CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

For now I will stick with the dynamical models. the localized turbulent flow off of the big island will be better modeled.

[AJC3]

This is always a good time to advertise Brian McNoldy's GREAT site for long, self-updating radar loops...

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/

[Kingarabian]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 AUG 2018 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 15:53:59 N Lon : 156:30:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 948.4mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -21.0C Cloud Region Temp : -70.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Oh damn the numbers are still rising?

[Mauistorms]

These were my thoughts earlier today , i was quite in favor of the euro .

right now , I would say a 35% chance exists of a GFS solution .

scenario 2 causes far more flooding than does a direct hit

From where I'm sitting on the eastern slope of Maui it seems that scenario one would be favorable as the GFS spends a lot more time around me.

[galaxy401]

Wow, the GFS scenario makes it look like Lane has a mind of its own regarding Maui. That'll be a disaster for the Hawaiian islands.

[Mauistorms]

These were my thoughts earlier today , i was quite in favor of the euro .

right now , I would say a 35% chance exists of a GFS solution .

scenario 2 causes far more flooding than does a direct hit

From where I'm sitting on the eastern slope of Maui it seems that scenario one would be favorable as the GFS spends a lot more time around me.

I mean the opposite of what I just said.

[Kingarabian]

HMON stronger and more east.

[Kingarabian]

00z FV3 would be a nightmare flooding scenario:

[Kingarabian]

HMON has a track closer to the UKMET.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/qblCOQz
GFS close up is 00z @10 metres. looking identical to the 12z ukmet.

[Kingarabian]

00z HWRF looks like a cat.2 into Maui.

[Cyclenall]

These were my thoughts earlier today , i was quite in favor of the euro .

right now , I would say a 35% chance exists of a GFS solution .

scenario 2 causes far more flooding than does a direct hit

Wouldn't both cause the same amount of flooding? Mainly depends on how long the storm sticks around the islands?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

I'm in the camp that believes Lane will mainly be a catastrophic flooding disaster for Hawaii.

[Alyono]

scenario 2 is worse as it causes that southerly flow for all islands, including Oahu. Scenario 1 would restrict that to Maui and the Big Island

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/AmPUtOu
The airport and kalada getting some weather as per gfs

[storminabox]

I feel as if we should be paying closest attention to where the strongest members take Lane. This storm is much stronger and will likely remain much stronger than a lot of the members that keep this west.

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

Euro makes this a TS in 48 hours, much more west on this run.

[Alyono]

EC follows CMC. No major impacts at all

This is a $%%!^@*$%$# joke in 2018 that we have this much divergence less than 48 hours from major impacts

[Alyono]

which of the GFS/UKMET or EC/CMC busts, should be given ZERO weight for a very long time

[Mauistorms]

Getting moderate rain now NE maui