CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

Im a little hesitant to see so much weakening from shear. once it begins to move northerly the relative shear will change. current shear analyzed to its nw will be reduced as it moves with it.

[supercane4867]

18z GFS has Lane moving NE from hr 42-54 with a direct landfall on Maui

[Kingarabian]

Im a little hesitant to see so much weakening from shear. once it begins to move northerly the relative shear will change. current shear analyzed to its nw will be reduced as it moves with it.

I've been hesitant since the get go towards the rapid weakening advertised since Saturday that has not materialized.

[Aric Dunn]

average motion the last 5 hours appears to be about 305 ish. so almost NW.

though the last 15 min on radar loos like it wobbled a little more to the nnw.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/firebomb56/status/1032383514677731328

[tolakram]

Im a little hesitant to see so much weakening from shear. once it begins to move northerly the relative shear will change. current shear analyzed to its nw will be reduced as it moves with it.

I've been hesitant since the get go towards the rapid weakening advertised since Saturday that has not materialized.

Good points, but regardless of weak or strong the amount of rain is going to be the story. I hope people prepare regardless of the latest position forecast.

[supercane4867]

Eyewall coming into view on long range radar

[Aric Dunn]

Im a little hesitant to see so much weakening from shear. once it begins to move northerly the relative shear will change. current shear analyzed to its nw will be reduced as it moves with it.

I've been hesitant since the get go towards the rapid weakening advertised since Saturday that has not materialized.

Good points, but regardless of weak or strong the amount of rain is going to be the story. I hope people prepare regardless of the latest position forecast.

yeah, though being that the majority of buildings in Hawaii are not exactly hurricane proof... anything stronger than a cat 2 would be equally as bad as flooding..

[Kingarabian]

I've been hesitant since the get go towards the rapid weakening advertised since Saturday that has not materialized.

Good points, but regardless of weak or strong the amount of rain is going to be the story. I hope people prepare regardless of the latest position forecast.

yeah, though being that the majority of buildings in Hawaii are not exactly hurricane proof... anything stronger than a cat 2 would be equally as bad as flooding..

I doubt my house lasts with a minimal cat.1. TS Iselle caused 80million damage as a 60mph storm.

[Yellow Evan]

B ring thickening

[boulderrr]

I doubt my house lasts with a minimal cat.1. TS Iselle caused 80million damage as a 60mph storm.

Much of Iselle's damage was due to Albizia trees falling on structures as opposed to significant wind damage to the structure itself. I traveled to the Big Island to assess damages after the storm and it was amazing to see how neighborhoods with Alibizias were devastated, but those without looked completely fine.

[BYG Jacob]

Eyewall coming into view on long range radar

Man that is a small core

[Alyono]

about a 30 nm SW shift in the HWRF through 18 hours

[Yellow Evan]

I doubt my house lasts with a minimal cat.1. TS Iselle caused 80million damage as a 60mph storm.

Iselle only destroyed 11 homes. Even Iniki only destroyed 1,400 homes.

[JaxGator]

The Navy is evacuating its ships from Pearl Harbor as Lane gets closer. I also suspect Hickam will soon or is now evacuating its planes too. In addition to the Air Force and NOAA ending their recon missions for the same reason. Shame we won't have the Hurricane Hunter's out there though, but I know they have to for safety.

[Kingarabian]

I doubt my house lasts with a minimal cat.1. TS Iselle caused 80million damage as a 60mph storm.

Iselle only destroyed 11 homes. Even Iniki only destroyed 1,400 homes.

That's probably total destruction. But with my house in a hill side + 15 feet on 1inch foundation (it's basically a full sized trailer), it's not going to win many battles. Plus damages can easily run into 10s of thousands of dollars.

[Kingarabian]

about a 30 nm SW shift in the HWRF through 18 hours

Bitlg shift NE rowards the islands on the HMON.

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF is similar to the GFS solution. It has Lane moving NE towards Maui

[Alyono]

HWRF has a legit cat 2 into Maui

[floridasun78]

any chaser in Hawaii? i think twc sending two their not seen live report yet