CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[boulderrr]

This is Lane's closest pass in the 12Z Euro run:

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/RyanRickert4/status/1032325984958275584




 https://twitter.com/the_realJeremyD/status/1032113834805288960




 https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/1032322750998704128

[Kingarabian]

Have there been any other storms where a turn to the W was forecast as it decayed and instead this continued NW aside from a few near Baja California Sur?

The worst part is that this turn to the west is due to a shallower weaker system predicted and the models haven't done a good job with Lanes intensity to this point.

[storminabox]

Lane is definitely NOT weakening. In fact, to me, it appears to be strengthening.

[OahuWahine]

From the 8 am update:

At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 155.7 West. The eyewall of
Hurricane Lane has been intermittently seen on the Naalehu
weather radar over the past few hours. Lane is moving toward the
west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to
become northwest later today, followed by a turn to the
north-northwest on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from
Thursday through Saturday.

Is this the first time they've allowed for the possibility of it being over the islands? I don't remember seeing this phrasing in the other discussions.

[NDG]

I think the biggest impact to the Hawaiian Islands even without having to make landfall will be the potential catastrophic floods because Lane is going to be moving very slow from Thursday night through at least Saturday night with most of the Islands over the wet side of the storm.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF has Lane making a comeback on Day 7.

[cycloneye]

@Accu_Jesse
Islands won't be razed by Cat 5 winds BUT 20+ inches of rain from Hurricane #Lane could cause isolated deadly mudslides. Only 6 people were killed by Hurricane Iniki '92 -- the island's worst storm on record BUT it was a fast mover, Lane will be much slower = more rain.

 https://twitter.com/Accu_Jesse/status/1032337346673475585

[KC7NEC]

IIRC Before Harvey hit Houston with devastating rains it had actually become a TS, not even a Hurricane. I am now seeing online many people talking about the Cat # of Lane dropping off, or the storm not making landfall. Is there too much focus on the storm category and wind and not enough on the clear potential for massive rains, floods, mudslides with this storm?

[Kingarabian]

Unfortunately it looks like my opportunity to evacuate if needed is going out the window. For 1.4million Hawaii residents, there are only 270k shelter places available statewide.

So I'm at a dilemma here. I have a small apartment on the ground floor in a 2 story building made out of concrete. I was planning on hunkering down in there if Lane affected Oahu with strong hurricane winds. Now, there's a possibility that Lane affects Oahu as a huge flood threat. However my apartment is prone to flooding, because it's at street level. My other unit is a full size home downslope on a hill, but also 15 feet off the ground (I don't know why they built it this way, but we just use the bottom as a basement)and It was built in the 70s, -- the building materials have begun to go bad (my roof leaks when it rains). But it's never gotten flooded. However it's at huge risk to be leveled if hurricane force winds reach it.

So I have to pick my poison here... sit in a low level apartment and possibly get flooded, but be safe from high winds. Or sit in a creaky house, avoid flooding waters, but risk getting damage from winds.

[pgoss11]

Unfortunately it looks like my opportunity to evacuate if needed is going out the window. For 1.4million Hawaii residents, there are only 270k shelter places available statewide.

So I'm at a dilemma here. I have a small apartment on the ground floor in a 2 story building made out of concrete. I was planning on hunkering down in there if Lane affected Oahu with strong hurricane winds. Now, there's a possibility that Lane affects Oahu as a huge flood threat. However my apartment is prone to flooding, because it's at street level. My other unit is a full size home downslope on a hill, but also 15 feet off the ground (I don't know why they built it this way, but we just use the bottom as a basement)and It was built in the 70s, -- the building materials have begun to go bad (my roof leaks when it rains). But it's never gotten flooded. However it's at huge risk to be leveled if hurricane force winds reach it.

So I have to pick my poison here... sit in a low level apartment and possibly get flooded, but be safe from high winds. Or sit in a creaky house, avoid flooding waters, but risk getting damage from winds.

Water is almost always the deadlier force to contend with. I'm sure flooding kills more people than winds. You still have another day before you have to make that decision. Sending prayers and wishing you the best of luck.

[Kingarabian]

From the 8 am update:

At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 155.7 West. The eyewall of
Hurricane Lane has been intermittently seen on the Naalehu
weather radar over the past few hours. Lane is moving toward the
west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to
become northwest later today, followed by a turn to the
north-northwest on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from
Thursday through Saturday.

Is this the first time they've allowed for the possibility of it being over the islands? I don't remember seeing this phrasing in the other discussions.

Always been there.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS memebrs shift east some over Oahu, some much closer to Oahu than the operational Euro.

