CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1261 Postby ncapps » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:24 pm

pgoss11 wrote:
Alyono wrote:all recon has been cancelled


Because???


Because of evacuations at PHIK.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1262 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:24 pm

cjrciadt wrote:
Alyono wrote:all recon has been cancelled

What the!!!!!!



Cannot have planes on the ground. It's what we were discussing yesterday. Cannot fly out of Johnston and it appears Christmas Island is not an option either
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1263 Postby bg1 » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:24 pm

If Lane takes longer to weaken it won't take as pronounced a west turn near Oahu as the models say, correct?
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1264 Postby boulderrr » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:24 pm

Approaching the wind shear:

Image
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1265 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:25 pm

pgoss11 wrote:
Alyono wrote:all recon has been cancelled


Because???


They're evacuating the planes and crew due to the potential impact on their base on Oahu.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1266 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:26 pm

Was afraid of that with recon, planes can't take off once the winds start up(same as any airport with passenger jets), horrible timing though

Not many options on an island chain in the middle of the ocean
Last edited by Brent on Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1267 Postby pgoss11 » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:27 pm

wxman57 wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:
Alyono wrote:all recon has been cancelled


Because???


They're evacuating the planes and crew due to the potential impact on their base on Oahu.


Of course. Makes perfect sense.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1268 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:32 pm

Recon off an aircraft carrier? Either way is this only the USAF flights and not the noaa ones?
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1269 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:33 pm

BobHarlem wrote:Recon off an aircraft carrier? Either way is this only the USAF flights and not the noaa ones?


NOAA P3 is also heading home
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1270 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:38 pm

Image

T6.5. White side thinner and eye is barely WMG.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1271 Postby pgoss11 » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:49 pm

The CDO on the left side looks flattened out and the CDO is starting to look elongated from north to south. Is this caused from shear or is Lane turning more to the north west now?
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1272 Postby cjrciadt » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:59 pm

pgoss11 wrote:The CDO on the left side looks flattened out and the CDO is starting to look elongated from north to south. Is this caused from shear or is Lane turning more to the north west now?

Yes probably
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1273 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:05 pm

pgoss11 wrote:The CDO on the left side looks flattened out and the CDO is starting to look elongated from north to south. Is this caused from shear or is Lane turning more to the north west now?


It's been my experience that this signature is usually a sign of either shear or an imminent turn. In this case it could be a combination of both.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1274 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:07 pm

12Z Euro:

Image
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1275 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:09 pm

12z Euro shifts east again:

Image
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1276 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:11 pm

that is one SLOW track by the EC. Major flooding likely

I would not be surprised if rain rates are similar to Harvey. But one big difference is the mudslides and landslides that will occur
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1277 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:12 pm

The CDO has definitely warmed some from sunlight if from nothing else.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1278 Postby boulderrr » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:18 pm

12Z Euro shows a westward turn just in time to avoid landfall (at 75 hours).
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1279 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:24 pm

boulderrr wrote:12Z Euro shows a westward turn just in time to avoid landfall (at 75 hours).


Due to a shallower system. We need Lane to be significantly weaker than this for the any west bends to occur.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1280 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:25 pm

Have there been any other storms where a turn to the W was forecast as it decayed and instead this continued NW aside from a few near Baja California Sur?
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