storm to weaken due to the models showing (what's been so far) artificial weakening, thus probably delaying warnings and valuable prep time.

Go get your supplies right now - step away from the computer except to research hurricane preparation resources and get ready!!! Once the hurricane watch is issued for Oahu County (in a few hour, right when everyone is getting out of work) there will be utter pandemonium at the stores. Supply shortages are a real possibility with how isolated your state is.

I have 10 cases of water in storage.
Batteries
Flash lights
Canned goods

Going to buy plywood and sandbags later on today.

[Mauistorms]

Kingarabian you said the track is figured out? Is that what CPHC is showing? So no direct hit to Maui or Oahu? We are getting nervous over here.

[1900hurricane]

Extrapolated pressure and core temperature show signs of increased strengthening this pass.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian you said the track is figured out? Is that what CPHC is showing? So no direct hit to Maui or Oahu? We are getting nervous over here.

The large scale synoptic pattern that is going to allow Lane to come up and hit Hawaii is what's figured out. The fine details like which island will be affected the most is yet to be determined. But it's too much of a risk to wait that long - prep regardless.

[NotoSans]

Still intensifying as per recon. Central pressure has further fallen, and unflagged SFMR winds of 140KT and flight-level winds of 146KT were found in the NE quad. Either 140 or 145 knots would be a reasonable intensity estimate now.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like the pressure is down another 4 to 5 mb.

[1900hurricane]

I'd classify this as ++ eye presentation on visible imagery.

[NotoSans]

Kingarabian you said the track is figured out? Is that what CPHC is showing? So no direct hit to Maui or Oahu? We are getting nervous over here.

Start your preparation now. Impossible to determine the exact track at the moment but it’s very likely that the Haiwaian islands will be affected. Even if LANE does not make a direct hit to Oahu, its effect can be felt well away from the center (e.g. winds and rainfall). Never a bad thing to prepare for the worst.