[Kingarabian]

I think the biggest impact to the Hawaiian Islands even without having to make landfall will be the potential catastrophic floods because Lane is going to be moving very slow from Thursday night through at least Saturday night with most of the Islands over the wet side of the storm.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/8Ni5BKE.png[img]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/s2E22ae.png[img]

Thank you for posting these NDG. Do you know how much rain came down when TD Darby passed by Oahu? Peoples homes were flooded during that event, and I wanted to compare.

[txwatcher91]

Unfortunately it looks like my opportunity to evacuate if needed is going out the window. For 1.4million Hawaii residents, there are only 270k shelter places available statewide.

So I'm at a dilemma here. I have a small apartment on the ground floor in a 2 story building made out of concrete. I was planning on hunkering down in there if Lane affected Oahu with strong hurricane winds. Now, there's a possibility that Lane affects Oahu as a huge flood threat. However my apartment is prone to flooding, because it's at street level. My other unit is a full size home downslope on a hill, but also 15 feet off the ground (I don't know why they built it this way, but we just use the bottom as a basement)and It was built in the 70s, -- the building materials have begun to go bad (my roof leaks when it rains). But it's never gotten flooded. However it's at huge risk to be leveled if hurricane force winds reach it.

So I have to pick my poison here... sit in a low level apartment and possibly get flooded, but be safe from high winds. Or sit in a creaky house, avoid flooding waters, but risk getting damage from winds.

Me personally, I would take the chance with the wind since flooding is a lot harder to escape and usually ends up being more dangerous. The rain right now appears to be the higher threat as well since Lane should, in theory, weaken before the closest approach or landfall. The Euro is spitting out 2-4 FEET of rain in places... I don't think I'd want to be in a flood prone area with that much water coming in... but ultimately you should make the decision you feel is best for your safety. Best of luck and try to keep us updated as you can.

[KC7NEC]

Unfortunately it looks like my opportunity to evacuate if needed is going out the window. For 1.4million Hawaii residents, there are only 270k shelter places available statewide.

So I'm at a dilemma here. I have a small apartment on the ground floor in a 2 story building made out of concrete. I was planning on hunkering down in there if Lane affected Oahu with strong hurricane winds. Now, there's a possibility that Lane affects Oahu as a huge flood threat. However my apartment is prone to flooding, because it's at street level. My other unit is a full size home downslope on a hill, but also 15 feet off the ground (I don't know why they built it this way, but we just use the bottom as a basement)and It was built in the 70s, -- the building materials have begun to go bad (my roof leaks when it rains). But it's never gotten flooded. However it's at huge risk to be leveled if hurricane force winds reach it.

So I have to pick my poison here... sit in a low level apartment and possibly get flooded, but be safe from high winds. Or sit in a creaky house, avoid flooding waters, but risk getting damage from winds.

Me personally, I would take the chance with the wind since flooding is a lot harder to escape and usually ends up being more dangerous. The rain right now appears to be the higher threat as well since Lane should, in theory, weaken before the closest approach or landfall. The Euro is spitting out 2-4 FEET of rain in places... I don't think I'd want to be in a flood prone area with that much water coming in... but ultimately you should make the decision you feel is best for your safety. Best of luck and try to keep us updated as you can.

I would second this. Remember that it's not just flooding but Hawaii is mountainous and there will likely be mudslides or debris flows.

[Kingarabian]

looks like I'll have no choice but to hunker down and hope Gods grace is bestowed on us all.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

12Z Euro shows a westward turn just in time to avoid landfall (at 75 hours).

Due to a shallower system. We need Lane to be significantly weaker than this for the any west bends to occur.

What is the physical reason a weaker system would be more likely to turn?

[Kingarabian]

12Z Euro shows a westward turn just in time to avoid landfall (at 75 hours).

Due to a shallower system. We need Lane to be significantly weaker than this for the any west bends to occur.

What is the physical reason a weaker system would be more likely to turn?

It'll be steered by a different level, the low level flow, basically the easterly winds around Hawaii @ 850mb.

[Alyono]

I think the biggest impact to the Hawaiian Islands even without having to make landfall will be the potential catastrophic floods because Lane is going to be moving very slow from Thursday night through at least Saturday night with most of the Islands over the wet side of the storm.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/8Ni5BKE.png[img]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/s2E22ae.png[img]

Thank you for posting these NDG. Do you know how much rain came down when TD Darby passed by Oahu? Peoples homes were flooded during that event, and I wanted to compare.

peak was 10-12 inches from Darby