CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[txwatcher91]

00z GFS has a direct hit on Maui.

GFS has insisted on direct landfall in this area for days while Euro has been consistently west. Judging by how poorly the Euro has been with Lane so far with intensity and track I would lean towards the GFS solution.

[Twisted-core]

Cloudtops are more symmetric and cooler, but the eye temperature has dropped significantly today, now down to ~-9C. The 1z microwave pass also showed the eyewall was open. CPHC is right in showing and forecasting weakening.

It did look weaker in the sse,but open without recon confirmation is a bold call given other wavelengths micro's are not conclusive.

[TheStormExpert]

00z GFS has a direct hit on Maui.

GFS has insisted on direct landfall in this area for days while Euro has been consistently west. Judging by how poorly the Euro has been with Lane so far with intensity and track I would lean towards the GFS solution.

All models have been poor with initializing the intensity with Lane for starters, secondly Lane has been moving more south and west of track if anything.

[Alyono]

that's a Big Island landfall for the GFS

[Siker]

00z UKMET is pretty similar to the GFS with that northeastward movement.

[txwatcher91]

00z GFS has a direct hit on Maui.

GFS has insisted on direct landfall in this area for days while Euro has been consistently west. Judging by how poorly the Euro has been with Lane so far with intensity and track I would lean towards the GFS solution.

All models have been poor with initializing the intensity with Lane for starters, secondly Lane has been moving more south and west of track if anything.

Recently Lane has been a touch south/west of track at times due to wobbles but by and large the Euro for days has been way to weak with it and way too far south. GFS was the first to pick up on the Hawaii threat and has been leading the way. At this point though it’s just a wait and see not knowing how the terrain, shear, and intensity will affect the track. Hopefully everyone in the potential path is prepared and ready.

[Alyono]

and the Canadian has shifted even farther away from the islands.

How is this possible that models disagree this much after 36 hours

[Kingarabian]

and the Canadian has shifted even farther away from the islands.

How is this possible that models disagree this much after 36 hours

The Canadian is probably broken at this point. Keeps this as a Ts the whole way.

[BobHarlem]

Some of the private weather station rain gauges around Hilo, HI already going over 6". Like this one https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... KHIKEAAU23

[Haris]

watch the euro go run to the gfs lol. but man , these are stubborn models that have no want to change their styles!

[Twisted-core]

If i was a betting man my $$$ would be laid on the the previous 12z ukmet track
with the south westerlies nudging the system unfortunately island bound.

[Kingarabian]

watch the euro go run to the gfs lol. but man , these are stubborn models that have no want to change their styles!

It would be unprecedented and chaotic if the Euro continues its western track and we have this much spread 36-48hours before landfall.

[Alyono]

watch the euro go run to the gfs lol. but man , these are stubborn models that have no want to change their styles!

It would be unprecedented and chaotic if the Euro continues its western track and we have this much spread 36-48hours before landfall.

The one big strike against the GFS is its ensembles are all west of Hawaii

[Kingarabian]

watch the euro go run to the gfs lol. but man , these are stubborn models that have no want to change their styles!

It would be unprecedented and chaotic if the Euro continues its western track and we have this much spread 36-48hours before landfall.

The one big strike against the GFS is its ensembles are all west of Hawaii

The mean is, likely due to false weaker ones sending this west. Stronger members mainly hit Maui/Oahu/Kaui

[Kingarabian]

I understand a track towards Maui. But the sharp hook north east could be indicative that big island terrain is influencing the track.

[Kingarabian]

Eye is cooling quicker now. Its days as a strong Cat.4 and Cat.5 are likely over I hope. Now we see how long it can maintain its status as a Cat3/4.

[Haris]

These were my thoughts earlier today , i was quite in favor of the euro .

right now , I would say a 35% chance exists of a GFS solution .

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 AUG 2018 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 15:53:59 N Lon : 156:30:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 948.4mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -21.0C Cloud Region Temp : -70.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[Aric Dunn]

and the Canadian has shifted even farther away from the islands.

How is this possible that models disagree this much after 36 hours

lee side troughing ..

[Alyono]

These were my thoughts earlier today , i was quite in favor of the euro .

right now , I would say a 35% chance exists of a GFS solution .

scenario 2 causes far more flooding than does a direct hit