CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS initialized:

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS 00-24 hours:


Not budging.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS landfall will be over Maui or Hawaii it looks like:

[Kingarabian]

Difference between the 00z Euro and 06z GFS:

[BobHarlem]

The official track is somewhere between the Euro and GFS, I don't think the runs this morning really will change that. I guess the critical time for these model runs is tonight, if there's any hint of east movement late tonight then the GFS is probably closer to being right. I think the rain will remain the big story.

[Nimbus]

Difference between the 00z Euro and 06z GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/eHRoxgR.gif

Notice that in this particular run the pressure is above 990 MB at landfall and Maui gets the weak side of any core winds? You are going to have to micro forecast this one, you might only get hurricane force winds if you are on an exposed ridge. Hopefully people will anchor things like porch awnings that can get blown around. Even a couple cinder blocks or better yet a cable "come along" can keep those in place as long as the winds are below 60 mph.

[Kingarabian]

The official track is somewhere between the Euro and GFS, I don't think the runs this morning really will change that. I guess the critical time for these model runs is tonight, if there's any hint of east movement late tonight then the GFS is probably closer to being right. I think the rain will remain the big story.

For the Euro to verify, it needs to stay on a firm WNW/NW track in a couple of hours.

[Kingarabian]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.4mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -27.1C Cloud Region Temp : -73.2C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

[tolakram]

live IR loop: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=18&lon=-159&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=yellow

[tolakram]

Which model has been better for track in the EPAC?

[Kingarabian]

Which model has been better for track in the EPAC?

Both have been headaches.

In regards to Lane, GFS was the first to show and insist on a northerly track.

[Kingarabian]

06z HWRF lol:

[wxman57]

GFS is quite the odd model out here. Yesterday, it was on the eastern edge of its own ensembles. EC ensembles shifted decidedly farther west overnight. For now, it still appears that the islands will see only low-end TS winds. Lane is already moving west of 157W, which is west of the GFS' 6-hr forecast.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting look on Dvorak right now.

[NDG]

Great to wake up this morning and see that the Euro shifted south and west on its latest run, usually the Euro has the last word. Hopefully this will be the case again but it does not matter, heavy rains are still the biggest threat to Hawaii. IMO.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/dOFxUCW

GFS 06 run is holding serve with the shortwave ruling the track.

[Kingarabian]

Up to 11.46 inches of rain had been reported on the Big Island at Waiakea Experiment Station in the 12 hours ending 11 p.m. HST. Hilo had seen 7.65 inches or rain in that same period of time.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... i-forecast

[BobHarlem]

Eye is starting to fill in on the Satellite, still mostly NW, although there is a hint of a tug north on the loop.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... lor=yellow

[NDG]

GFS is quite the odd model out here. Yesterday, it was on the eastern edge of its own ensembles. EC ensembles shifted decidedly farther west overnight. For now, it still appears that the islands will see only low-end TS winds. Lane is already moving west of 157W, which is west of the GFS' 6-hr forecast.

You are right, while the Euro might have been left biased the GFS has been right biased in the short term, if it would had right all along it would had been making landfall over the big Island of Hawaii tonight.

[Kingarabian]

GFS is quite the odd model out here. Yesterday, it was on the eastern edge of its own ensembles. EC ensembles shifted decidedly farther west overnight. For now, it still appears that the islands will see only low-end TS winds. Lane is already moving west of 157W, which is west of the GFS' 6-hr forecast.

You are right, while the Euro might have been left biased the GFS has been right biased in the short term, if it would had right all along it would had been making landfall over the big Island of Hawaii tonight.

Lane is currently following the CPHC's track to the tee so far. Blends both tracks nicely and so far hasn't been wrong. Hats off to their forecasters, they're doing a good job considering the tough task at hand.