WPAC: CIMARON - Post-Tropical

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/kuPFYYK

looks close to a cat3 if not already.

[mrbagyo]

Wow, Iwo-To is reporting hurricane force gust.
47 kts sustained
69 kts gust
992 mb
RJAW 220000Z 13047G69KT 3500 -SHRA BR SCT008 BKN010 26/25 Q0992 RMK 3ST008 7CU010 A2932

[1900hurricane]

DT is actually up to 6.0, which is typical of an entry level category 4.

TPPN10 PGTW 220029

A. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON)

B. 22/0000Z

C. 24.13N

D. 139.91E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/1835Z 23.10N 141.10E MMHS
21/2052Z 23.50N 140.67E SSMS
21/2106Z 23.58N 140.72E GPMI


LOWE

[Twisted-core]

Not surprised mic's from many hours ago indicated the possibility off ri with this cyclone.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like JTWC is going with 110 kt for 00Z, which I am fine with.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/uqYpUMP


https://imgur.com/xZPjZFa

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY AS HIGHLY-SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 28-NM EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN
THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T5.5-T6.2 AND REFLECTS THE SIGNIFICANT 6-HOUR INTENSIFICATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY CIMARON WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, CRESTING THE RIDGE AXIS
BETWEEN TAUS 36-48 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN SHIKOKU.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS HONSHU AND EXIT INTO THE SEA OF
JAPAN (SOJ) AS IT BEGINS TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE
SYSTEM HAS PEAKED AND WILL NOW GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND
LAND INTERACTION WITH JAPAN TAKES ITS TOLL. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS IN THE
SOJ BELOW 27 CELSIUS, CONCURRENT WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR
TAU 48 WILL ALSO PROMOTE A MORE RAPID EROSION. BY TAU 72, TY 23W WILL
BECOME A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD
OVER HOKKAIDO. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFUM
AS THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS OVERALL FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1032099954473553920

[NotoSans]

Surrounding convection has weakened significantly over the past few hours. SOULIK has first brought strong vertical wind shear, then caused some cold wakes, limiting CIMARON's intensity.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WRAPPING INTO A
SHARPLY OUTLINED 20NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5-T6.0 (102-115KTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, SOME
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VWS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY CIMARON WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, CRESTING THE RIDGE AXIS
AROUND TAU 36 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN SHIKOKU.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS HONSHU AND EXIT INTO THE SEA OF
JAPAN (SOJ) AS IT BEGINS TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM HAS PEAKED AND WILL NOW GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS
INCREASES, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED, AND LAND INTERACTION WITH
JAPAN TAKES ITS TOLL. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS IN THE SOJ BELOW 27
CELSIUS, ALONG WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION STARTING AROUND TAU
48, WILL PROMOTE A MORE RAPID EROSION. BY TAU 72, TY 23W WILL BECOME
A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD JUST
NORTHEAST OF HOKKAIDO. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AFUM AS THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS
OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1032099954473553920



 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1032232651514695681

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS TY 23W REMAINS
WELL ORGANIZED WITH A CLOUD-FILLED BUT EASILY DISCERNIBLE EYE.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC WITH ERODING
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLANK. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CLOUD-FILLED
EYE IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP VERY WELL WITH THE LLC FEATURE IN
THE 222115Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.1-T5.0 AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS SOLID;
HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE IS BEING
SUPPRESSED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM TYPHOON 22W TO THE NORTHWEST.
ADDITIONALLY, RELATIVE VWS REMAINS MODERATE AT 15-20 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY CIMARON WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AROUND TAU 12 SHORTLY AFTER
MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN SHIKOKU. AFTERWARD, IT WILL CROSS
HONSHU AND EXIT INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) AS IT BEGINS TO RECURVE
AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED, AND LAND
INTERACTION WITH JAPAN TAKES ITS TOLL. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS IN THE SOJ
BELOW 27 CELSIUS, ALONG WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION STARTING AT
TAU 36, WILL PROMOTE A MORE RAPID EROSION. BY TAU 48, TY 23W WILL
BECOME A NEAR GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW JUST WEST OF HOKKAIDO.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TRACK
OVER LAND AND THE ANTICIPATED BINARY INTERACTION WITH A SECOND
CYCLONE (TY 22W) IN THE SOJ, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1032424279994978304

[NotoSans]

Making landfall now. Surface observations suggest that central pressure is near 965 to 970 mb.

[doomhaMwx]

Making landfall...

[NotoSans]

Extreme rainfall of 136mm/hr has been recorded in the Kobe Airport. Nearby winds observations are also impressive due to significant channeling effect.

[doomhaMwx]

Record-breaking winds and rain from the 6th TC to hit Japan's Tokushima prefecture since 1951.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 027
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 40.8N 137.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 40.8N 137.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 42.6N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 42.4N 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 41.2N 139.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161 NM WEST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM, WITH A DECOUPLED AND FULLY EXPOSED LLCC
AND EXPANDING ASYMMETRIC CLOUD SHIELD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 240111Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 40-44
KT WIND BARBS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, AND ABOVE A PGTW
SUBTROPICAL FIX OF 35 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF HIGH (30+ KNOTS) VWS UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE
JET AND COOL (24-25 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
TRACK RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CARRIED ALONG BY THE WESTERLY
JET. DUE TO THE POSITION UNDER THE WESTERLY JET AND COOL SSTS, 23W
HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, WITH A 232200Z AMSU CORE
TEMPERATURE CROSS-SECTION SHOWING A BUILDING COLD-CORE ANOMALY AT
MID-LEVELS. 23W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE EAST-
NORTHEAST UNDER THE WESTERLY JET, AND TRANSITION INTO A COLD-CORE
SYSTEM WITH EXPANSIVE WIND FIELDS AND ASYMMETRIC CONVECTION. MODELS
SHOW THAT 23W AND 22W WILL REMAIN DISTINCT SYSTEMS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z
IS 18 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W
(TWENTYFOUR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN